Tue 1st Oct:
Monthly Candles on Indices:
SPX: S&P500: the ‘Dark Cloud Cover’ pattern was avoided with the bullish candle close. Price is still above the daily trend line:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: a bullish close but the long upper shadow suggests that the Bulls lost the battle somewhat although a close above the key 14,200 is bullish:
XJO: ASX 200: this index has made a significant monthly candle close above 5,200. This is the first bullish monthly candle close above 5,200 since May 2008!!
Nikkei: price closed just a fraction below the monthly bear trend line but with a bullish engulfing candle:
India’s Sensex: a bullish coloured inside candle and still within a bullish ascending triangle:
Canada’s TSX: a bullish candle within a triangle but closed below the key 12,800:
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng: a bullish candle within a triangle but closed below the key 24,000:
London’s FTSE: a small bullish candle with a long upper shadow suggesting that the bulls lost control through the latter part of the month:
Mon 30th Sept:
Today is marked by a bit of ‘risk off’ to open the Asian session as US Congress struggles to solve their budget and with news of Italian political instability. I’ve had a look through some stocks and a have noted any ones that seem to be setting up with interesting chart patterns:
GPS: GAP clothing: this recently gave a nice triangle breakout trade that yielded 18% gain on the stock but it is looking a little bearish at the moment. A possible bearish ‘Head and Shoulder’ pattern looks to be setting up with the neck line at about the $40 level. The previous trend line break at $38 is just below this and may offer some support if price does indeed pull back. I’d be thinking that any close below the $38 would be a bearish signal. Price has also now closed below the Ichimoku Cloud. Price broke back down through the Cloud a few weeks ago and has tested the Cloud since then without success:
HD: Home Depot: still watching this one for a possible triple top or it may just be a pause and a bull flag forming. trend line breaks help here:
YHOO: Yahoo. This is a stock you will be aware that I’ve been tracking for some time and should recall I noted the triangle breakout back in Feb this year. The stock has increased 65% since I noted that breakout! I continue to watch it here and see that a break and close above the $40 level would be another milestone of achievement and might offer another entry point:
JNJ: Johnson & Johnson: I’m continuing to watch this one too. Like with HD, I’m wondering if this is a bearish H&S forming or just a pause before another bullish move. The Cloud and trend line breaks will help here too:
PEP: Pepsi: much the same here as for JNJ and HD:
Thurs 26th Sept:
I often look at the Aussie market and S&P500 stock indices but I have spent a bit of time this morning checking over some other markets. In my early morning write up today I described a family saying of ‘watching for Sue’. Well, it seems that a number of markets might be doing much the same thing! The monthly charts will close soon and many of these indices are poised at interesting levels:
Hang Seng Index: a triangle break building on the monthly chart. A monthly close above this and, also, the 24,000 level would be a rather bullish signal.
FTSE: trading under the 7,000 S/R and psychological whole number level. Another bullish ascending triangle forming up here?
India’s Sensex: A triple top forming here which could be read as ‘bearish’ but it also has a bullish ascending triangle look to it too. As always, trend line breaks and the 21,000 will help to decide here.
Japan’s Nikkei: Now, this is the really interesting index! This has been trading under a bear trend line since 1991! Price is testing that bear trend line this month as it also trades below key S/R in the 15,000 level. Price might well bounce back down from here, as it has done before, but the daily chart is looking rather bullish as it seems to be forming up into a bullish ascending triangle with a touch of ‘bull flag’ look to it! The daily chart shows how price has struggled to break through this trend line on two recent occasions. Maybe this time it might be third time lucky? As per usual, watch for trend line breaks:
NASDAQ: I love the technical obedience here. Note, on the monthly chart, how price has stalled at the 61.8% fib pullback level. Another bullish ascending triangle pattern here on the weekly/daily:
Canada’s TSX: another monthly chart triangle brewing here. The 12,800 level seems very important here and price is currently trading above that level. A monthly close above 12,800 would be a bullish signal:
SPX: S&P500 holding above key 1,685 support for the time being:
INDU: Dow Jones holding above 14,200:
XJO: Aussie stocks S&P/ASX 200: a monthly close above the 5,200 would be a very bullish signal and suggest a bullish ascending triangle break out. Watch trend lines:
Wed 25th Sept:
There are a few large cap stocks that have chart patterns that are looking a bit bearish. These could end up just being consolidation phases BUT, if the general mood with stocks turn bearish, then these might be the more obvious plays to trade. Whereas, NUE and EBAY look a bit bullish.JNJ: Johnson and Johnson is looking a little bearish at the moment. It could be forming up into a bearish H&S pattern with the neckline at about $85. Price is also trading at the bottom edge of the Cloud. A break and close below the neckline would mean a close below the Cloud and would be a bearish signal:
PEP: Pepsi also has a bit of a H&S looking like it is brewing and has now also closed below the Cloud. The neckline here is at about $78:
SWY: that might be a reversal candle on Safeway after a long bullish move:
HD: Home Depot looks a little bearish too as it seems to form up a possible ‘triple top’ region with a neck line at around the $72 region. It is also trading back below the Cloud:
NUE: this stock, however, remains looking bullish with a hold above the $50:
EBAY: this has been one of my favourite stocks to trade this year with selling puts against. It has been chopping sideways a bit of late though so I stepped out to the monthly chart and now I can see why. The $60 area was the previous all time high for this stock back in 2004/5 and it is now back trading just under this key level. This might prove to be a turning point back down if stocks do turn bearish or it might just be gathering steam to take on the $6o level. Price is looking bullish on the Ichimoku chart but range bound on the standard daily chart. Trend line breaks might help here:
Thurs 19th Sept:
FOMC was too kind to the stocks I’ve been stalking. Some have made bullish breaks and other potential breaks are still looming. Updated charts below:
: has made a break. I’m keen to see a weekly close above $50. If so, this would be the first time since Sept 2008!!!!!!!!
