Day 1 Jackson Hole: Euro wins.

Day 1 of the Jackson Hole Symposium finished with gains for the Euro index and a dip for the US$ index. Some key support levels need to be cleared on the US$ index but, despite this, the charts are looking rather bearish. There are two more days of Jackson Hole meetings to come though so this needs to be taken into consideration here as this current balance could well change at market open.

NB: it is a busy w/e for me and so tomorrow’s update will be brief and, possibly, delayed.

USDX: the index closed with a large bearish weekly candle, down from a daily chart Bear Flag and back down near 92.50 support, although, it did manage to close the week just above this psychological level.

USDX weekly: Looking at the weekly chart however reveals a bit of a classic-style breakout pattern below the major support of the weekly 200 EMA, a level that has been support since 2014. There was a break below this level, three weekly candles ago, then a pullback to test this broken support followed by a failure and now bearish follow-through on the recent candle. Traders need to watch to see if there is failure at 92.50 and any bearish continuation from this point on. If so, I’ll be watching the weekly chart’s 61.8% fib, down near 84.50, as a potential target.

Recall: the US$ longer-term uptrend remains intact until such time as it breaks and holds below the 61.8% fib of the 2014-2016 weekly swing high and this level is down near 84.50.

Also, keep note of the fact that the Fibonacci retracement on the recent swing low move, since the start of 2017, has the 61.8% fib level up near the previous S/R level of 100. Thus, I will be watching this 100 level if there is any recover move away from the weekly 200 EMA and up from the daily chart’s Flag.

Keep watch of the following levels in coming sessions:

  • the weekly 200 EMA.
  • the S/R level of 92.50: this is the level to watch in coming sessions for any new make or break.
  • the bottom trend line of the symmetrical wedge pattern.
  • the longer-term weekly swing high 50% Fibonacci level; down near 88.
  • the longer-term weekly swing high 61.8% Fibonacci level; down near 84.50.
  • the recent weekly swing low 61.8% Fibonacci level; up near 100 if there is any recovery move.

USDX daily: managed to close just above the 92.50 but, is this a Bear Flag that’s just getting going? Watch the 92.50 next week for any new make or break:

EURX: this index got the benefit of ECB President Draghi comments at Jackson Hole and closed higher for the week. The daily chart’s Bull Flag pattern was the one to play out here. Recall there was a bearish ‘Hanging Man’ weekly candle set up last week but that was not supported.

EURX weekly: This index has been in a long uptrend and a pause or pullback would not be out of order here, even if there is to be a longer-term recovery move. I note the 61.8% fib of this recent swing high move is down near previous S/R around 101.5 and the weekly 200 EMA and this would be in focus if there is any correction move to the downside:

EURX daily: It seems that the Bull Flag might be playing out here:

FX Index alignment: the FX Indices are back in alignment for LONG EUR$ and SHORT US$. However, caution is required here in case the situation changes over the following two days of Jackson Hole.

Calendar: NFP looks to be the high light of next week’s data: