Stocks:May13

Friday May 31st:

Some charts that have got my interest if we do head back to any ‘risk on’ trend. I’m away at the moment and will update with more charts over the w/e:

AAPL: this has now broken above the daily Ichimoku Cloud. It broke through a bear trend line a few weeks ago but has now also broken through this next level of resistance. It will be interesting to see if we get any follow through this time:

 

BBY: has now broken above the weekly 200 EMA. I need to see this hold above though:

AA: waiting for any clear triangle break:

AMAT: this has made bullish breaks and had paused for a bit. It looks ready to march again:

HL: keep an eye on this if Gold rallies and the USD keeps falling:

NG: ditto for this stock here too:

DBD: triangle break and looking bullish:



NTAP: might kick off soon..esp if Apple takes off:



OXY: might continue on if the USD keeps falling:

TDS: still watching for any triangle break:

Monday 27th May:

Many stocks seem to have paused just at the moment or are even pulling back a bit. I’m not jumping into any more bullish trades just yet until I see some more signs that the current uptrend is intact. In actual fact, a few stocks have shown up in my bearish scan: CCL, VMW and KMP.
CCL: Carnival CCL. This stock seems to be forming a possible bearish ‘Head and Shoulder’ pattern on the daily chart. I have a signal to SHORT BUT I’m waiting for a close below the Ichimoku Cloud and the H&S neckline and both of these seem to slot in at around the $32 level:

CCL weekly

CCL daily

CCL Ichimoku

VMW: VMWare Inc: This has given a bearish signal and is trading below the Ichimoku Cloud on the weekly and daily charts. I’m waiting for any close below support of $70:

 

 

 



KMP: This has given a daily bearish signal and looks like it could be forming a possible bearish H&S pattern. I am open to the idea that this could just be pausing before a bullish ascending triangle breakout though too! It is still trading above the weekly chart Ichimoku Cloud but is almost below the Cloud on the daily chart. I’m watching for any possible breakdown below the $84 level as I see this as a ‘neckline’ of sorts for the possible H&S pattern:

 

 

 

 

Wednesday 22nd May:

There are quite a number of stocks now that look like they’re setting up for a bullish breakout. The Fed news tonight might determine the outcome of these though so I’d be cautious until after that release. The stocks already posted in this thread are all still ticking along and some are getting very close to potential breakout. A few extra have caught my eye as well.
AA: I’m waiting for a close above the monthly 200 EMA and for a bit more clearance on the Ichi Cloud:

 

ACI:  getting closer

 

JOY: ditto

 

LULU: a clear breakout now

TDS: getting much closer: Nov $25 Calls @ $1.95

 

 

 
Some new candidates:
LDK: yep….a dog of a solar stock but it is giving off some bullish technical signals. I’m waiting for a close above $2.50:

 

 



APA: an oil stock. Has made a bullish triangle break. The Oct $85 Calls @ $5.10. Expensive!

 

 

DBD: a tech stock that has made a breakout. The Nov $35 Call @ $0.85c

 

 

 

Tuesday 21st may:

A few stocks are edging a bit closer to triangle breakouts. Usually, currencies have more action than stocks but it seems to be reversed at the moment!:
ACI: waiting for a triangle break and Cloud break. It seems to be getting much closer though:

 

BTU: ditto

 

NOK: ditto

 

Monday 20th May:

There are 2 stocks that interest me for June expiry CSNP:
CAKE: June $39 Put @ 0.35cents

FB: June $24 Put @ 0.23 cents

 

The following are stocks that might be near, or have just made, a triangle break out:
AA: watching for any triangle break:


ACIwatching for any triangle break:

 

BTU: watching for any triangle break:

 

CLFwatching for any triangle break:

 

CSCO daily : has made a clear triangle break now.

CSCO monthly


X: watching for any triangle break:

 

ZNGA: watching for any close above $4

 

OXY: has made a triangle break. Nov $95 Call @ $5.10. Expensive!
 
