Trade Week Analysis for 30/06/14

Last week: There was only one TC signal last week and this was on the Kiwi and this signal is still valid. 

Next week: 

I am still away and therefore this is only a brief update. I’ll be back home by mid next week.

Monday is the last day of the trading month and of the trading quarter. Check for monthly candles as they close after Monday.

There is a lot of high impact data in the coming week and this culminates on Thursday with USD NFP. The USD had a bearish week and I’ll be watching for any continuation here in the coming week.

Friday is the July 4th holiday in the USD and hence the ‘big weight’ data item of NFP is released on Thursday next week.

Tuesday is the first day of the trading month and traders need to watch out for new monthly pivot levels.

Silver looks set to close the month with a ‘bullish engulfing candle’ and Gold is essentially forming one too. Watch these after Monday to see how their monthly candles actually close.

Nikkei: this lost ground on Friday BUT still closed above the 15,000 level for the week. A monthly close above this psychological level would be quite bullish.

Data to watch out for:

  • Mon 30th: NZD ANZ Business Confidence. EUR CPI Flash Estimates. USD Pending Home Sales.
  • Tue 1st: CNY Manufacturing PMI. HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI. AUD Cash Rate. GBP Manufacturing PMI. USD ISM Manufacturing PMI.
  • Wed 2nd: AUD Trade Balance. GBP Construction PMI. USD ADP NFP & Fed Chair Yellen speaks.
  • Thurs 3rd: AUD RBA Stevens speaks, Building approvals & Retail Sales. CNY Non- Manufacturing PMI. GBP Services PMI. EUR Cash rate & ECB Press Conference. USD NFP, Trade Balance, Unemployment Rate, Unemployment claims & ISM non-manufacturing PMI..
  • Fri 4th: USD Bank Holiday.

Market sentiment and stocks: The choppiness with FX markets has been seen across many stock markets as well and I see the two phenomena as linked. It is my belief that we won’t see free-trending FX markets return until there is more clarity with the major US stock indices. The S&P500 and DJIA have recently made bullish breaks but the NASDAQ is a bit behind these two as it is trades just under a potential ‘Double Top’.

The S&P500 and DJIA have both held above their ascending triangle breakout levels BUT both had bearish weeks. The S&P500 printed a bearish coloured Doji for its weekly candle and the DJIA printed a bearish coloured ‘Spinning Top’ candle. Both weekly candles were also ‘Inside’ candles and this reflects the huge amount of indecision with stocks, in general, at the moment:

S&P500 daily:


DJIA daily:


I have my suspicions that the S&P500 and DJIA may have been just ‘marking time’ a bit here though last week and waiting for some clarity with the NASDAQ. The NASDAQ has held out from it’s ‘Bull Flag’ breakout BUT now finds itself trading at a potential ‘Double Top’. The key level to watch out here for now is the 4,400 level. I suspect that any break and hold above the 4,400 level for the NASDAQ could mark the start of a further bullish run across all three major US stock indices. A failure here with the NASDAQ and 4,400 level could mark a turning point though too so trend lines need to be watched carefully in this ‘big data’ week.


INTC: This stock looks set to make a bullish monthly close above the $28 level. I’m looking for continuation here:


Forex: Not only are the major US stock indices sitting at pivotal levels but many FX pairs are too. The Cable is sitting just above a multi-year high and key S/R level at 1.70, the Kiwi is sitting just under a multi-year high of 0.88, the GBP/JPY is sitting just under the 173 and just above the monthly 200 EMA; two key levels for this pair and the A/J is sitting just under the monthly chart S/R level of 96. Also, traders need to be mindful of their trading calendars for the coming week as there is a lot of high impact data, especially for the AUD. 

TC Signal: The only open TC signal on the Kiwi hasn’t moved too far but is still valid. The Kiwi is trading under a major resistance level of the three year high of 0.88:

Kiwi 4 hr:


Kiwi monthly:


Other FX:

E/U: chopped higher last week and closed just below the major S/R level of 1.365. Any close and hold above this level would be bullish:


E/J: still chopping around within the daily chart’s ‘Flag’ pattern:

E/J 4 hr:


E/J daily:


A/U: bullish as it holds the week above the key 0.94 level:

A/U 4hr:


A/U daily Cloud: Price is still above the daily Ichimoku Cloud but the signal hasn’t really got going just yet:


A/J: not as successful as the A/U as it closed below the key 96 level. The 96 is a major S/R level for the A/J though and this is best viewed on the monthly chart:

A/J 4 hr:


A/J monthly:


Cable: has held the week above the key 1.7 level and this is a bullish signal:


U/J: the triangle breakdown would have been enough for some traders as a trade signal last week but I didn’t receive a new TC signal here. The U/J is trading within a ‘Flag’ on the daily chart and the bottom trend line of this flag is at 100.7. Price is still a fair way above this for the time being:

U/J 4hr:


U/J daily:


GBP/JPY: price couldn’t hold above the 173 level last week and appears to be trading within a smaller channel on the 4 hr time frame. I do note though that price managed to close the week out above the monthly 200 EMA S/R level:


EUR/AUD: still in a descending channel on the daily time frame:


AUD/NZD: this remains below the daily trend line and I wouldn’t be surprised to see this re-visit the lows from the 1.05 region:


GBP/AUD: also still trading within a descending channel on the daily time frame. Watch for any trend line break here:


Silver and Gold: both of these will be worth watching next week as the swathe of high impact data might trigger decisive moves with the USD and, thus, trigger movement for both Gold and Silver. Both of these metals spent last week consolidating above key levels and any further USD weakness could see both of these continue to rally.

Silver: Silver continues holding out from the weekly chart’s triangle breakout. Watch for any continuation here if USD weakness continues. The monthly chart is showing that Silver looks set to form a huge ‘engulfing’ candle when the monthly candle closes on Monday:

Silver 4 hr:


Silver weekly:


Silver monthly: watch for the monthly candle close after Monday:


Gold: this spent the week consolidating above the $1,300 level and daily 200 EMA. Price action has formed up into a triangle pattern on the 4hr chart. Watch for any bullish continuation if USD weakness continues:

Gold 4hr:


Gold weekly: The bullish ‘Inverse H&S’ pattern is still forming up here quite nicely:


Gold monthly: Gold might close back up within the monthly Cloud after three months of closing below the Cloud. An, essentially, ‘bullish engulfing’ candle looks set to from here too!



4 thoughts on “Trade Week Analysis for 30/06/14

    • Thanks Slavatore,

      Obviously your English is better than my Italian!



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