Trading Week 01/07/13

Friday 5th July (San Fran updated 8.10 am)

The better than expected US jobs data has sent the USD above the key resistance of 84. I’m watching to see if it continues from here or becomes a triple top:

Interestingly, the EURX is still trading within the bull flag on the daily chart….for now at least: 

Stocks: have not reacted well to this good jobs news. Weird….ain’t it….good news is read as bad news! I’ll be keen to see if stocks close above the 1,600 level for the week. This will be a crucial test!

S&P500 Ichimoku: expect further choppiness whilst price action is in the Ichimoku Cloud:

Price is still below the daily trend line too….for now:

E/U: the major monthly trend line and key 1.28 level are offering some support here: 

A/U: watch out if the 90 fails….look out 83! A sell signal is building here but hasn’t fully formed just yet!

EUR/AUD: I’d wanted a pull back to 1.4 but it didn’t quite get there: 

Kiwi: A sell signal is building here but hasn’t fully formed just yet! 
G/U: I had missed this signal and price has also now broken through the 1.50 level:
Gold: hasn’t like the jobs data and has given a signal on the 4hr chart. I’d be wary shorting though above the $1,200 support level. Might be better to wait to see a close below this key support:

Thurs 4th July (San Fran 7am)

The USDX has rallied and the EURX has fallen primarily due to dovish comments out of Europe from ECB and UK central banks expressing their bias for further easing if needed. 
The USDX is having another attempt at the 84 resistance level:

EURX: still in the triangle but maybe not for long: 

Ichimoku Cloud:
USDX: we now have the USDX above the daily Cloud in both the 4hr and daily time frames:

EURX: Price is in the Cloud on the daily and emerging below the Cloud on the 4hr:

This latest shift in momentum may put the indices back into a ‘risk off; alignment. I’ll be watching for that. The markets continue to chop and struggle with an (apparently) improving US economy but weaker economics from other global entities. This, along with negotiating market tops across many stock indices, is making for choppy and difficult trading conditions. 
Stocks: continue to surprise. The S&P500 is drifting up and the weekly chart still looks like a possible ‘Bull Flag’. There might be a re-alignment of the USD and Stocks to one where they trade directly rather than inversely:

E/U: Super Mario helped this ‘short’

G/U: Mr Carney ruined this ‘LONG”

A/U: off doing its own thing

U/J: doesn’t know what to do so hanging near the safety of the 100 zone.

Kiwi: about to give a ‘LONG’ signal!

EUR/AUD: has been hit by ECB comments. I’m watching the trend line and the 1.40 area. I was keen to long at/near 1.40 but I’ll wait to see signs of a reversal back up beforehand. These latest ECB comments may just change the landscape for this pair: 

GBP/AUD: Mr Carney ruined this signal to LONG too. This is now trying to give a SHORT:

I’ll be waiting until next week. the 4th July holiday here in the US and NFP on tomorrow will mean increased volatility. The S&P500 continues to hold above the key 1,600 level helping to maintain a ‘risk on’ approach there but the bias across currencies is to ‘risk off’. An ongoing conundrum!

Wed 3rd July (SF 6 am)

Europe is back on the scene again with jitters about Portugal offsetting positve US data. The EURX has fallen yet the USD still hovers just under key resistance at 84:
USDX: stuck under the 84 still for now:

EURX: ‘Fundamentals’ can always undermine this ‘technical’ pattern:

S&P500: note how the S&P500 has failed to get back above the Ichimoku Cloud and the daily trend line:  

S&P500 weekly: still no decisive breakout here yet though…either way: 
E/U: gave a sell signal when the 1.30 level broke:
E/J: this signal closed off:
Cable: this has given a BUY signal and had a trend line break. It might be the new favourite if the Euro goes out of fashion!
U/J: this signal has closed now too:

A/U: this keeps falling courtesy of the RBA but I never seem to get a clean TS signal on the 4hr charts. 
A/J: I have a new sell signal here and it may give a quick scalp kind of trade down 100 pips to the key 89 level BUT I think it would be safer to see if the 89 level breaks, and, then take it from there. The 89 level is huge support here and this can be better seen from the weekly chart below:

Kiwi: not doing too much:

GBP/AUD: this has given a new signal too but has a bit of a possible ‘double top’ look to it at the moment:

Silver: fairly flat so far this week:

Gold: ditto

Tuesday 2nd July (9am San Fran)
USDX: some positive data has boosted the USD

EURX: down but still in the triangle pattern:

Stocks: up overall:

Stocks weekly: this could still be a bull flag!

E/U: still hanging in above the 1.30 and no sell signal yet: 

E/J: signal well up now

A/U: down on RBA comments but no sell signal here yet either: 

U/J: up too and it seems to be dragging other Yen pairs with it:

Cable: still in a channel: 

Gold: down on the positive data it seems: 

Some signals above are tempting but with the US 4th July holiday, ECB and NFP news I’ll be waiting for next week, especially as I’m on the road.

Monday 1st July (updated 11 am Napa)

USDX: We are seeing some USD weakness:

EURX: bouncing up and back above the 108.5 level again. Maybe that bullish ascending triangle will play out.

Ichimoku Charts: The USDX in the Cloud on the daily so will be choppy BUT the EURX has bounced back up and out of its daily Cloud. I’m waiting for a clear new trend to emerge:



Gold: I’m watching to see if the $1,200 level has been a floor for Gold. Any continued USD weakness will help this metal:

E/U: this is holding up above the 1.30 for now:

A/U: this signal closed off for a loss of 100 pips. The daily chart shows price still trading in a descending channel:

EUR/AUD: this signal closed off too. I’m looking to LONG this at 1.40:

G/U: still in a channel on the 4hr chart:

U/J: this gave a signal last week that has gone on nicely. The 100 will be a key level again though:

E/J: just noticed this also gave a signal last week and it also broke out of the flag pattern I’d had in this chart. The 130 will be a key level here too:

I’m heading down to San Fran from Napa today.