F daily:has made a triangle break now:

F monthly

 

GE daily : looking more bullish as it holds above the $22

GE monthly



NOK daily: watching for any triangle break:

NOK: monthly

 

NTAP: has made its triangle break now. Sept $40 Call @ $1.88

NTAP weekly

SPLS: watching for any triangle break:

SPLS weekly

ANF daily: has made a triangle break. Aug $55 Call @ $3.95. Expensive!

ANF monthly:

TDS dailywatching for any triangle break:

TDS monthly:



BZH daily: Nov $22 Call is @ $3.10

 

 

 

Saturday 18th May:

My stocks trading software is not opening today. Most of my Stock/Option trades are going along ok. I am long on three Gold/mining stocks that are down but I’ll hold them for now (AUY, HL, FCX).
  • Most of my trades are in profit and some are extremely profitable:

 

INTC:   Oct $23 Call now @ $1.82. Bought @ $0.93. An increase of 95%

 

MGM:  Sept $14 Call now @ $2.02. Bought @ $0.75. An increase of 170%
F:          Sept $14 Call now @ $1.47. Bought @ $0.86. An increase of 70%
XLF:     Jun $19 Call now @ $1.02. Bought @ $0.29. An increase of 250%
AVP:    Oct $25 Call now @ $1.25. Bought @ $1.00. An increase of 25%
KBE:    Jan $29 Call now @ $1.10. Bought @ $1.00. An increase of 10%
AMD:   Bought stock @ $3.55. Now trading @ $4.07. An increase of 15%
  • There has been just one negative Option trade so far. This has some time to recover though:
GE: Sept $24 Call now @ $0.48. Bought @ $0.83. A decrease of 42%
  • Other trades posted here over recent weeks BUT that I missed getting into:

 

SPLS:   Sept $14 Call now @ $1.30. Was @ $0.85. An increase of 53%
GES:    Sept $30 Call now @ $2.15. Was @ $1.35. An increase of 60%

Sunday 12th May: 

I’m still watching the following stocks. There are too many charts to post and many are posted already from earlier within this ‘May’ thread:
  • Bullish on: AVP, F, INTC, MSFT, AMD, MU and MGM.
  • Waiting to see if these stocks can close up out of their Clouds: BTU, CLF, CAT, NUE, CSCO, AAPL, ACI, and JOY.
  • New to watch list this week:

ZNGA: has been brought to my attention. I’m waiting for close above $4 and /or the Cloud though:

 

 

BBY: looking for a weekly close above the $30 or 200 EMA:



NOK: This was also brought to my attention. I’m waiting for a bullish triangle break though:

 

 

  • Stocks that have made new highs or breakouts:

NTAP: The September $37 Call is @ $2.41:

 



CAKE: has closed above a new high of $40:

LULU: weekly trend line break

GPS: this was @ $38.81 last week when I posted this. It is now @ $40.99. Up $2.18 or 5.6% for the week:

GES: The Sept $30 Call has increased form $1.35 to $1.80. Up 45 cents or 33%

 

Thursday 9th May:

NUE: this has popped its head back above the Cloud now. I’ll be looking to see if this holds and, if so, to buy Calls. The Oct $47 Call is @ $1.92


YUM: this has popped back above the Cloud too:



AA:this has now closed out and up from the triangle and above the 200 EMA. It has also just closed above the Cloud…sort of! Oct $9 @ $0.51

 

AMD: I am up almost 8% in two days on this trade. Bought in @ $3.55. Now @ $3.83. Increase is 0.28 cents or 7.8%:

 

 

Tuesday 7th May: 

AAPL update: this would have to be the best trade of the last US session.

 
Apple stock: rose from $449.98 to $461.50. An increase of $11.52 or 2.5%
Apple Call Option: The October $450 Call was up from $29.10 to $34.65.An increase of $5.55. This is an increase of 19% though; for just one session. The power of Options!Apple still needs to escape the Cloud. Success in doing so might see the beginning of a new rally here.

NUE: I am watching this stock closely as it is a favourite of mine. The conventional chart shows NUE to be back up trading within the bullish ascending triangle:

The Ichimoku chart though shows price butting up against the Cloud. This resistance layer isn’t too thick here so price might rally up through it. I am waiting until such time though before trading this further.

