Analysis of Results of the TC Trading System Trial: June / July 2017.
Abstract: The TC Trading system for Forex is one that has evolved over recent years to suit what I see as the current market conditions. It is a rules based mechanical system that uses the TC trading algorithm to help execute trades that signal on low time frame charts, that is 5’, 15’, 30’ or 60’ charts, and that evolve with either:
- Trend line breakouts from 4hr chart trading patterns or
- From decent Risk/Rewards situations on moves within 4hr chart trading patterns.
The TC system used to be applied primarily to 4hr chart patterns but my experience has been that market conditions have not been as suitable to this style of trend trading over recent years and, hence, the adaptation described above to focus on lower time frame charts. There are market periods where trading TC off 4hr charts is more suitable and I describe this as when the FX Indices are ‘aligned’ but these conditions have been less frequent over recent years. I still use the TC algorithm for trading stocks and ETFs off daily charts.
The purpose of the recent TC Trading Trial was to determine whether other experienced Forex traders, especially those who could trade the European and US sessions, could translate the TC Trading system to be a profitable trading system and this report is a summary of the TC Trial findings.
Aim: To determine whether experienced Forex traders could translate the TC Trading system to be a profitable trading system.
- A request for experienced and full-time Forex traders to participate in an 8 week TC Trial for June and July of 2017 was sent out through my website.
- All 15 applicants who were interviewed were accepted into the TC Trial.
- Applicants were issued with the TC Trigger indicator, the TC trading template for MT4, a PDF copy of the TC Trading Manual, an Excel spreadsheet for recording results and had access to the supporting chart material on my website. There was also separate e-mail and Skype chat support from myself during this Trial period.
1. A large number of the applicants, 11 of the 15, withdrew from the TC Trial for a variety of reasons and these are summarised below. However, this was to be expected due to the relaxed entry rules (see more on this in the Discussion section).
NB: The TC Trial Participants were promised confidentiality and so are identified by numbers in this report.
|Participant||Reason for withdrawal||Week of withdrawal|
|1||Work situation changed. 1 week of trades but not valid TC trade entries.||1|
|2||The 15 min chart time frame did not suit their trading style. No TC trades.||2|
|3||A F/T trader. TC not an aggressive enough trading program for this very experienced trader. No TC trades.|
|4||Worked F/T. Lost trading account on a Brexit trade result. No TC trades.||2|
|5||Could not separate their own trading bias when trying to trade TC. No TC trades||2|
|6||Was working F/T in another job & could not manage the time commitment. No TC trades.||2|
|7||Could not separate their own trading bias when trying to trade TC. Did not adhere to TC rules.||4|
|8||Worked F/T. Was not able to load the TC Trigger indicator. No TC trades.||1|
|9||Was working F/T in another job & could not manage the commitment. One TC trade.||4|
|10||Was travelling during whole of TC Trial & could not manage the time commitment. No TC trades.||4|
|11||F/T trader. Started in week 2. Traded 4 weeks: 3 x + result and 1 x – result. Went on holidays.||5|
2. Only three of the four remaining traders participated for the full TC Trial. A summary of their trading performance is below.
Key: + : positive trading week – : negative trading week:
|Trader||Wk 1||Wk 2||Wk 3||Wk 4||Wk 5||Wk 6||Wk 7||Wk 8|
|14||–||–||+||+||+||– (Hols)||+ (Hols)||– (Hols)|
3. Observations of Traders 12-15:
Trader 12: Struggled to apply the TC Trading system and to read TC signals and the majority of trades taken were not valid. The one week this trader applied the TC discipline and system correctly was in week 7 and their results were positive.
Trader 13: Kept delaying their Trial start. Applied the TC system correctly for the two weeks they traded and were positive both weeks but took only a few trades.
Trader 14: This trader struggled a bit initially to read the TC signals correctly but, once this regime was mastered, they enjoyed improved success and a rising equity curve with little draw-down. This trader was very disciplined and fully committed to the TC trading system without importing bias from other trading systems. The trading style displayed here is best described as aggressive with a large number of trades taken and confidence with trading a range of Exotic FX pairs. They were an ideal candidate for the TC Trial.
