Wednesday 28th Aug
Rising tension in the Middle East with Syria has derailed much of the building ‘risk’ appetite. Fundamental events like these always have the potential to undermine technical analysis. I’m taking a look at the S&P500 though to see how this is trading within the construct of my previous technical framework.
S&P500 daily: I have already had one bearish signal on this chart; a TS signal to short last week. The index is still holding above the daily trend line for the time being though. Stocks have taken a hit over rising tensions in Syria but they could bounce back just as easily if any non military solution ends up being brokered to address these Syrian concerns.
S&P500 Ichimoku Chart: There has also been one bearish signal on this chart; a bearish Tenkan/Kijun cross although it was deemed a ‘weak’ signal as it crossed above the Cloud. A break below the daily trend line (above chart) and the Ichimoku Cloud would be another bearish signal.
S&P500 weekly: this chart shows that price is still in an uptrend for the time being. Note the divergence evident now that wasn’t evident with the last two pullbacks. This might just point to a looming and more serious correction though:
S&P500 monthly chart: The August candle hasn’t closed yet but the index is still trading above three key areas:
- the psychological level of 1,600.
- the previous 2000 and 2007 highs of 1577.
- the weekly support trend line.
I have been talking about these three key levels for many weeks now in my weekend updates and they are still critical areas to watch out for.
I still believe that these three levels could all be tested, even as part of any normal and continued bullish momentum. Syria is certainly adding an extra mix to this pullback though and it remains to be seen how much impact this will have on risk appetite.
S&P500 30 min: the shorter time frame chart shows how this news is more easily traded during the higher volume European and US sessions. No surprises there:
I’m watching any pullback for potential buying opportunities.Oil: I’ve been looking at the US Oil ETF:USO. It is trading under the weekly 200 EMA and, also, just below a bit of a psychological S/R level in the $40 mark. A weekly close above this level would be quite bullish. The Jan 2014 $40 Call is currently @ $1.79.
VIX: the ‘fear’ index is looking to forming a ‘bullish engulfing’ weekly candle close as it stands at the moment. This is no guarantee of bullish follow through but, still, worth being aware of! The bear trend line is still holding price at the moment though:
Sunday 25th Aug
I haven’t been updating here much of late as I’ve had a month of sickness. First, with my mother, and then the last 10 days we have had our son in hospital. So, stock analysis has slipped a bit during that period. I’m planning on getting back to speed over the coming weeks…fingers crossed but we’ve had a steady stream of ‘well-wishers’ through our doors this w/e.
The first cab off the rank is BHP. I’ve adjusted trend lines here but a possible bullish ‘inverse Head and Shoulder’ pattern seems to be setting up. The neck line is sloping the wrong way here though. Note, also, that price is trading above the daily Ichimoku Cloud:
Saturday 7th Aug:
A few stocks are looking bullish as they push to be near new highs. They could well turn here but I’ll be watching for any breakouts!
This stock is starting to look quite bullish! Watch the $50 level:
YUM: a bullish ascending triangle?
ACI: Arch Coal: bouncing off support! Looking for a close above the Ichimoku Cloud:
BTU: Peabody Energy: bouncing off support! Looking for a close above the Ichimoku Cloud:
CLF: Cliffs Natural Resources: a bullish breakout:
MGM: has had a close above the key S/R level of $17 now:
X: US Steel: A bullish trend line break:
Tuesday 6th Aug:
Some more stocks have gained my attention and I’ll share them here. They are ones that have been on my watch list but have now made a bit of a move that has caught my eye:
CLF: Cliffs Natural Resources: respect of support, a trend line break and a new TS signal. Now, that is some confluence!
looking bullish now too. Watch for any break and hold above the $75 level:
NOK: Nokia: I posted this triangle break some time ago but it finally seems like it might be getting going!
AA: Alcoa: I had this in a triangle but it now seems to me to be forming up into more of a bullish descending wedge! I’m keeping a close eye on the Ichimoku chart here:
AAPL: looking more and more bullish by the day:
MU: Micron Technology: looks like it might be gearing up for another bullish move.
BAC: Bank of America: I’m still watching for any break over the $15 level:
Monday 5th Aug:
AAPL: I posted the Ichimoku chart over the w/e but the standard chart is looking encouraging as well:
BAC: this is nudging up against a key S/R level in the $15 mark. I’m watching for any break and hold above this level:
Sunday 4th Aug:
I am away for the w/e and plan to review stocks in more detail on Monday. AAPL is looking quite bullish though for now:
Sunday 28th July:
These stocks are still looking good:
NUE: has now broken the trend line:
SWY: looking bullish. Waiting to see any breakout:
NG: trend line break holding and Ichimoku break looming:
These stocks weren’t posted below but have appeared regularly in my previous monthly updates. They’ve caught my eye again now though:
YUM: a bullish break might be looming. Price has closed above the Cloud again.
CLF: might have formed a base:
HL: trend line break forming and ADX looking bullish
CAKE: is testing its breakout level:
Saturday July 25th
I’ll look over these stocks in more detail over the w/e BUT I just wanted to note AAPL. It is holding up and out from the Ichimoku Cloud:
Wednesday July 24th
The following stocks are also developing interesting chart patterns. I’m watching them for Call buying opportunities:
watching for a new triangle break. Ichimoku looks bullish.
NUE: watching for a possible bullish ‘inverse head and shoulder’ break. Ichimoku looks bullish too.
WAG : a weekly close above $51 would be quite bullish and may eveolve to be a new ‘floor’.
WMT: looking for reaction at $80
SWY : a new triangle break looming and there has been a bullish move above the Ichimoku Cloud:
CAT : in a new triangle?
BAC: watching the $15 level:
MGM: the $17 level is worth watching here:
MCD: not Call buying here but watching for any deeper pullback. Ichimoku looks bearish too just now.
Monday July 22nd
July is well and truly underway but I’m only just settling back down after being away for 3 weeks. Also, stock markets have been pulling back a little so I was waiting to see how deep the correction might be. There are some signs now that this correction period might be over so I’m back looking for trading opportunities around any possible recovery.
GOLD/SILVER: Gold and Silver are currently trying to put in a bit of a recovery and this has had me back looking at Gold and Silver stocks/ETFs. I’m on the lookout for any bullish trend line breaks and moves back above Ichimoku Clouds. The Gold/Silver stocks/ETFs on my radar are charted below. I’ll be looking to see if any of these offer trading opportunities for Call buying but some are so cheap that I’d probably just buy them outright. Some of them have made short term trend line breaks but none of them have closed above their Ichimoku Cloud just yet. I’ll be watching them over coming days/weeks to see whether they can achieve this. I would like to see a weekly close on Gold above the $1,300 level before getting too excited.I have published the daily and Ichimoku chart for each stock/ETF:
ABX: Barrick Gold
AUY: Yamana Gold. A favourite of mine:
CDE: Coeur Mining
EGO: Eldorado Gold
GDX : Gold miners ETF
GDXJ: Junior Gold miners ETF
HL : Hecla Mining
IAG : IAMGOLD
RGLD : Royal Gold
SLV : Silver ETF
SLW : Silver Wheaton