SWY: keeping on going
YUM: close to a breakout level
WAG: holding up!
AA: has made a break up from a bullish descending wedge and the 200 EMA PLUS a new TS signal!
ACI: getting close to a breakout:
BTU: getting close too:
X: the bullish break is holding.
FCX: Has made a break out from a bullish descending wedge and over the 200 EMA PLUS given a new TS signal. I’d be more excited but I’m already long this stock!
BAC: I’m still stalking the $15:
Wednesday 18th September:
I am waiting to see how FOMC impacts stocks but these are some other Options I’m looking at if the markets remain bulish:
Jan 2014 Call Options:
NUE $50 @ $2.02
WAG $55 @ $3.02
AA $8 @ $0.62
BAC $15 @ $0.62
MGM $20 @ $1.35
CAT $90 @ $2.50
Tuesday 17th September:
I am aware that this is a news-heavy week with FOMC and the German elections but there are still some stock set ups that look pretty appealing if these markets do continue to hold up. I’ve noted a few more stocks below but the earlier candidates are still on my ‘hit list’ too. I am waiting until after FOMC though!
CAT: Caterpillar: a possible triangle break looming here AND price has broken free from the daily Ichimoku Cloud:
NUE: Nucor: This is a favourite of mine and it is fast approaching a key S/R level but looking bullish as it trades above the Ichimoku Cloud. A close and hold above the $50 would be quite bullish and its got previous form at higher levels:
SWY: Safeway: This stock has given quite a few bullish signals of late. A descending wedge break, followed by a recent triangle break and, also, a break up and above the Ichimoku Cloud:
YUM: Yum Brands: This is one to watch as it trades in a bullish looking, continuation ascending triangle pattern. Price has yet to break free from the Cloud though. Watch for any close and hold above the $75 level:
ACI: Arch Coal: I am still keeping an eye on this one and watching for any close above the trend line and 200 EMA. Price is above the Ichimoku cloud already but I’m wanting more confirmation, including a TS signal.
BTU: Peabody Energy: This is similar to ACI. I’m waiting for any bullish signal and close above the $19 trend line and 200 EMA. Price is already peaking above the Ichimoku cloud:
CLF: Cliff Natural Resources: This continues to hold above support and out of the Ichimoku Cloud but I’m wanting a close above the 200 EMA:
YHOO: This is an example of a stock breaking recent S/R and making good gains on the back of having previous form of much greater ‘highs’. I’m wondering if the stocks above with similar past form can achieve the same:
Friday 13th September:
Now it is Friday 13th and although I’m not superstitious I am aware that the S&P500 index is at a critical level:
That being said though there are still some stocks that have got my interest. Check them out:
X: US Steel: this chart has me very excited! I have been stalking this chart for months watching and waiting for any bullish triangle break and, then, a break above the 200 EMA. There has also been a break up and out of the Ichimoku Cloud! Confluence…confirmation…who cares….yeah!!! The 2014 Jan $21 Call option is at $1.62:
WAG: Walgreen: I have been watching this stock recently thinking that a bullish ‘inverse H&S’ pattern might be setting up. Yesterday’s price action broke through the $51 ‘neck line’ of this pattern and printed a new high for the stock. Price has cleared the Ichimoku Cloud as well:
FCX: Freeport McMoran: this is starting to look quite bullish as it heads up to attempt a potential descending wedge breakout. Price is trading up above the Cloud too for some bullish confirmation. I am LONG this stock:
AA: Alcoa: I’m keeping an eye on this too for any bullish breakout:
BAC: Bank of America: I’m keeping an eye on the $15 level still. A close and hold above this level could be quite bullish:
KBE: SPDR Bank ETF: This seems to be trading in a potentially bullish flag pattern. An upwards break might see price emerge from the Cloud too which would add confirmation. I do note the skepticism of Elliott Wave though! I am long on $24 Call options here.
MU: Micron Technology: I love this stock. I am still long from $6!
NOK: Nokia: that triangle breakout I have been tracking here on my blog over recent months has now given an 85% increase!
SKX: Skechers: that trend line breakout I have been tracking here on my blog over recent months has now given a 25% increase!