Trading Week 01/04/13

Saturday ( 6.30 am)
Some mixed data out of NFP has raised a bit of fear and seems to have traders thinking that QE will be around for a bit. The USD fell and Gold/Silver rose. Strangely, the falling USD seems to have boosted the Euro as the E/U has enjoyed a good US trading session.

USDX: has fallen below the key support of the 61.8% fib level:

EURX: so, if the USD falls, the EURX goes up

The NFP winner has to be Gold. Up $25!

E/U: has rallied on the USD misfortune:

E/U gave a great 30 min trade after NFP.

These choppy divergent markets have one thing that remains consistent: trends are choppy off 4 hr time frames and better off the 30 min charts during the US session.

Friday 5th (9.15 pm)
The USDX is still above the 61.8% fib level, for now. I think this level will become a ‘line in the sand’ level for this index:

Friday 5th (7.15 pm)
The E/U has touched back down at the 1.29 level. I’m waiting until after NFP though. I’m hoping that some new momentum will pick up after NFP and into next week. Fingers crossed.

Friday 5th (4 pm)
Gold and Silver
There isn’t too much happening ahead of NFP so I thought I’d look at the metals. They are both approaching major support levels and the success, or failure, of these levels to hold price will probably determine their next major move. Some people are jumping in now saying its a great price to buy in at. For me, I’d be waiting to see whether these support levels hold or not first.

A poor NFP report tonight might spark a bit of fear and, thus, help to support these metals. Positive data though might spell bad news for them as traders, perhaps buoyed and somewhat more confident, look for alternative, dividend paying ‘risk appetite’ instruments. We’ll have to wait and see. I’m no expert here and these are just my humble musings.

Gold: I’ve been mentioning for weeks now how $1,525 was major support for Gold. This level is just below current price now.
Gold monthly


Gold weekly: $1,525 is clear support:


Gold daily


Gold 4hr : it’s been a bad week for Gold. Is this a bear flag setting up or a reversal?

GLD ETF: The Gold ETF is sitting right on top of $150 major support too. A breach of this might set up a good Put buying opportunity:
GLD weekly

GLD daily 

Silver:  $26 is the major support level here and price is just above this now:
Silver monthly

Silver weekly 

Silver daily

Silver 4hr: It’s been a bad week for Silver too. Is this a bear flag setting up or a reversal?

SLV ETF: The Silver ETF is sitting right on major support @ $26 here now too. There might be some Put buying opportunity here too:
SLV weekly

SLV daily

Friday 5th (10.15 am)
No new signals anywhere just yet. I suspect people are concerned about the NFP and Trade Balance data results that are due out later tonight.

E/U: I’m thinking that this pair will at least test the 1.29, or even the trend line, before any continued possible bullish moves.

Friday 5th (6.30 am)
Well, there have been some fireworks over the last 24hrs, courtesy of the BoJ, with further Yen easing, and Super Mario with no rate cuts. I’d had the E/U in a bullish descending wedge and I’m sure some thought I was a tad crazy here. Well, the bullish breakout has kicked in overnight. This actually gave a 100 pip move on the 30 min charts during the US session. Sound familiar?
E/U daily

E/U 4hr 

E/U 30 min: 

Interestingly, I don’t have a TS signal on the 4hr chart….yet!

Stocks haven’t joined in the risk on fun that the E/U enjoyed. Some further poor jobs data and Fed vagueness has tempered moves there:

There is clear divergence now across the Ichimoku Index charts. The USDX is above the Cloud on the daily but below on the 4hr:

The EURX  is below the Cloud on the daily but above on the 4hr:

The E/G signal is limping along

The Cable has reversed after the BoE left rates and QE on hold. This clearly buoyed sentiment. I had been wary of relying on this 4hr bearish pattern given the bullish pin bar reversal candle from March. The bearish breakdown move did deliver up to 100 pips though:

There is NFP out tonight. A poor result here could really upset market sentiment. 
It’s basically impossible to trade these markets on 4hr charts from a technical perspective when news and Govt monetary policy intervention is driving so much of the movement.

Thursday 4th (8.30 pm) Possible SPY trade yields up to 65% (see 6 am write up)!
The Kiwi signal has closed off and may give a short signal soon:

The Yen easing has seen the E/J, U/J and A/J rocket up. This has produced signals but I’d be wary of significant retrace here. The E/U is trying for a short. The G/U is paused ahead of rate news.

Thursday 4th (6.15 pm) Possible SPY trade yields up to 65% (see 6 am write up)!
I’m so confused….they’re both up….the USDX and the EURX!

I missed the fun of the Yen moves and suspect they’re responsible for this.

Thursday 4th (2.30 pm) Possible SPY trade yields up to 65% (see 6 am write up)!
There is GBP data out later tonight and NFP tomorrow. I don’t think much will happen until NFP is known.

