New month, new TLs, new opportunities!

Last week: Despite the US$ see-saw action there were still trend line breakout trades that delivered reasonable pips with 12 such trades last week giving over 1,330 pips worth of movement. There are many more set ups in focus for the coming week.

Breakout trades results:  these were noted in post updates on Tuesday and Friday but the final tallies are below:

  • Gold: 70 pips and later in the week with 55 pips.
  • EUR/USD: 140 pips.
  • GBP/USD: 100 pips.
  • USD/JPY: 50 pips and later in the week for 40 pips.
  • GBP/AUD: 150 pips.
  • GBP/NZD: 100 pips and later in the week with another 210 pips.
  • EUR/AUD: 120 pips.
  • USD/CNH: 200 pips.
  • EUR/NZD: 100 pips.

This week:

  • US$: The US$ has put in a bullish engulfing candle weekly candle and a review of the indices can be found through this link.
  • New month: Monday marks the start of a new month so watch for new monthly pivots.
  • GBP£: has held up rather well considering the developments with Brexit. which, of course, begs the question whether we seen the worst for the GBP? Whilst many GBP charts look out of balance and due some mean reversion, I will watch for momentum-based trend line breakouts for clues as to movement either way . The GBP/NZD is one that holds particular interest for me in coming sessions given the long-term bear trend line just ahead of current price.
  • XJO: The ASX-200 index has made a bullish trend line breakout above a 10-year bear trend line and so I’m watching for any continuation here. There is a nice consolidation pattern on the 4hr chart giving traders trend lines to watch for any breakout move:

ASX-200 monthly:

ASX-200 4hr:

  • Silver and Gold: both printed bearish coloured Doji monthly candles suggesting some pause or pullback could be in store.
  • AUD/NZD: has made a subtle but bullish breakout above a 6-year bear trend line so watch for any follow-through. The monthly chart shows how price action for this pair has been rather out of balance and some reversion to the mean would not be out of order. The 61.8% fib of this monthly swing low move is up near a previous S/R zone at 1.25 but other whole-number levels are obvious zones of S/R to which price might navigate. The question here being however that, if this breakout continues, will this be due more to AUD strength or NZD weakness or a subtle combination of both? If due to NZD weakness then this has implications for the GBP/NZD too. 

Calendar:

  • Mon 3rd: CNY Bank Holiday & Caixin Manufacturing PMI. AUD Retail Sales. GBP Manufacturing PMI. USD ISM Manufacturing PMI. PLus lots of EUR PMIs.
  • Tue 4th: CNY Bank Holiday. AUD Trade Balance, RBA Cash Rate & RBA Gov Lowe speaks. GBP Construction PMI.  CAD Trade Balance. NZD GDT Price Index.
  • Wed 5th: EUR lots of EUR PMIs. GBP Services PMI. USD ADP NFP, Crude Oil Inventories and FOMC meeting Minutes.
  • Thurs 6th: CNY Caixin Services PMI. USD Weekly Unemployment Claims.
  • Fri 7th: EUR Lots of second tier data. GBP Manufacturing Production. CAD Employment data. USD NFP.

Forex:

EUR/USD: I had mentioned I was looking for this to test the 61.8% fib and, although it took until Friday, the test has been achieved. I’m now watching to see if the daily chart’s triangle support trend line might be tested and I’ll be watching for any make or break from this region if so.

Price is below the 4hr Cloud but above the daily Cloud.

The weekly candle was a bearish engulfing but the monthly candle was a small bullish ‘Inside’ candle reflecting indecision.

There isn’t any high impact EUR data but there is a lot of second tier and PMI data to navigate this week as well as all of the US data including Friday’s NFP.

EUR/JPY: The 4hr chart wedge trend line gave way on Friday but the 15 min chart shows how this bearish day could have been better caught on the shorter time frame.

The daily chart shows a support trend line below current price so I’ll be watching this for any make or break activity.

Price is below the 4hr and daily Cloud.

The weekly candle was large and bearish and the monthly candle was bearish but small with a long upper shadow.

AUD/USD: I’m watching the 4hr chart’s triangle trend lines for any make or break activity.