 

Monday 6th MayAAPL: @$449.98

I noted last week that Apple had not given any bullish signals just yet. Eamonn Sheridan posted an article on FX Live though that got me looking at this again. I see now that there have been three new bullish signals here in the last couple of days:
1. A close above the weekly descending trend line:

 

 

2. A signal, albeit a weak one at the moment, of a bullish Tenkan/Kijun cross below the Ichimoku Cloud. Price has now entered the Cloud. A close above the Cloud would be considered as possibly quite bullish.
3. TS signal: I have a very new TS signal to LONG this stock on my daily charts.

Plan: to watch and see if AAPL can close above the Ichimoku Cloud for potential LONG trades. The Oct $450 Call is expensive though @ $29.10.

Sunday 5th May:

There are quite a few stocks that are presenting with bullish charts. I haven’t the time to post all that I’m watching but these are some of them. I also posted some other charts mid week in Stocks:Triangles page. So, check these out too.
AVP: this has now had a monthly close above a triangle trend line. The Oct $25 Call is at $1.15.

 

INTC: I’m waiting for a weekly close above the $24 level. This is a major S/R level for INTC. The Oct $24 Call is @ $1.27. I have the Oct $23 Call.

 

MSFT: I am LONG this. It is looking rather bullish:

 

 

 

NUE: I’m still waiting to see if this can close back above the Cloud before taking further trades on this:

 

 

 

 

GPS: May $37 Put is @ $0.31

 

MGM: I’m LONG this with the Sept $14 Call and it is starting to look bullish again:

 

 

WAG: The monthly chart looks bullish. Knocking at previous high of $50. I’m wondering if $50 is going to be a new ‘floor’ for this stock:
Some more speculative stocks for Call/Stock trades:
AA: I’m just waiting for any close above the Cloud.

 

 

ACI: watching this for any trend line break to then buy:

 

AMD: I’m going to buy the stock as it’s cheap!

 

 

BTU: I’m watching for any ‘buy’ signal here:

 

 
F: I’m waiting for any triangle break to buy Calls or the stock:

 

 

Monday 29th April.

May is just around the corner and this month comes along with the mantra of ‘Sell in May and go away’. The S&P500 daily chart is warning of a possible pause, or even pull back, so I am being cautious over the next week or two with my stock and option trades as I wait to see if there are any further signals suggesting a pullback.There was a bearish Tenkan/Kijun cross on the S&P500 daily chart a few days ago:

The only two other such crosses in the last 12 months resulted in pull backs for general risk appetite.

I thought I would look at  a few stocks that are of interest to me and cast my eye over their Ichimoku charts as well. This proved to be rather enlightening! A kind of ‘serendipity’ you might say!AAPL: I have had Apple trading in a bearish ascending broadening wedge for some time now:

My charts revealed a BUY signal when price finally broke through the $400 back in December 2011. The charts also gave a SELL signal in October 2012 and this came with a daily support trend line break:

The Ichimoku chart for Apple tracks very closely to my own charting. December 2011 shows a bullish Tenkan/Kijun cross and October 2012 shows a bearish cross:

The point I note here too is that there are no bullish signals yet and price is still trading below the Cloud so, I wouldn’t be jumping in LONG here just yet. I’d rather wait for confirmation!

CAT: CAT has broken down from a weekly triangle pattern but is being held up by $80 support:

 

A bearish signal came through on the Ichimoku chart as CAT bounced off the triangle trend line. CAT is now trading below the Cloud and without giving any new bullish reversal signal just yet. Thus, I’d be very wary trading Puts here unless you are happy to be assigned shares as it may still have further to fall. The stock might bounce back from here but I’d want to see clear signs of this first:

MCD: This stock made a bullish triangle breakout in January:

I note that there was a bullish Tenkan/Kijun cross on MCD just prior to this breakout:

EBAY: I have been selling Puts on EBAY for some months now as this stocks trades within a trading channel. I had been happily selling Puts at levels below the trend channel:

I note on the Ichimoku chart for EBAY though that there has been a couple of bearish Tenkan/Kijun crosses lately and price is trading below the daily Cloud. I definitely won’t be selling Puts on EBAY under these circumstances:



CPB: I noted a triangle break and a buy signal back in Aug 2012 with CPB:

The Ichimoku chart reveals a bullish Tenkan/Kijun cross just prior to August :


TGT: I noted a bullish triangle break for Target back in late February:

I now can see that there was a bullish Tenkan/Kijun cross for Target a little earlier than that though, back in January:

YUM: this stock has been trading in an ascending triangle for some time now. Put selling under the trend line may have seemed safe:

I now note that YUM has given a bearish Tenkan/Kijun cross AND is trading in the Cloud. I’d be wary selling Puts here unless you want to own the stock:

PEP: I noted a bullish triangle break for Pepsi back in mid February:

I also now note that Pepsi gave a bullish Tenkan/Kijun cross just prior to that, in mid January:

 

MSFT: I am long this stock and watching as it attempts to break through the $32 level which is a strong S/R level. This can be best seen on the monthly chart:

 

 

I note that the Ichimoku charts showed a bullish Tenkan/Kijun cross back in late January and price has rallied since then. Price is also still trading above its daily Cloud.
The $32 level may prove to be too much resistance, especially if there is a wider negative shift in ‘risk’ appetite. I own MSFT from $28 so will be locking in some profit with stops.
INTC: This stock gave a bullish triangle break back in mid April:

 

 

I note that INTC gave its latest bullish Tenkan/Kijun cross back in March so this sort of dove tails in with what I am seeing here:
AVP: I have been watching and trading AVP as it trades within a triangle pattern:

 

 

I note that AVP gave a bullish Tenkan/Kijun cross in January at about the time that I got my signal. price is still trading above the Cloud.
NUE: I was assigned this stock recently after a bout of put selling. The triangle break and bearish signal has bothered me though.

 

The Ichimoku chart shows how NUE had traded above the Cloud since about last October. Price is now below the Cloud and there has been a bearish Tenkan/Kijun cross here as well:
The weekly chart of NUE shows how this has been trading in a range between $30 and $50 since 2009.
This may well be heading back to test the bottom edge of this range again. Thus, I’m glad I sold my assigned shares and I will look for opportunities to enter back into this stock, with bullish strategies, once signals to that effect return. I do not want to be holding stock or selling Puts on stocks that are trading below the daily Ichimoku Cloud.
ABX: This stock has been hit hard by the pull back with Gold. There have been other issues for ABX as well though. I had a sell signal last November that I wish now I had used to buy Puts on ABX back when it was trading around $37.

 

It is interesting to note that a bearish Tenkan/Kijun cross occurred in October and that ABX moved below its Cloud in November. This augers well with my earlier observations.
ABX is still trading below the Cloud and there hasn’t been a bullish Tenkan/Kijun cross I won’t be looking to jump in LONG here just yet. I’m on the lookout for any bullish reversal though!
DELL: I received a signal to LONG DELL back in December last year. I bought Calls on DELL that are doing well!
I now note that the Ichimoku charts gave a bullish Tenkan/Kijun cross back then too. I also note that a bearish Tenkan/Kijun cross has just evolved as well. I will lock in some profit on the trade.
MU: I noted a bullish triangle break and buy signal on this rather volatile stock late last December:

 

I now note that the Ichimoku chart gave a bullish Tenkan/Kijun back then as well and that price has traded above the Cloud since then and without any other bearish signals yet:

 

ADBE: I spotted a bullish triangle break on this stock last December. Sadly, I only traded this via Naked Puts but now wished I’d bought Calls!

 

I also now note how the Ichimoku chart gave a bullish Tenkan/Kijun cross back then and how price has traded above the Cloud since then and without any new bearish signal as yet:
JNJ: I spotted a bullish triangle break with JNJ last July. There was also one of my own TS signals on JNJ back in January this year:

 

I am interested to see that bullish Tenkan/Kijun crosses occurred at both those time as well:
I have many more stocks I could analyse but it is my son’s b’day today so time is limited. I will add to this though as the month goes on.