Thursday 4th (11.45 am) Possible SPY trade yields up to 65% (see 6 am write up)!
The index charts were aligned all last week to favour ‘risk off’ trading BUT few of the pairs were keen to get involved. There is bias towards ‘risk on’ and this is most likely due to US monetary policy or, as some call it, “The Bernanke Put” but, also, due to some reasonably encouraging global economic data of late.

The indices now though are poised such that they could flip to risk on or risk off rather quickly. The USDX is struggling to stay up in the Cloud on the 4hr time frame. A fall below would be bearish for the USD and bullish for ‘risk on’:

The EURX looks to be heading up to the 4hr Cloud. A push up through this would be bullish for the Euro and for ‘risk on’:

Stocks have pulled back a bit today and so we are poised at significant levels. I am a trend follower  and my location means I rely on 4hr charts so, I’ll continue to wait until a clear new trend emerges.

Thursday 4th (6 am) Possible SPY trade yields up to 65%!
It’s been the weird and the wonderful again overnight. Stocks have been down on some poor economic data and, now, it seems North Korea has their attention too. Strangely though, even with this fear, the USD was down, the EURX remained in flat lining mode BUT currencies opted for a bit of ‘risk on’. So, still no alignment between currencies and stocks.

USDX: fear rose overnight but the USD fell:

The EURX is just waiting on the sidelines for someone to tell it what to do:

S&P500: was down and gave a great SPY Put trade opportunity (details down later)

E/U: ran with more ‘risk on’ overnight, opposite to stocks. Maybe short covering though??

G/U: the Cable has pulled back but I’m wondering if this is just testing the broken trend line before falling further?


Gold was hit again in the US session, even with a falling USD and some fear creeping in!

Oil: had a fall too and this was also with rising fear and falling USD. Strange!

Divergence: The USDX 4hr has been in and out of the Ichimoku Cloud setting up for divergence and, thus, market choppiness. These markets are traditionally ones where it is better to trade from the 30 min charts during the US session. The last few days have shown that too. There was a great SPY trade opportunity last night:

SPY Put trade:
A signal came through on the S&P500 30 min chart when the SPY was at $1,560:

Thus, I would have looked to BUY the April SPY $156 Put Option: 

This Option opened at $1.12 and, at the time of this write up, was trading at $1.85. That is an increase of $0.73 cents. The ROIC for this trade would have been:
ROIC = ($0.73/$1.12) x 100 = 65%

The 4hr signals are struggling with this choppiness:
G/U: back near entry

 Kiwi:

E/G:

Wednesday 3rd (7.30 pm)
I’m wary still with the Cable. GBP data out just now was less than expected but, still, better than last time.

Wednesday 3rd (6.50 pm)
There is no clear trend. This can be seen from the EURX on the 4hr chart and the daily chart:

Wednesday 3rd (1.15 pm)
I’m wary of taking the Cable now on a 4 hr trade after:

  1. missing the initial signal (it came through on my midnight candle)
  2. after the big move from yesterday and 
  3. given all the GBP red flag news over the next couple of days, including interest rate news. 

Also, there are BOJ meetings ahead and then NFP!

Wednesday 3rd (8 am)
The E/G has now given a TS signal:

That makes 3 current signals: Kiwi, E/G and Cable.

Wednesday 3rd (6 am)
It seems like no news was good news for stocks overnight:

This was accompanied by a boost in the USD.

The EURX has been pretty flat though:

The Index charts are still aligned for ‘risk off’ but the EURX is still holding up pretty well within a trend channel for the time being:

There is still divergence between stocks and currencies though. Currencies were not in on this ‘risk on’ move:
The E/U was down:

The A/U was down too:

The Cable made the biggest move last night. It has now broken down from its bearish ascending wedge and has also given a 4hr TS signal. This signal came after my midnight candle. I’m wary of chasing this trade just now as price is well outside the 4hr chart Bollinger band. The joys of the Aussie trading zone!:

This pair provided a great 30 min trade though from the London session:

This might be the start of a big bear flag move down for this pair:

Gold was also hit hard last night and similarly gave a great 30 min trade opportunity, starting off in the London session:

The Kiwi signal is still positive but I wouldn’t be keen on this trade:

The EUR/GBP is trying to form a signal:

Oil: is holding up but dancing along the trend line:

  • I still waiting for stocks and currencies to get back into some mutual rhythm. 
  • I’m going to look to try to get in on the G/U trade safely if it pauses or pulls back a little.

Tuesday 2nd (9.15 pm)
The Kiwi had given a signal after the 8pm candle:

It is still choppy though on the EURX. Price is trading below the Cloud but reluctant to trade ‘risk off’ at this stage:

E/U: still chopping around in a bullish wedge pattern:

Tuesday 2nd (7.30 pm)
The EUR and GBP data was poor and this has sent the E/U and Cable down. The indices are back in alignment for ‘risk off’ now so I’ll be on the lookout for any new TS signals in line with this.