Trader 15: This trader was very competent and mastered the TC rules system quickly to trade positively for each of the 7 weeks they traded. They displayed a more discretionary approach to their trading with fewer trades placed and with no trades on Exotic FX pairs however, apart from the most impressive fact they were positive each week, they also achieved a great tally of 1,367 pips from winning trades with just 62 pips lost over their 7 weeks of trading! This trader was also very disciplined and fully committed to the TC trading system without importing bias from other trading systems. They, too, were an ideal candidate for the TC Trial.
- Selection Criteria:
I had advertised for ‘experienced and full time traders’ but actually allowed entry to all applicants. This was partly responsible for the large drop-off in numbers as those who had other full-time jobs could not afford the time to monitor charts. Some of the traders who withdrew had acknowledged they previously struggled with trading and so, therefore, were also not ideal candidates for my TC Trial either. There ended up being only two traders, Trader 14 and 15, who applied themselves professionally for the full schedule of the TC Trial and who readily and promptly submitted their detailed trade results for review and discussion. These were the two traders who traded most successfully during the TC Trial. I will be more rigorous enforcing selection criteria in any future trader screening.
- Candidates & Trading Bias:
The focus of the TC Trial was to assess the viability of the TC algorithm, however, I could just as easily produce a lengthy document, somewhat akin to that describing the ‘Turtle Trader’ experiment, about the progress of candidates in this TC Trial. Many candidates were not able to separate their prior trading bias when trying to trade the TC Trading System and this proved to be a serious impediment to their progress. There were only two traders, 14 and 15, who applied themselves fully and with great discipline throughout the TC Trial and without any serious trading bias and these were the two traders to make the best progress during the Trial.
- Trial Length:
The TC Trial length of 8 weeks was ideal. The time frame covered June and July which are months that often experience slower trading due to the northern hemisphere Summer but there were still plenty of TC trades to be found.
- TC Trading System: Trader Compatibility:
The process of watching participants during the TC Trial has helped me to understand the qualities of those traders who are best suited to this TC Trading System regime. The TC trading System is suited to those traders who:
- can follow and adhere to the TC trade rule instructions.
- are willing to invest the time to master the TC trading rules.
- are full-time traders.
- are disciplined and committed traders.
- can focus on and commit to a singular trading system.
- approach their trading professionally and document their trades in full.
- are not distracted by other trading systems.
- are not distracted by prior trading bias.
- are patient to wait for ideal TC trade set ups to present.
The results of this Trial reveal that the TC Trading System can be learned and applied by disciplined and committed traders to deliver successful Forex trading results. Successful TC traders noted they achieved a high Win-rate and great Risk to Reward potential. Those full-time traders who can exercise the discipline required to master and adhere to the TC Trading System have the potential to enjoy trading success.
Testimonials: testimonials were sought from the traders who fully committed to the TC Trial.
Testimonial from Trader 14:
“This is the first trading system/strategy that provided me with the proof that I can trade consistently and profitably.
The things I like about the system is the fact that there are the strict rules to open the trades (I don’t over trade, I don’t have FOMO). The fact that I can trail the SL to reduce the risk lets me preserve the capital. The fact that I can trade a lot of instruments provides me with enough signals to generate return. The fact that I must not follow the opened trades reduces screen time and lets me do other things rather than stare the charts for 10 hours a day.
The high win rate is good for psychology and even the very fact that I place trades in the direction of momentum usually means no downside for the trades, they go straight to profit, reducing the stress for the trader.
Of course, there is limits to any system and TC system requires studying the rules carefully, executing trades according to the system and it will take some time to master the system. But the result is worth it for sure!”
Testimonial from Trader 15:
“I had no hesitation signing up for the 8 week TC system trial, as I had already seen some of the results Mary had demonstrated on her blog. Mary was very professional and helpful during the 8 weeks and put a lot of effort into helping me make a success of the trial.
The system is clearly and simply set out in the TC manual, which makes it easy to understand the TC signal process. Over the 8 weeks I found the system easy to use and I feel that simplicity is what gives it gives the system an edge.
By following the system correctly I found it produced a high win rate and Risk : Reward ratio. It was a profitable 8 weeks and I would recommend the TC system to anyone who wants to put the time and effort into trading.”
Future Plans for the TC Trading System:
I am looking for traders who might be interested in trading the TC Trading System on a funded account. If you are an experienced and full time trader who has the Trader Compatibility qualities, listed above, and would be interested in this then please e-mail me at: firstname.lastname@example.org with the subject title as ‘TC Trader Program’. Please also e-mail through to me if you have any questions about this TC Trial.