FX Indices Review for 01/07/13

Saturday 29th Yosemite 

USDX:

Ichimoku: The USDX is trading above the Cloud on the 4hr but hasn’t managed to close above the Cloud on the daily. The top of the Cloud will provide some resistance to upwards price action. ‘How much resistance’ though is the question!


Standard charts: There is a bull support trend line in now on the 4hr chart given that price had a bullish week and is heading back up to test the 84 level again. Price closed the week out above the support of the monthly pivot. Note the pin bar reversal candle on the monthly chart though! This is a bearish signal for sure to close out the month!

EURX:

Ichimoku: Price is below the Cloud on the 4hr and in the top edge of the Cloud on the daily. This seems bearish but the daily Cloud, being quite broad, might offer some reasonable support:


Standard charts: there are some mixed signals on this index…some bullish, some bearish and some ‘indecision’! The key point is that price is now back below the 108.5 level and I see that as significant.

Bearish signals:

  • Reversal style pin bar from Friday’s daily candle.
  • Back below the 108.5. 
  • Back in the Cloud on the daily chart and below on the 4hr chart.

Bullish signals:

  • Still above the bull support trend line on weekly chart.
  • Still trading in an ‘ascending triangle’ on daily chart.

Indecision:

  • An ‘Inside’ style spinning top candle on the monthly chart.
  • Back trading in the trading band (pink zone)

Overall: I’m watching the USDX 4hr support trend line for any bearish breaks and, also, the 84 level for any bullish breaks. I believe the USDX is driving the entire market at the moment and, thus, is the instrument to watch for clues as to the next momentum move.

Monday will be the start of a new trading month and a new quarter so there might be some extra action. Be aware of new monthly pivots.