EUR/AUD: might be one to watch this week!

I received an e-mail on Sunday asking for my thoughts on the EUR/AUD. I haven’t been including analysis of many cross pairs over the last couple of weeks due to time constraints but the EUR/AUD might be one to add back to the watch list for this week. This is for you Jonah!

This is the e-mail I received and I can add that I, too, have observed a recent TC signal to LONG off the 4hr chart time frame. I don’t have any signal on the daily chart but do note another pattern forming up that may be of even greater interest.

Mary:

Hi! I hope you are well.

Thanks for sharing your great work.

I was wondering if you had a chance to look at EURAUD – I’ve got a 4H buy signal on it, and hopefully it will develop a Buy signal on the daily charts as well.

EUR/AUD monthly: I am on the record, for quite a long time, noting the importance of the 1.55 level. Price action remains in a triangle pattern and has recently been carving out a bounce off this bottom trend line:

eamonthly

EUR/AUD  weekly: price action is becoming squeezed into the apex of this triangle. Note the respect of a more recent bear trend line within this triangle though:

eaweekly

EUR/AUD  daily: the interesting technical feature setting up on the daily chart is a bullish-reversal ‘Inverted H&S’ pattern. The ‘neck line’ for this pattern is the 1.49 level and any break and hold above this might allow for a run back up to the key 1.55 level. This would be a move of 600 pips! Note also how placing fibs on this swing low move under the bear trend line would put a 61.8% pullback right near the 1.55 level. That is added confluence!

eadaily

eadaily

EUR/AUD  4hr: I haven’t been watching this pair as closely over recent session but do note there was a new TC LONG signal that triggered late last week. Price is right up at the 1.49 ‘neck line’ level so this may be the one to watch for any make or break in coming sessions. A break and hold above 1.49 might enable a run up to the 1.55 level:

ea4

Ichimoku Charts:

EUR/AUD 4hr: price is above the Cloud on the 4hr chart supporting the TC LONG signal off the 4hr chart time frame:

ea4hrcloud

EUR/AUD daily: price is IN the Cloud on the daily chart though suggesting choppiness:

eadailycloud

EUR/AUD  weekly: price is below the Cloud on the weekly chart:

eaweeklycloud

Summary: there is a new TC LONG signal on the EUR/AUD 4hr chart time frame but the more interesting feature is a bullish-reversal pattern setting up on the daily chart. There is an ‘Inverse H&S’ pattern with a neck line at 1.49 and any break and hold above this level could support a continuation move back to 1.55 which happens to be near the 61.8% fib of the recent swing low move. There are no certainties with trading but I look for high probability setups and a LONG trade on any close and hold above 1.49 on the EUR/AUD might be one I will consider.