Trading Week 02/09/13

Fri 6th Sept (10 pm)

E/J: that TS signal did form up on my 7 pm candle:

Fri 6th Sept (5.50 pm)

EURX: this has closed below the 108.5 on the 4hr candle, a bearish development indeed! We need to see where the daily candle closes though:

E/J: a possible TS ‘short’ signal is setting up here. I need my 7 pm candle close but, being a Friday night, I’m out!

AUD/NZD: Is this one almighty big ‘Bear Flag’ OR a bottoming and reversal pattern?

Fri 6th Sept (4.30 pm)

USDX: I, like many other traders, will be keen to see how NFP impacts the USD. It is currently sitting at major S/R level in the 82.59 region being the 61.8% fib pullback from the last major swing high:
USDX weekly showing the 61.8% fib level:

S&P500: what impact will there be on stocks? Will the daily support trend line hold?

Will price emerge from the Ichimoku Cloud? 

Will there be a great SPY trade opportunity off the 30 min charts? 
U/J: will NFP help the U/J clear the 100?
What will any stronger USD do to the AUD pairs? Will the Aussie election result trump this?



Lots of questions and no answers yet.
There might be gaps on Monday morning.

Fri 6th Sept (12.45 pm)

USDX: price is back trying to get up through the Ichimoku daily Cloud:

EURX: price has now moved back below the daily Ichimoku Cloud after being above, or in the top edge of, the Cloud for 5 months. 
This is a new and rather bearish development.

Fri 6th Sept (12.20 pm)

A/J: this has closed now it seems:
U/J: ditto

Fri 6th Sept (5.40 am)

USDX: the USD traded higher on the back of some good data and has popped over the 61.8% fib retrace level:
The weekly chart shows the importance of the 61.8% 

EURX: was doing just fine until Super Mario and the ECB press statement uttered news of maintaining low rates:

A closer look here at the EURX: the weekly support trend line is still broken. I am still looking at this break with an open mind though. Price is back down now at the support level of 108.5. This has been a major S/R level over recent months as the condensed daily chart shows. A close and hold back below this 108.5 would be another bearish signal here for this index:

I’ve re-drawn trend lines around price action for the trend line break. It is still looking like a bit of a bullish pattern for now as it shapes up into a ‘descending broadening wedge’! As always, trend line breaks around key levels will help to guide further: 

S&P500: no 30 min trade here 

Stocks still trapped in the Cloud for now

They are still supported by the daily trend line: 
Some signals have closed off overnight:
A/U: closed after giving 200. This does have a bit of a Bull Flag look to it now but it will be challenged if the USD keeps rising:
E/J: closed after giving 90: 

G/U: closed after just 70:

The following TS signals are still going:
A/J: up to 240 pips

EUR/AUD: up to 350 pips:

Kiwi: flat

U/J: up to 80 pips AND the 100 has been breached now!

Silver: struggling with the rising USD: 
Gold: ditto here and a possible H&S break: 

Thursday 5th (9 pm)

S&P500: I can’t trade the US session but the S&P500 might be setting up for another 30 min trend trade opportunity:

Thursday 5th (7.40 pm)

E/A: this TS signal has closed after giving up to 350 pips:

Kiwi: this signal has closed too for a loss of -30 pips:

E/J: this signal is still going AND a trend line break is just ahead of price now:

Silver and Gold: still trading above the ‘neck line’ of their possible H&S patterns: 

Thursday 5th (7 pm)

Indices: some spikes starting ahead of key news events.
USDX: might just be building up steam to take on the 82.59 level again!
EURX: this could be forming into a bear flag rather than any larger bull flag. I think it’s best to wait to assess until after all the news events 

U/J: the 100 level is a huge one here. Look for any close and hold above this. It’s a psychological level and the edge of the monthly Ichimoku. There is an open TS signal on this pair at the moment that is up about 70 pips:

U/J 4hr

U/J daily

U/J weekly

U/J monthly

U/J monthly Cloud:

Thursday 5th (4.50 pm)

Indices: the EURX is looking a bit fragile ahead of data due out later:

USDX: seeing a bit of a bounce

Thursday 5th (10.55 am)

S&P500…again: I was just looking at the S&P500 on my charting platform. I note that the neckline of any possible H&S pattern would be at the 1,577 level. This is a key level because this is also the region of the previous ‘highs’ from back in 2000 and 2007. The 1,685 is the break of the previous new high from this year and forms the ‘shoulder’ of any possible H&S:

S&P500 daily

S&P500 monthly

Thursday 5th (10 am)

There are a lot of events on the remainder of the trading calendar this week that traders need to be careful of: AUD elections, NFP, G20 and both ECB and GBP rates etc.
Aussie Election relief: any clear cut, and majority, election result might be bullish for the AUD. This follows on from a hung parliament, leadership challenges and a lengthy campaign. Thus any clear cut result, no matter which party pins, might signal relief and thus support the AUD. I thought I’d review the Aussie pairs I watch.
A/J: I’ve been looking at possible targets for any continued bullish moves here. Price is currently struggling a bit under the daily 200 EMA and it may end up sitting there now until NFP and elections etc. A break, close and hold above the daily 200 EMA would be quite bullish. A 61.8% pullback from the last major swing high would be to about the 98 area. The 50% fib pullback is in the 96 area:
A/U: Price is currently sitting under the 0.92 and, like the A/J, may end up sitting there now until after NFP and elections etc. A break, close and hold above the 0.92 would be quite bullish. A 50% pullback from the last major swing high would be to about the 0.97 area.This is also the region of the daily and weekly 200 EMA so might be a possible target. 

Thursday 5th (8 am)

S&P500: the TS ‘short’ signal has now closed. I had stated last w/e that it would be wise to wait to ‘short’ until after there was any break of the daily trend line. Price has held above the daily trend line though and is actually starting to look bullish again. Price has not managed to close out of the Cloud just yet and that may offer some resistance. I’ll be watching the 1,685 level should price continue to rally from here. This is a key S/R level for the index now and, also, the ‘shoulder’ of any possible H&S pattern:

It is important to note that any new bullish Tenkan/Kijun cross on the S&P500 may be a ‘strong’ signal IF this cross occurs when price is above the Cloud. Something else to watch out for!

I consider that any trades on the S&P500 chart are safest to take from the 30 min time frame during the US session though whilst price is stuck in the Cloud.

Thursday 5th (6 am)
The USDX has stalled at the 82.59…again. 

EURX: It might just be that ‘Bull Flag’ I was suspecting!

S&P500: stocks are still holding above daily support

BUT…they’re not out of the Cloud just yet! 

SPY Trade: The US session gave another great 30 min SPY trade opportunity last night. I got a LONG signal when the index was at 1,642. Thus, if trading this session, I would have bought the $165 Call Option:
The Sept $165 Call Option opened at $1.76 and closed at $2.29, an increase of $0.53 cents:

The ROIC= ($0.53/$1.76) x 100 = 30% ! Now, the price of the ETF would have moved a bit before any trade entry but even a slice of 30% would be ok for a low risk trade AND for just one day of trading.
Most of the open TS signals are doing well:
A/U: this has given up to 200 pips. The 0.92 level will give this some pause perhaps:

The A/U is in the daily Cloud now!

A/J: this has given up to 230 pips:

A/J is also in the daily Cloud now

EUR/AUD: has given 350 pips. Note the reversal style candle though. This might pause or reverse here 
Cable: even this signal has kicked into life:

AUD/NZD: this signal has closed after just 70 pips:

GBP/AUD: not clean TS signal here on the 4hr chart BUT the daily chart shows a trend line break looming: 

U/J: is still stalled under the 100 level:

Kiwi: This gave a new TS signal on my 11 pm candle:
Silver and Gold: The Gold signal has failed and I might be seeing things but their are H&S type patterns setting up here. There is one problem though and that is that the neck lines are sloping the wrong way:

Wednesday 4th Sept (4.50 pm)

And just quickly…from this morning…maybe it will be the ‘Bull Flag’ option??