Price is below the 4hr Cloud and in the top of the daily Cloud.

The weekly and monthly candles were both bearish coloured ‘Spinning Top’ candle reflecting indecision.

There is AUD Retail Sales on Monday to navigate and then AUD Trade Balance and the RBA rate update on Tuesday as well as all of the US data including Friday’s NFP.

AUD/JPY: I’m watching the daily chart’s support trend line for any make or break activity.

Price is below the 4hr and daily Cloud.

The weekly candle was a bullish coloured ‘Spinning Top’ reflecting indecision and the monthly candle was a small bearish candle.

NZD/USD: Price action remains under an 8-week bear trend line and near the key 0.70 level giving us areas to watch next week for any make or break activity.

Price is below the 4hr and daily Cloud.

The weekly candle was bearish and, essentially, engulfing and the monthly candle was bearish.

There is only NZD GDT price index data next week as well as all of the US data including Friday’s NFP.

GBP/USD: The Cable has held up and out from the daily chart’s triangle pattern which will surprise some given Brexit being triggered with the signing of Article 50. I’m not sure if all of the bad news has been priced in to recent price action but I’ll continue watching trend lines for clues about subsequent moves. Many of the GBP pair charts look out of balance and they may be due some mean reversion so I’m keeping an open mind.

I’ll also be watching for any continuation of the daily chart triangle breakout as this move could be worth up to 1,400 pips (according to technical breakout theory that is!). Note, also, the 4hr chart triangle giving us trend lines to watch next week for any new make or break activity.

Price is above the 4hr and daily Cloud.

The weekly candle was small and bullish and the monthly candle was small and bullish and also an ‘Inside’ candle reflecting indecision.

There is a fair bit of GBP data next week with Manufacturing PMI on Monday, Construction PMI on Tuesday, Services PMI on Wednesday and Manufacturing Production on Friday as well as ongoing Brexit matters and all of the US data including Friday’s NFP.

USD/JPY: The 4hr chart Bear Flag from last week faded and this leaves the daily/ weekly chart’s Bull Flag as still evident.

The 4hr chart shows price back consolidating but this time in a new triangle under the key 112 level giving us trend lines to watch for any new make or break activity.

Price is in the bottom of the 4hr Cloud but below the daily Cloud.

The weekly candle was a bullish coloured ‘Spinning Top’ whereas the monthly candle was a bearish coloured ‘Spinning Top’ with both reflecting indecision.

There is no high impact JPY data but watch for US data including Friday’s NFP.

GBP/JPY: This is another GBP pair that is rather interesting as it tests the upper wedge trend line of a lengthy consolidation pattern. However, there isn’t much 4hr momentum just yet but watch for any make or break from here next week. I’ve got trend lines in on the 15 min chart to watch here as well.

Price is above the 4hr Cloud but below the daily Cloud.

The weekly candle was a small bullish candle and the monthly candle was a bullish coloured Doji reflecting indecision.

USD/CAD: The Loonie continues within a wedge on the 4hr chart and note the fail to make a monthly chart triangle breakout. However, price action is becoming increasingly squeezed so this is worth keeping an eye on in case there is a breakout.

Price is below the 4hr Cloud but above the daily Cloud.

The weekly candle was bearish coloured ‘Spinning Top’ and the monthly candle was a bullish coloured Doji with both reflecting indecision.

GBP/AUD: The multi-month trend line remains broken here so I’m watching for some more mean-reversion potential to the upside and there are new 4hr chart trend lines in place to use as a guide for next week. Note also the daily chart triangle that has formed up giving us more trend lines as a guide.

Price is above the 4hr Cloud but in the daily Cloud.

The weekly candle closed a  bullish coloured ‘Spinning Top’ with the monthly being rather similar but also an ‘Inside’ candle; all reflecting indecision.

GBP/NZD: This pair holds particular interest for me as the monthly close above 1.77 is very significant and I’m on the lookout for any bullish follow-through.

