Mon 28th Oct: Gold Stocks
Yamana Gold AUY: Trading in a triangle on the daily chart so you need to watch trend lines. There is a bit of a bearish H&S look to the weekly chart though. I’m watching for trend line breaks here. Also, AUY is still below the Ichimoku Cloud::
Goldcorp GG: still trading within a triangle so trend line breaks needed. Also, this is still below the Ichimoku Cloud:
Hecla Mining: HL: This is starting to look a bit bullish. Again, watch for trend line breaks and the daily Cloud:
IAMGOLD: IAG: Much like HL, looking bullish:
Sun 27th Oct: Part A: ABX
I am long a few Gold stocks and had ABX ‘put’ to me this month after selling the Oct $19 Put. I’ve traded this stock quite a bit over the last few years and it is starting to look bullish again after putting in lows of $15 just recently. The success of ABX is linked to that of Gold and I’ll be watching both of these this week, especially after FOMC. Any continued USD weakness could help to boost both Gold and Gold stocks.
I want to ‘walk’ through the charts before explaining how I plan to approach this stock.
ABX monthly chart: price has bounced off major $15 support but is still trading under a bear triangle trend line.
ABX weekly chart: there is a bit of a bullish ‘inverse H&S’ look to the weekly chart.
ABX daily chart: I’m watching this after FOMC to see whether there might be any bullish continuation on this inverse H&S pattern. I’ll be watching for any close above the ‘neck line’ region. Then, I’ll be watching the $25 S/R level and, then, the triangle trend line. I have received a ‘buy’ signal with my TS system:
ABX Ichimoku chart: ABX is back above the Ichimoku Cloud after a few attempts and is looking more bullish here:
Current ABX trade: I have sold the $20 Nov Put. This is now ITM and could possible extend further but I don’t care. I’d still make a profit on the trade in this case and, if so, will look for other opportunities to trade this.
Future trades IF bullish momentum continues and IF prices closes and holds above neck line:
- I will look to buy Jan 2014 $21 Calls. These are currently @ $1.15.
- I will continue to sell puts one month out and just under current price.
Sun 27th Oct: Part B
The following stocks are looking bullish:
has made a bullish descending wedge break:
FCX: ditto here:
PFE: triangle break. A monthly candle close above $30 would be significant:
AVP: triangle break possibly looming:
BHP: ditto here
CAT: holding above support:
DIS: a bullish inverse H&S break:
MSFT: looking bullish
NUE: bullish weekly close above $50:
YUM: has closed again below the weekly trend line BUT last weeks candle is a bullish reversal style ‘pin bar’ candle:
X: still bullish after the triangle break:
ZNGA: a close above $4 would be bullish:
Sun 20th Oct:
I’m looking at the following and trading a few of these this week:
CAT: has broken a triangle trend line now but has earnings on Oct 23rd.
The Feb $87.50 Call is @ $3.88 though atm.
INTC: Nov $23 Put is @ 0.19 cents:
MSFT: has earnings on Oct 24th but the Nov $33 Put is @ 0.28 cents:
DIS: watching the $68:
JNJ: the bearish H&S seems to have been avoided. Trend line breaks helped here!
KO: watching the trend lines here:
NUE: has made another bullish close above the $50.
Nov $49 Put is @ 0.48 cents.
April $50 Call is @ $3.45:
PEP: As for JNJ, the bearish H&S seems to have been avoided. Trend line breaks helped here!
WAG: I was tracking this bullish ‘inverse H&S’ break during the lead up. The break has now given a 15% gain!
: I’m long Calls here:
HD: watching trend lines here:
PFE: now this is an interesting one. I don’t trade Pharmaceuticals usually but this looks tempting. It has made a triangle break on the daily chart and has previous history at higher levels. Earnings on Oct 29th though so I might wait a bit!
X: I was tracking this triangle break and I’m long Calls here. Lots of room to move:
YUM: this has now closed the week out below the weekly support trend line. I’d be watching the $63 level though as a close below this would be a rather bearish development. Again, daily chart ‘flag’ trend lines might help to evaluate overall sentiment here:
Wed 16th Oct
YUM:this is still trading below a major weekly support trend line and the daily Ichimoku Cloud.Note on the weekly chart how price has tested the 23.6% fib level a few times. A break of this level would be quite bearish. Respect would suggest strength though:
Tuesday 15th October
I’ve been tracking this ETF for a while and it made a triangle break some time ago that yielded a 20% return. It has now broken above another key level of $20 and, also, above the Ichimoku Cloud.
- The March $21 Calls can be bought for @ 0.63 cents.
- The Nov $20 Puts can be sold @ 0.27 cents.
Monday 14th October:
The US Government shutdown issue is yet to be resolved which continues to keep markets in a state of flux. A resolution could tip markets to ‘risk on’ but a default could quickly tilt towards ‘risk off’. I’m watching the following stocks as they continue to challenge trend lines:
CAT: watching for any triangle break:
DIS: watching for a possible inverse H&S:
EBAY: watching the wedge:
INTC: looking a bit bullish:
JNJ: my trend lines were a bit off here and this break now seems bullish:
KO: still in a bullish falling wedge BUT still blow major support!