Wednesday 4th Sept (4.40 pm)
Just before I go….a quick look at Aussie stock market indices….
XAO:  All ordinaries

XJO: ASX 200

XSO: Small Caps: a bullish inverse ‘H&S’ brewing here?

The thought of possible ‘breaks’ got me remembering this Aussie song !

Wednesday 4th Sept (4.20 pm)
No major changes. Gold drifting a bit lower though. AUD still powering along.

I’m out at my son’s school for a few hours. Back later.

Wednesday 4th Sept (12 noon)

GBP/AUD: this didn’t give a clean TS ‘short’ off the 4hr charts BUT it is heading for a trend line break on the daily charts:

The other AUD TS signals are powering along though:
A/U: 80 pips

A/J 120 pips

EUR/AUD: 220 pips

AUD/NZD: 70 pips

Wednesday 4th Sept (8.10 am)

Gold: has given a TS signal on my 4hr 7am candle:

Wednesday 4th Sept (5.45 am)

EURX: A bearish trend line break OR Bull Flag forming?
I’m a bit perplexed here with the EURX. I noted in my w/e update how the major support trend line had been broken. This is still the case but I’m also open to the notion that this could be a ‘Bull Flag’ in the making as price continues to struggle under the resistance of the monthly 200 EMA:
EURX monthly chart showing trend line break:

EURX 4 hr: I have drawn trend lines in and this is what prompted my thoughts of a possible Bull Flag. Trend line breaks might help guide me here: 

USDX: I mentioned yesterday that price might aim for the previous S/R value of 82.59. Price bounced off this a bit overnight:

Why 82.59? This is the region of the 61.8% fib pullback from the last major swing high: 

Silver and Gold: 
Gold has risen overnight probably due to the Syria situation. It has had a channel break and looks like it is set to give a TS signal off my 7am candle:

Silver: not as perky as Gold

S&P500: stocks have struggled overnight with a rising USD and more Syria concern:

AUD: this has been the standout winner so far this week! I think it can see the end of our federal Election and is getting a bit excited to reach a conclusion, no matter what the result!
A/U: has given up to 80 pips off the TS signal and looking set to make a significant trend line break. And, all of this with a rising USD, falling stocks and Syria concern! 
A/U 4hr

A/U daily

The Ichimoku charts for the A/U are interesting. Price is trying to break through the 4hr BUT is still under the daily Cloud. The tops of the Cloud act as resistance though:

A/J: this is looking more bullish now too with a daily trend line break looming as well: 
A/J 4hr

A/J daily

The Ichimoku charts are interesting here too. Price has broken through the 4hr Cloud and is attemtpting the daily Cloud:

EUR/AUD: the best of the TS signals as it has given the most pips: 
E/A 4hr

E/A daily

AUD/NZD: this gave a TS signal off my 11 pm candle overnight:
A/N 4hr

A/N daily

E/J: choppy:

G/U: ditto

Kiwi: this TS signal has now closed and price is back below the weekly 200 EMA:

U/J: still chopping sideways under the resistance of the whole number 100 level after the daily trend line break:
U/J 4hr

U/J daily:

Tuesday 3rd Sept (6.15 pm)

A/J: I’m watching to see if the ‘Hanging Man’ reversal candle is on the money!

Tuesday 3rd Sept (6 pm)

Indices:check out the Bollinger bands on the indices! This is a warning!


