Another stellar week for technical b/o trades.

Last week: was another stellar week for momentum-based technical breakout trades. The previous week was good with trend line breakout trades giving 1,200 pips worth of movement. That pales against last week though with trend line breakouts from charts posted here, here and here leading to the delivery of over 1,800 pips and with one currency pair delivering 3,000+ pips. This post starts with a summary of these successful breakout trades before I move on to cover what I’m watching for next week.

Trend line breakout trades were highly successful last week in helping to target the next directional move on many currency pairs and especially with Gold. Twelve currency pairs, as well as Gold, are setting up again within 4hr or daily chart technical patterns so in the coming week it might be worth keeping an eye on these for any clues about potential breakout moves: Gold, E/U, E/J, A/U, Cable, Kiwi, U/J, G/J, USD/CNH, USD/TRY, GBP/AUD, GBP/NZD and the EUR/AUD.

Successful Trend line breakout trades from last week: Click on charts to enlarge.

  • Gold: In my previous w/e post on Gold I suggested watching this Flag for any new breakout:

The Flag breakout triggered last Monday and gave up to 200 pips:

The triangle breakout delivered 60 pips and triggered a new 4hr chart TC LONG signal. The 4hr TC signal faded though which was not surprising as periods of FX Index divergence favour the capture of 30 min trend trades during the European and US sessions.

  • AUD/USD: My previous w/e post revealed this Flag:

The Flag breakout evolved and delivered over 75 pips. Note how price, up until Friday when this shot was taken, was butting up against the major 3 1/2 year bear trend line. It is currently still in this region:

  • NZD/USD: This was the Flag from my previous w/e post:

The breakout move delivered over 100 pips:

This Kiwi move gave a great 30 min chart TC trade as well:

  • GBP/USD: My w/e post revealed this triangle. Price dipped below the bottom trend line but without any supporting momentum and so I then noted on Tuesday to watch the 1.20 for any make or break move:

A momentum-based breakout move came from a revised triangle, noted in this Tweet, and went on to deliver 100 pips:

Of even better value though was that my algorithm spied a 30 min trade at the end of the Asian session…this TC LONG move gave over 300 pips!

  • Silver: I posted during last week on Silver and suggested watching for any triangle breakout. The chart from that post is shown below:

The Silver breakout move triggered for a 30 cent move!

  • USD/CAD: the chart I posted during last week showed a triangle brewing:

This breakdown made 90 pips or so as it headed down to the key 1.30 region yet again. This remains a make or break level to watch:

GBP pairs: I posted some charts on Twitter during last week noting trend lines to watch for any breakout move following the UK PM May speech. These trend lines proved to be productive and the before and after screen shots reveal just this:

  • GBP/JPY:  the trend line prior to the European session:

The GBP/JPY breakout move eventually delivered up to 350 pips:

  • GBP/AUD: trend line prior to the European session:

The GBP/AUD breakout move delivered around 270 pips:

  • GBP/NZD: the trend line prior to the European session:

The GBP/NZD breakout move delivered around 200 pips:

  • USD/MXN: I had Tweeted in advance to watch these trend lines on the USD/MXN for any momentum-based breakout and these were the charts from that post:

USD/MXN 4hr: 

USD/MXN 30 min: 

This was what I woke to the following morning 🙁 Yet another great 30 min triangle breakout and a new TC signal that triggered during the European or US session without me but giving well over 3,000 pips:

  • USD/TRY: this was another exotic pair I had posted about last week as being worth watching for any momentum-based triangle breakout. The charts from that post are below:

USD/TRY 4hr:

USD/TRY 30 min:

The USD/TRY breakout triggered and gave 350 pips in a triangle breakout move:

This week:

NB: This is a brief update given we’re having a run of hot weather down here with a few 40+ Celsius days (circa 104 Fahrenheit) and the beach, just a few min walk away, is getting a lot of my attention. It is still holiday mode here given the hot summer but there is International cricket and the Aussie Open tennis for entertainment too. I’m still finding I’m missing many good trades given that they trigger during my night but I’m working on coding my algorithm to try and overcome that problem. More on that later as I, hopefully, make progress. It is a holiday here on Thursday and I’m busy next w/e so next week’s w/e update may end up being delayed until the Monday.