The monthly chart shows how price seems to have carved out a potential ‘Triple Bottom off 1.67 and we’ve now just had a bullish candle close above long-term S/R of 1.77. There is a bear trend line just 300 pips ahead of current price that has been in place for almost 18 months; since Aug 2015 and any break of this would suggest some mean reversion could be on the way. However, like with the USD/MXN last week, I would not be surprised to see this major level of 1.77 tested again before any potential bullish continuation so I’m watching for movement either way and there are trend lines on the 4hr chart to help with this next week:

  • any bearish 4hr triangle break will have me looking for a test of 1.77 and, if that gives way, then for a test of the 4hr chart’s  50% and 61.8% fib levels.
  • any bullish breakout will have me looking for a test of the 18-month bear trend line.

Price is above the 4hr and daily Cloud.

The weekly candle closed a  bullish coloured ‘Spinning Top’ with the monthly being a bullish candle.

EUR/AUD: Watch the 4hr/daily/weekly chart’s support triangle trend line for any make or break here next week. However, the 4hr chart shows a 61.8% fib just below this trend line and this could step up with some support if tested.

Price is below the 4hr Cloud but in the bottom edge of the daily Cloud.

The weekly candle closed a large bearish, almost engulfing’ candle but the monthly closed as a bullish coloured ‘Inside’ candle reflecting indecision.

EUR/NZD: This gave a great breakdown trade last week but note how the 15 min on Friday would also have been very lucrative.

I’ve revised the trend lines on the 4hr chart as a guide for next week and will be watching the 50% and 61.8% fib levels here if the pullback continues.

Price is below the 4hr Cloud but above the daily Cloud.

The weekly candle closed a large bearish, almost ‘engulfing’, candle but the monthly closed as bullish, almost ‘engulfing’, candle. Go figure!

USD/MXN: I had mentioned last weekend to watch for any test of the key 19 level before any potential bearish follow through and that is exactly what we got! This is not Einstein stuff…major trend lines tend to be tested after being broken. It’s rather easy really.

The big question now is whether we will see any more bearish follow through given the US$ seemed to finds it mojo again last week. I’ve put trend lines on the 60 min chart to help guide into next week so watch for any new breakout.

Price is below the 4hr and daily Cloud.

The weekly candle closed as a small bearish candle with a long upper shadow and the monthly candle closed as a large bearish candle.

USD/CNH: The consolidation continues here within the larger triangle. This article is worth reading for those who trade this pair.

Price is in the bottom of the 4hr Cloud and in the daily Cloud.

The weekly candle closed as a bullish coloured Doji and the monthly as a small bullish candle with long upper shadow.

USD/TRY: This pair is within a triangle on the 4hr chart that is set within a larger one on the daily chart giving traders trend lines to watch for any make or break activity.

Price is in the 4hr Cloud but below the daily Cloud.

The weekly candle was a bullish coloured ‘Spinning Top’ that almost engulfed the previous weekly candle but the monthly closed as a bearish coloured Doji with all reflecting ‘indecision’.

Silver.

Silver has held up near the 6+ year bear trend line and I’m still waiting for any clear cut make or break from there. The monthly candle closed as a bearish-reversal candle and so, if the US$ keeps marching higher, then we could see some pullback with this precious metal. Any bearish retreat on the 4hr chart would have me looking for a test down near the 50% or 61.8% fib region.

Price is above the 4hr and daily Cloud.

The weekly candle closed as bullish but the monthly closed as a bearish Doji with some bearish-reversal ‘Hanging Man’ candle appearance.

Gold.

Gold is trading within a 4hr chart triangle and just under the key $1,250 level giving us areas to watch next week for any make or break activity. However, the monthly candle closed as a bearish coloured Doji that also had some bearish-reversal ‘Hanging Man’ look to it given that it formed just under a resistance zone. I note that the 4hr chart’s 61.8% fib is down near a daily support trend line so any bearish break would have me looking for a  test of that region.

Price is above the 4hr (just) and daily Cloud.

The weekly candle closed as a bullish coloured ‘Spinning Top’ but the monthly as a bearish coloured Doji; both reflecting indecision.

2 thoughts on “New month, new TLs, new opportunities!

  1. Dear Mary, many thanks for your work and the time you invest. I appreciate it very much.

    Greetings from Switzerland

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