Will FOMC impact mean reversion?

Last week: In last week’s update I had discussed the mean-reversion potential for a number of FX pairs and, whilst this looks to be evolving, I’m wondering if FOMC might disrupt, or even halt, the process? There were numerous trend line breakout trades and TC signals with all of this movement though and there are more patterns with trend lines to monitor in this FOMC week.

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FX: some mean reversion starting?

Last week: the lack of movement with the US$ to start the week kept some pairs choppy and or range-bound for a while but AUD movement triggered a few trend line breakout trades last week. Taking a look at the weekly charts of a number of FX pairs makes me think that we could be in for some mean-reversion and there are a few significant weekly chart-based triangle breakouts worth tracking. US$ weakness kicked in on Friday and, if this continues, we could be in for some trending markets in what is supposed to be the quieter Summer months!

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FX: Some mean reversion on the way?

Last week: The title of my update last week was ‘Will Draghi or Yellen speeches get the US$ moving?’ and that they did. Well, at least ECB Draghi and BoE Carney did! It was a great week for 4hr chart trend line breakout movement with the final weekly tally coming in at over 3,400 pips. These chart patterns were posted on this site well in advance of the breakouts and available for all to capture some of this movement. Next week marks the start of July and this often brings quieter or choppier Summer ranging market activity but, with the US$ seeming to be on some mean-reversion mission, I’m hoping we see more of the same!

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Will Draghi or Yellen speeches get the US$ moving?

Last week: It was another choppy week given continued indecision with the US$ index but there were still some decent trend line breakout trades, and TC trades for my Trial participants, to be had. There have been a few late additions to the economic calendar with some ECB Draghi speeches and a Fed Chair Yellen speech and I’m wondering if one or other of these might get the US$ going and thereby help currency movement?

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