S&P500: the top of the Kumo (Cloud) will act as some resistance. Also, I’m still watching the 1,685 level:

Tuesday 3rd Sept (4 pm)

Indices: The USDX continues to rise and this is putting pressure on the EURX:


A/U: this signal is up and price is back sitting under a daily trend line. Further rallies with the USDX will make it harder for the Aussie to keep going. Any continued bounce with stocks and the S&P500 might help the A/U though:

A/U 4hr

A/U daily

A/J: this signal is up too and price has broken through the daily trend line but we need to see if the daily candle closes above this trend line:

A/J 4hr

A/J daily

E/J: TS signal is struggling here:

EUR/AUD: the best of the TS signals. Watch now to see if the daily candle closes below this trend line: 
Cable: this TS signal is struggling too
Kiwi: TS signal up about 20 

U/J: this is heading for some trend line breaks:
U/J daily: this is a major break looming here. Check to see if the daily candle closes above the trend line though.
U/J daily Ichimoku: price might break out of the daily Cloud. Check to see where the daily candle closes!

U/J monthly Ichimoku: we’ve got a bit of a wait to see if the monthly candle closes out of the Cloud!

S&P500: this index seems to be holding its bounce off the daily support trend line for the time being. Remember though, I am watching for any bounce that might be constrained by the 1,685 level and, thus, possibly form up into a bearish ‘H&S’ pattern! The TS ‘short’ signal looks set to close off:

Note how the bottom of the Ichimoku Cloud also helped to hold up price action: 

Tuesday 3rd Sept (6 am)

The USD drifted a bit higher overnight during the US holiday Monday and stalled the ‘risk on’ rally that had started during the Asian session. Most of the pairs had moved most of their daily range by the European session anyway.
USDX: might be aiming, yet again, for the previous S/R value of 82.59, the 61.8% fib level from the major swing high:

EURX: chopped sideways

E/J: paused after yesterday’s huge move

AUD: there is interest rate data today so don’t expect too much from AUD pairs until after that announcement:

A/U: was always going to ‘park’ near the key S/R value of 0.90

A/U 4hr + fibs: Another view of the A/U and the 0.90 level: This pair is in a downtrend and the 0.90 level represents a 61.8% fib level pullback from last weeks ‘high’. Some traders would have looked to ‘short’ then at the 0.90 level. This pair looks set to close the day below the 0.90 level which is a bit bearish BUT if interest rates are kept on hold today, as is expected, then that could help to lift this pair:
A/J: this is at a major level again being above the key 89 and just under a daily trend line:

E/A: this too has paused near a daily support trend line:

Cable: has drifted lower

Kiwi: trying to hold above the weekly 200 EMA

E/U: no signal here but this is stuck around the 1.32

Silver: still holding up and out from the channel

Gold: still range bound

Monday 2nd Sept (7.30 pm)

There are quite a few TS signals from my 7pm candle after the big ‘risk on’ moves from today: E/J, A/U, A/J, E/A, Kiwi, Cable and U/J:







Monday 2nd Sept (5 pm)

The first day of the trading month is, more often than not, bullish for ‘risk on’. This has been the case today through the Asian session on the back of some good data and a pause with Syrian bad news. A few Asian markets traded higher and Europe has opened a bit higher. US and Canadian markets are closed today:
E/J: this has closed off with the ‘risk on’ bias evident today:
E/U: has bounced off the 1.32 support 
A/U: a lot of traders will be looking to short the A/U back at the 0.90 level. A TS signal is building though:
A/J: similar here…many will look to short on a pullback to 89:
E/A: has now pulled back to the daily trend line:
Kiwi: price is back above the weekly 200 EMA S/R level:
U/J: this has had a triangle break and a TS signal is forming up:

Check out the U/J monthly Ichimoku chart: a little exciting here if technical analysis is your thing!

Cable: this is still looking like a bull break out:

Silver: a bullish breakout here too:

Gold: no breakout here though just yet:

Monday 2nd Sept (11.50 am)
A/U: this is trading higher so far today on the back of some positive Chinese and AUD data:

G/U: this is the most excited the Cable has been in some days. Maybe that ‘bullish descending wedge’ was on the money!

BTW: I have updated my Aussie Stocks page.