Tuesday 2nd (6.30 pm)
The USDX is stuck between the monthly pivot and the 61.8% fib level:

There is some EUR and GBP data out later that might get things moving.

BTW: I have posted a new page of Stocks I’m watching @ Stocks: April. The page can be found by clicking on the link.

Tuesday 2nd (6 pm)
The USDX is pulling back a bit and still holding above the 61.8% fib level:

It is also stuck in the 4hr Ichimoku Cloud:

Tuesday 2nd (4 pm)
Well, the signals did not evolve as yet. They may do after the next candle though.

Now….what was I saying about the significance of the 61.8% fib level??????

BTW: I have posted a new page of Stocks I’m watching @ Stocks: April. The page can be found by clicking on the link.

Tuesday 2nd (2.50 pm)
E/U: I see it but I’m struggling to believe it! I’m most likely going to get a signal form up on the E/U at my 4pm candle close. I’ve been noting the bullish pattern on the E/U daily chart for some time. I still don’t see why there would be demand for Euros BUT I will trade what I see.
E/U daily

E/U 4hr 

Aussie: I’ll get a signal on the A/U probably too:

Cable: and the G/U too:

Tuesday 2nd (2 pm)
Note how the USDX has paused at the 61.8% fib level of 82.59!

The weekly USDX chart shows how this level might just be being tested after the earlier break out and up. This will probably be an important level for this index this week:

The monthly chart shows how this fib level was calculated. The 82.59 represents a 61.8% pull back from the last swing low (April 2011) to the previous swing high value (mid 2010)

Tuesday 2nd (12.40 pm)
I’m wondering if this is the extent of the pull back?

The Ichimoku charts had been aligned for ‘risk off’ most of last week but, even with all the Euro related dramas, there was very little interest from many of the pairs to join in.

BTW: I have posted a new page of Stocks I’m watching @ Stocks: April. The page can be found by clicking on the link.

Tuesday 2nd (12.20 pm)
The USDX is falling today and is now back below the Cloud! So, we are back into divergence and may be on the way back to ‘risk on’.

The E/U is trying to form a LONG signal!

A/U: I have a signal forming up to LONG here too BUT there is RBA data out at 2.30 pm so I’d wait until after that:

BTW: I have posted a new page of Stocks I’m watching called Stocks: April. The page can be found by clicking on the link.

Tuesday 2nd (6.45 am)
Stocks have lagged on the first day of the trading month following some poor US data. Trading was light though given the Easter break in many regions. The USDX was down and the EURX has traded up though…just to thoroughly confuse us!
USDX daily

EURX daily: still trading under the Cloud BUT within the trading channel:

S&P500 30 min : down in light trading:

E/U: strangely, although risk appetite was absent with stocks it helped to boost the E/U

A/U: was also lifted back above the 1.04 level ahead of RBA rate news scheduled for later today:

Recently we have stocks up with currencies down. Last night it was stocks down with currencies up. This seems to be part of the continued choppiness associated with a market that does not know what new direction to take.

I don’t have any 4hr TS signals.

The E/G signals from last week has now closed off:

Easter Monday 1st (8.40 pm)
Pull backs around now. No clear new overall direction:

No TS signals anywhere either.

So, I’m helping a friend plan their Thai family holiday.  The other LOVE in my life….travel!

Easter Monday 1st (4 pm)
There has been a bit of ‘risk off’ movement BUT I don’t have any TS signals yet. The A/U has closed below the 1.04 level BUT I don’t have a TS signal AND with this lower liquidity and RBA out tomorrow I’d be loathe to take a trade based on this just yet:

Stocks: I have spent a couple of hours reviewing over some stocks/ETFs that are making technical moves BUT have not achieved there previous highs just yet. Thus, to me, there seems plenty of scope for them to keep moving if stocks continue to rally. I’m heading out shortly so I’ll be posting these up tomorrow.

Easter Monday 1st (1.30 pm)
The Chinese PMI data was worse than expected, BUT, it was still a better reading than the last one.The AUD and EUR sold off a bit after the initial release but it remains to be seen if this gloomy mood will hold:

E/U: the ADX has ticked up but I don’t have a full TS signal here yet:

A/U: ditto here in that the ADX has ticked up but I don’t have a full TS signal here yet. Price dropped below the all important 1.04 level BUT I want to see where this 4hr candle closes:

This is worth reading:
http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2013/04/01/china-march-manufacturing-pmi-recap/

Easter Monday 1st (11.40 am)

I’m not expecting too much FX movement today given the Easter holidays around the markets but the Chinese data could cause some action. It is due out in 20 min.
There seems to be an increasing amount of chest beating coming out of North Korea and I’m wondering if this is what motivated some of the move up with Oil last week. I’ve read there has been increasing demand from China but that’s about it so far.