FX themes: FOMC and mean reversion.

Last week: There were some big moves with GBP pairs last week and this has helped to develop the mean reversion profile across some FX charts; a phenomenon I have been monitoring for many weeks now. This movement helped to trigger a number of great trend line breakout trades and decent TC signals as well. There is FOMC in the coming week and so I’ll be watching to see how this impacts the mean reversion trends in play and, also, to see if it triggers any new trend line breakout trades.

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US$ still pegged but GBP flies.

I cast my eye first over the economic calendar this morning, noting the upbeat US CPI and weekly jobs data, and thought this would have lifted the US$ over the 92.50 but was surprised to see this was not the case. 92.50 is proving to be very effective resistance for the US$ index and remains the level to watch with Friday’s US Retail Sales. The GBP has taken off following the BoE hint of a rate hike and this triggered a number of new trend line breakout moves.

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FX: Data lifts US$ & helps TC.

Whilst US PPI data didn’t reach expectation the fact it was higher than the last count helped to lift the US$. The US$ index has yet to reclaim the 92.50 resistance level though so, as suggested before, watch this level for any new make or break. However, the nimble nature of the short term TC trading system though meant that some FX reversal moves were harnessed for decent Risk/Reward trade gains.

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