Last week: Easter is symbolic with ‘New Life’ but I’m wondering where this might evolve within the trading construct. Perhaps with the US$ post US GDP? Time will tell. My TC 4hr trading has been choppy and better trading remains to be found off the shorter time frame charts during the US session.
- US$: The US$ remains range bound and under the key 100 level but I’ll be watching to see if it picks up strength following last Friday’s upbeat US GDP result. A review of the US$ index can be found through the following link. Watch this week for impact from Friday’s US NFP.
- Screen shots: Windows 10 update: I had delayed doing this update but now find my screen shot tool is not grabbing full screen shots. I will try to sort it out this week 🙁
- After Easter? This is a shortened trading week due to Easter and, also, it is the end of month and quarter and so trading conditions may be more volatile than what they’ve currently been.
- Range-bound price action: There is a lot of range-bound price action across stock and Forex charts making trend trading on the 4hr chart time frame quite difficult.
- This is only a brief update due to the Easter long w/e.
Stocks & Commodities: the S&P500, DJIA, NASDAQ, Russell 2000, German DAX, XJO (Australia) and TSX (Canada) all closed with bearish weekly candles but the FTSE closed with a bullish colured Doji. Many of these stock indices remains trading within consolidation patterns though and so I’m watching the relevant trend lines for any bullish or bearish breakout.
S&P500 weekly: still range bound here and closed with a bearish coloured ‘Inside’ candle:
Russell 2000 weekly: this is still within a Flag but closed with a bearish candle and below the 1,080 S/R level:
VIX weekly: this is down near 14 support but closed with an indecision style Doji candle, albeit bullish coloured.
Oil: this is holding above $33.55 support:
Oil monthly: still a few days until this candle closes BUT note how accurate the bullish reversal February pin bar candle was!
Oil daily: respecting the 61.8% fib and the 200 EMA on the daily for now:
Copper monthly: a few days to go but looking like a bullish bounce continues here for now:
Trading Calendar items to monitor: Sydney times quoted:
Gold: The monthly candle doesn’t close for a few more days but it is currently forming up as a bearish reversal ‘Shooting Star’. The weekly candle closed as large and bearish and this supports the pullback I have been expecting.
I’m looking for a pullback to test the daily and monthly chart’s 61.8% fib which is down near the key S/R region of $1,150/45 and this is also near the daily 200 EMA. A pull back down to this region at least would be the test of the previous bullish wedge breakout that I have been looking for 🙂 I do note that the daily Cloud kicks in near the $1,200 level so price may struggle if it gets down that far:
Any renewed US$ strength would keep pressure up on the metal as would a return to favour for yield bearing stocks. However, any growing Brexit / Eurozone collapse fear may help support Gold.
Price is below the 4hr Cloud but above the daily Cloud so I’m expecting choppiness here.
EUR/USD: this pair remains range-bound within a daily triangle but I’m on the lookout for any weakness coming from the US GDP result and recent Brexit-related press.
Price is in the 4hr Cloud and only just above the daily Cloud so I’m expecting choppiness.
The weekly candle closed as a bearish coloured ‘Inside’ candle reflecting some indecision here. The monthly candle remains fairly large and bullish with just a few days to go until it closes.
EUR/JPY: The 126 level remains a key level to watch here and price is back above this to start the week. Any continued bullish momentum would have me watching the triangle’s bear trend line for some resistance offerings.
Price is above the 4hr Cloud but below the daily Cloud so I’m expecting continued choppiness.
AUD/USD: I’m expecting some potential weakness with this pair this week given Friday’s upbeat US GDP data and the possible weakness with Gold.
Price action is holding above a 4hr support trend line for now and any pull back to test this support would be down near the 0.74 level. However, a 61.8% fib retracement of the recent swing high move would put price down near the 0.715 level so that could be a target as well.
Price is below the 4hr Cloud but above the daily Cloud and I note the top of the daily Cloud, whilst on a steep tangent, is around the 0.72 region so may offer some support.
The weekly candle was a bearish candle but the monthly candle is still large and bullish for now.
AUD/JPY: this pair continues to range sideways and is within a 4hr chart triangle set within separate weekly and monthly chart triangles.
I’m keeping an eye on price as it edges up towards the weekly chart’s bear triangle trend line and note that this is just below the key 89 S/R level.
Price is just above thin horizontal 4hr Cloud and above the daily Cloud.
The weekly candle closed as a bullish coloured Doji reflecting indecision.
Watch for any bullish US$ and stock sentiment as this could drag this pair along with them.
GBP/USD: I had been thinking that a bullish-reversal Inverse H&S might have been forming here on the daily chart. The w/e press about growing Brexit support might undermine this though.
Price is below the 4hr and daily Cloud which is bearish and the weekly candle closed as a large bearish candle.
I’m keeping an eye on the 1.40 S/R level.
USD/CAD: This pair has held above the 1.30 S/R level and could continue to bounce if the US$ picks up pace thereby helping to put pressure on Oil.
Price is above the 4hr Cloud but well below the daily Cloud so there is room to move here.
The 1.35 level looks like the next main S/R region to watch for any reaction given the weekly candle closed as a bullish engulfing candle.
NZD/USD: I’m keeping an eye on the wedge trend lines here for any bullish or bearish breakout:
USD/JPY: the monthly candle says it all here for now. It is currently forming a small indecision-style ‘Spinning Top’ candle following last month’s huge bearish candle. I still think the 111 level is the support level to watch.
Price is above the 4hr Cloud but below the daily so this pair might continue to be choppy.
Favour could pick up here though if the US$ picks up and, also, if stocks catch a bid.
The 4hr chart shows a channel between the 115 and 111 levels so I’ll be watching these for any make or break activity.
EUR/NZD: this pair is edging back up towards the major S/R level of 1.675. This may seem a rather ‘random’ number but check out the monthly chart to see how this level features.
The daily and 4hr charts show a triangle building up and price just below this key 1.675 level making this a key region to watch in coming sessions.
Price is above the 4hr Cloud but in the daily Cloud so it might remain choppy until such time as it can emerge from the daily Cloud.
GBP/NZD: this NZD-based pair is also shaping up with an interesting triangle pattern and trading near key S/R.
Watch for any trend line breakout where momentum is supported on the ADX.
Price is below the 4hr and daily Cloud and the weekly candle closed as bearish, albeit as an indecision style ‘Spinning Top’.
EUR/AUD: this pair has chopped sideways for the last 4 weeks and, as such, is now trading within a 4hr chart wedge. This is set within a larger triangle on the weekly chart though.
Price is also below the key S/R level of 1.55 and so there are lots of areas to watch on this pair.
Price is above the 4hr Cloud but below the daily Cloud so continued choppiness could be expected. Note how the daily Cloud currently ties in with the key S/R level of 1.55:
The weekly candle closed as another ‘Spinning Top’ candle like the previous two weekly candle before that.
EUR/GBP weekly: I’m still looking for this 500 pip H&S move to 0.80 to complete.