Calendar: Keep an eye out for the following economic events Note the lack of ‘meaty’ USD data until Friday with GDP:

Gold: I reviewed Gold yesterday and the the article can be found through this link.

US$: the US$ had been consolidating in the lead up to Trump’s Inauguration but, with this event now out of the way, I’m on the lookout for clues about the next major move. My review of the FX Indices can be found through this link.

Forex: Recent indecision with the US$ has kept a number of currency pairs choppy and some clarity with the next move on the US$ needs to be seen before a clearer picture can emerge for many of these FX pairs.

EUR/USD: Price action is within a triangle on the 4hr chart so watch for any momentum-based breakout move. The 1.045 remains the lower support level to watch.

Watch out for an ECB Draghi speech on Tuesday and German Ifo Business Climate data on Wednesday.

EUR/JPY: Price action is within a wedge on the daily chart so watch for any momentum-based breakout move.

Watch out for an ECB Draghi speech on Tuesday and German Ifo Business Climate data on Wednesday.

AUD/USD: Price action is within a triangle on the 4hr chart so watch for any momentum-based breakout move. This consolidation pattern has formed up below a major 3 1/2 bear trend line so watch this for any make or break activity as well.

Watch out for AUD CPI on Wednesday and there is a holiday here on Thursday.

  • Any bullish breakout will have me looking up to the weekly chart’s 61.8% fib near 0.95.
  • Any bearish breakout will have me looking towards the 4hr chart’s 61.8% fib near 0.73.

AUD/JPY: I’m still keeping an eye on the 89 level here.

GBP/USD: The monthly candle has a way to go before it closes but the monthly chart currently has a bit of a ‘Double Bottom’ look to it with 1.20 forming the base. The weekly candle closed as a bullish engulfing candle too adding to this slightly bullish sentiment. I’m still watching for any sign of a trend change with the print of either a higher High or higher Low. Price action currently looks to be testing the upper trend line of a 4hr wedge so watch for any continued momentum-based breakout move.

There is the EU Membership Court Ruling on Tuesday and Prelim GDP data on Thursday to monitor here.

NZD/USD: Price action is within a triangle on the 4hr chart so watch for any momentum-based breakout move. This triangle has formed up under the key 0.73 level so watch this trend line as well.

Watch out for NZD CPI on Thursday.

  • Any bullish breakout will have me looking up to the weekly chart’s 61.8% fib near 0.785.
  • Any bearish breakout will have me looking towards the 4hr chart’s 61.8% fib near 0.70.

USD/JPY: Price action is within a descending channel on the 4hr / daily chart so watch for any momentum-based breakout move. I’m still watching for any test of the key 124 level as well.

GBP/JPY: Price action is within a triangle on the 4hr chart so watch for any uptick with bullish momentum. The 143 level is long-term S/R and that may be the better level to watch for any make of break move.

Watch out for the EU Membership Court Ruling on Tuesday and Prelim GDP data on Thursday.

USD/CAD: Price action remains within a triangle on the monthly chart and in a channel on the weekly / daily / 4hr charts so watch for any momentum-based breakout move.

USD/CNY : Price action is within a triangle on the 4hr chart so watch for any momentum-based breakout move. Also, watch for any move back to test the weekly support trend line.

USD/MXN: Price action is within a wedge on the 4hr chart so watch for any momentum-based breakout move. Keep an eye on the weekly chart’s support trend line here too.

USD/TRY: Price action looks to breaking down from a triangle on the 4hr chart so watch for any continued momentum-based breakout move.

GBP/AUD 4hr: Price action is within a triangle on the 4hr chart so watch for any momentum-based breakout move.

GBP/NZD 4hr: Price action is within a wedge on the 4hr chart so watch for any momentum-based breakout move.

EUR/AUD 4hr: Price action is within a large triangle on the 4hr chart so watch for any momentum-based breakout move.