MCD: in a channel:
MSFT: looks quite bullish at the moment with a smaller triangle break:
NUE: still watching the $50 level:
YUM: not looking too healthy just at the moment. I’m watching to see if the weekly support trend line remains broken:
AA: watching for any bullish descending wedge break here:
BAC: watching for any close above $15:
HD: watching trend lines here for clues:
GPS: not only has the H&S neck line broken but weekly support has now too:
Thursday 10th October:
JNJ: H&S neck line looks to have been broken:
KO: still trading within the flag pattern but below the Cloud:
PEP: As for KO, below the Cloud but still within the flag:
GPS: has broken the neckline BUT, as I said before, I’d want to see the daily support trend line broken too:
HD: Much like KO and PEP. Below the Cloud but in the triangle:
Sunday 6th October
KO: Coca Cola : Bull Flag or something more serious?
I was interested to read an article this weekend about KO and other soft drink makers and the article can be found here
. The author discussed the fundamental challenges soft drink companies face in an environment of increasing sensitivity to obesity and its related causes. I have been noting technical details for some time now with KO, and even PEP (Pepsi), and how they have been trading with a little less strength. KO has recently bounced off its highs and, in doing so, has broken below a major weekly support trend line that dates back to March 2009. It is now also trading back below the support of the Ichimoku Cloud on the daily chart but, more importantly, has dropped below the Cloud on the weekly chart too. This is the first drop below the weekly Cloud since late 2009.
KO monthly: my charts are adjusted for stock splits:
KO daily Ichimoku: trading below the Cloud:
KO weekly Ichimoku: trading below the Cloud:
Another look at the weekly chart of KO with Fibonacci levels shows that a 50% retracement from the last swing high brings price to around $31 and a 61.8% to about $28.
I do accept and understand the author’s stated appeal of a wide moat company like Coca-Cola but I also see the technicals pointing to some possible short term pain whilst it tries to adjust in the current market environment.
This latest pullback might be nothing more than a ‘Bull Flag’ forming up below the resistance of the major recent high though. I have drawn trend lines in on the daily chart to show boundaries for this ‘flag’ action. Trend line breaks here might help to confirm whether this pullback is merely a ‘Bull Flag’ in the making or, whether, a more serious correction is in store for KO:
PEP: Pepsi: A Bearish ‘Head and Shoulder’ forming or a ‘Bull Flag?
The chart for Pepsi has looked like it could be forming up into a bearish ‘H&S’ for a few weeks now. Price is trading below the Ichimoku Cloud on the daily but above on the weekly chart so it is not quite as gloomy as for Coca-Cola. I have also drawn in ‘flag’ trend lines here so trend line breaks might help to determine the next directional move for Pepsi:
PEP daily Ichimoku:
PEP weekly Ichimoku:
Whilst KO and PEP have some bearish tendencies, Disney is looking rather bullish as it sets up with a possible bullish ‘Inverse Head and Shoulder’ pattern still. A break above the ‘neck line’ in the $68 region would seem quite bullish:
EBAY also looks to be rather bullish as it chops along in a ‘Bull Flag’ like pattern under key $60 resistance. It is trading above the daily Ichimoku Cloud:
JNJ: Johnson & Johnson
Like Pepsi, JNJ is trading in what looks like a possible bearish H&S pattern. Trend line breaks might give better clues here though to the next major move as well. JNJ is also trading below the daily Cloud:
MCD is chopping downwards in a trading channel and is also below the Ichimoku Cloud:
MSFT is looking like its biding its time and building up for a breakout attempt above the $37 level. It is now back above the daily Ichimoku Cloud too:
This might be back below the $50 level BUT it is still above the support of the Ichimoku Cloud:
YUM: YUM Brands
I’m watching the $75 level and for any break clear of the Ichimoku Cloud:
I’m still thinking we might see a bullish breakout here:
BAC: Bank of America
I’m still watching for any further breakout above the $15 level:
FCX: Freeport McMoran
FCX is a rather volatile stock but it has made a possible bullish break from a descending wedge AND it is back trading above the Ichimoku Cloud:
This is another stock setting up with a bearish looking ‘H&S’ pattern. Price had previously made a bullish break up and out from a triangle pattern and may just be reverting back to the mean of the daily support trend line. It is trading below the Ichimoku Cloud which is bearish though. Watch the trend lines and $38 area:
HD: Home Dept
HD is another stock that looks like its paused and waiting to decide where to move to next. It could be forming up as a bearish ‘Triple Top’ or it might be forming a ‘Bull Flag’. Again, trend line breaks might offer the best guidance here. It is struggling with the Ichimoku Cloud too so watch that as well for clues:
KBE: Bank ETF
I still am long Call options here:
MGM: MGM Resorts Intl
I’m long Calls here too:
MU: Micron Technology
I’m long this stock from $6!
X: US Steel
I’ve got Calls here too and I’m still thinking this looks bullish…. at the moment that is!
This stock and I are not friends. I had been charting and stalking this stock…and blogging here about it too, prior to the $20 triangle breakout some months ago now. Yet…I missed it and the stock went on for a 75% gain! It is approaching another S.R level now at the $40 mark and a break and close above this would be another rather bullish signal too. I won’t miss it this time if it evolves!