Trading Week 03/06/13

Friday 7th June (8 pm)

Not a lot happening ahead of NFP.

Friday 7th June (5.45 pm)
I’m still on the lookout for Ichimoku Alignment.

Stocks: I have updated my Stocks:June page again.

Friday 7th June (2.15 pm)

GBP/AUD: How frustrating. This pair has moved almost 600 pips since I noted the new TS signal!

Friday 7th June (1.50 pm)

A/J: this has been one interesting move: 5 months to move up from the triangle breakout and just 1 month and 1 week to fall more than half way back down! The monthly chart shows how price is now at major support at just above 0.91. Price is currently negotiating the weekly 55 EMA (blue line on monthly chart). The next major support seems to be down at the 0.89 area. The 0.89 area is also near the 61.8% fib retrace level of the most recent swing high from the breakout swing low.
A/J monthly

A/J weekly

A/J daily

A/J 4 hr

Friday 7th June (10.15 am)
S&P500 Ichimoku:

The daily chart has updated and has now given a bearish Tenkan/Kijun cross. These are weak signals when they appear above the Ichimoku Cloud though. A similar signal was noted back in April but this was soon followed through with a bullish cross. 

There is still a trading channel evident on the index and price has yet to break the daily support trend line. A breach of this would be quite bearish. Price has bounced off the 1,600 level and it remains to be seen whether this previous resistance level will be respected and form a new support base: 

I’ll check it again after NFP.

Friday 7th June (6.55 am)

The USD was pummeled overnight after Super Mario appeared  a little less dovish and fears that US employment may not be as strong as hoped. Talk actually might turn to increasing US stimulus rather than tapering! FX Live posted a good summary on the USD.

USDX: this has tumbled back down to the previous S/R level of 81.70. 

The USDX weekly chart shows how significant this 81.70 level has been:

EURX:

Ichimoku Alignment: we are very close to a situation of having Ichimoku alignment. The EURX 4 hr chart has yet to push through above its Cloud though. Many of you will know that I have been waiting for this alignment for some months now so, I’ll be keen to see if this indeed evolves. Extended trending periods have been typical of previous periods of alignment:

USDX daily Ichimoku: below the Cloud

USDX 4hr Ichimoku: below the Cloud

EURX daily Ichimoku: above the Cloud

EURX daily Ichimoku: still just below the Cloud

S&P500: this pattern is looking more ‘Bull Flag’ like to me at the moment.

S&P500 daily Ichimoku: still no bearish signal here:

There were fantastic moves overnight during the US session. This continues the pattern of better trading from the 30 min charts during the US session whilst there is Ichimoku divergence. :
E/U: the 30 min chart gave a great trade worth 150 pips and this pair is now above its daily Ichimoku Cloud:
E/U: 30 min

E/U daily Ichimoku

E/U 4 hr:

Cable: It, too, gave a great 30 min trade worth 230 pips but this started during the European session and then continued. This pair has now also closed above its daily Ichimoku Cloud:
Cable 30 min:

Cable Ichimoku: trading above the Cloud now:

Cable 4hr

Gold: is trying for a bullish break and has made the right moves so far. 

A/U: is back above the key 0.96 now and any continued USD weakness might help this and Gold: 

Kiwi: ditto here


E/J: it looks like I would have been better sticking to the bearish descending triangle that I had in earlier: 

U/J: very bearish:

AUD/NZD: this has tested the monthly channel trend line and bounced back up:

GBP/AUD: stalled a bit as the AUD recovers somewhat. I’m annoyed that I didn’t take this given I posted about it before the channel break!

NFP is released tonight and this could swing things either way. 

Thursday 6th June (6.30 pm)

E/J: I’ve been ignoring the yen pairs as they’ve been so choppy BUT is that a bullish descending wedge brewing on the E/J?
Euro pairs: there are red flag EUR items tonight. Be careful. 

Gold: looking interesting too. This would be helped along by any continued slide with the USD:

Thursday 6th June (5.55 pm)

Things are sure getting interesting. The USDX is now trading just above the Ichimoku Cloud on the daily chart. A fall through the Cloud would put the indices into a ‘risk on’ alignment. Such periods in the past were marked by long trending periods on many of the currency pairs. There is still a bit of work to do and price may well bounce from here but, I’m a watchin’ it!

Thursday 6th June (4.30 pm)
Watching these two daily charts….very closely!
E/U:

G/U:


Stocks: I have loaded a new Stocks: June page here.

Thursday 6th June (4.20 pm)

EURX: The 108.5 is proving hard to shake off, either up or down:

USDX: is starting to look a bit weak again: 
Stocks: I have loaded a new Stocks: June page here. 

Thursday 6th June (2.30 pm)

GBP/AUD: I’m rather annoyed as this signal and trade I flagged yesterday morning has since moved on to give 450 pips!
Stocks: I have loaded a new Stocks: June page here. 

Thursday 6th June (6.50 am)

Some mixed data has renewed fears of Fed tapering. This has resulted in the USD slipping a bit and a sell off across stocks.
USDX 4hr: slipping a bit further. NFP still looming though this week:

EURX: this is slipping too and just holding about some recent support trend line: 

USDX daily Ichimoku: price is hovering above the thin Cloud:

EURX: still below the 108.5 but above the daily Cloud: 

S&P500: there has been a flag break down BUT the daily support trend line is still intact for the time being. I still think the 1,600 level, at a minimum, needs to be tested: 

S&P500 Ichimoku: no concrete bearish signal here yet either:

Gold: looks ready to pounce in case the USD does tumble: 
GBP/AUD: this signal has now delivered 300 pips!

AUD/NZD: just in profit BUT choppy

TS signals: I look to a confluence of indicator alignment within a set number of candles. Lately, signals have formed up but have taken too many candles to do so. This has been the case lately. Some pairs have had the indicators align but it has taken too long.
E/U: nothing here though:

E/J: bear triangle break down but no clear signal yet

A/U: a signal formed but took too long. Be wary with AUD trade balance data and NFP

A/J: ditto here

G/U: signal here but too long to form up as well 

Kiwi: bear triangle break down but no signal yet:

 U/J: chopping downwards in a channel still:

Wednesday 5th June (9.30 pm)

S&P500 weekly: I’m expecting the 1,600 level to be tested, as a minimum:

Wednesday 5th June (9.10 pm)
EURX: this is starting to look a bit weak:

A/U: back below the 0.96. I want to see where the daily candle closes.

E/J: a descending triangle break looming?

Kiwi: testing the 0.80 level:

AUD/NZD: still pulling back. It might be just testing the channel breakout:

GBP/AUD: up 190 pips now

S&P500 30 min: looking weak again:


S&P500 daily: watching a bunch of trend lines here:

Wednesday 5th June (7.30 pm)

EURX: this is back to struggling at the 108.5 level. You never know, the indices could flip back to a ‘risk off’ alignment. I think NFP might be the determinant here!
Interestingly, no new short signal on the A/U or A/J!

Wednesday 5th June (6.30 pm)

GBP/AUD: positive GBP data has sent this pair soaring just now. The TS signal is up 170 pips!

Wednesday 5th June (4.15 pm)

It looks like the indices might be making another attempt to head towards some alignment. The USDX is only just trading above the Daily Cloud now and the Cloud below current price is rather thin. This suggests minimal support. The EURX is still above the daily Cloud. Both of the 4hr charts are already aligned for ‘risk on’, so, it is only the USDX daily chart that is out of alignment.
USDX

EURX

S&P500: I would expect that the breakout would be a bullish one if, indeed, the indices do manage to slot into any ‘risk on’ alignment:

Gold: looks to be setting up for something on the 4hr chart. A triangle has appeared:

GBP/AUD: The TS signal is in profit and this pair is attempting a trend line break:

AUD/NZD: this signal is in profit too but I’d have stop to entry ASAP with the previous trend line looming.

Wednesday 5th June (3 pm)

AUD/NZD: I have just had a new signal to short here:
No other new signals. I really think it would be safer to wait until after the AUD Trade Balance  data that is due out tomorrow.

Wednesday 5th June (11.30 am)

GBP/AUD further update: I received a TS BUY signal on my 11 am candle. Price is nudging that upper trend line of the trading channel though. Also, A/U is at major support in the 0.96 level. There is more red flag data out tomorrow with AUD Trade Balance. It might be safer to see that release:

Wednesday 5th June (10.15 am)

GBP/AUD: There is a bit of AUD data out today that might impact the currency. The RBA is keen to see the AUD trading at these levels or lower. This fact, and the strength of the GBP got me looking again at the GBP/AUD. This cross is at an interesting juncture for sure. This pair has essentially been in a down trend since 2002, with a bit of a spike in 2008. It has been trading in a broad, gently descending channel on the weekly chart since 2011. It is now trading back up at the top of this range and has slowed pace just below the potential breakout level. There was very encouraging GBP data out yesterday and any further good news here, along with any AUD weak data, could be the catalyst to help this cross pair break out and up from the trading channel. There is an extra support trend line evident on the daily chart and price is now wedged between this and the upper trend line of the trading channel. This pair is already trading above the Ichimoku Cloud on the daily and 4hr chart and recently broken above the weekly Cloud. Any sustained break out and up of price from this channel would then prove to be an inflection point for the overall trend and could mark the beginning of a possible new bull move here. A pair to watch for sure!
G/A monthly

G/A weekly

G/A daily

G/A 4hr

G/A weekly Ichimoku

Wednesday 5th June (6.40 am)

Stocks closed lower in the last US session on the back of some positive US trade balance data that got traders worrying again about the tapering off of US easing. Having noted that, the USD hasn’t soared and the EURX hasn’t tumbled:
USDX

EURX

Stocks: The S&P500 is moving towards a 7/21 EMA cross for sure BUT it is still above the daily support trend line. This could be a new bearish trend starting or it could also be just a pause before the next bull leg of this current move: 

The S&P500 whilst stalling has not given any new signals just yet on the Ichimoku chart either. Price is still above the Cloud and there hasn’t been any bearish Tenkan/Kijun cross just yet. I’m still getting e-mails saying the trading sky is about to fall in. Well, they may well happen BUT I don’t have any signs of this just yet, just the normal ebb and flow of market movement.

I note also that the risk currencies are all holding up for the time being too.
E/U: is still above 1.3

G/U; edging upwards

A/U: above 0.96

Kiwi: above the 0.80 level, although only just.

So, the best we can note is that we are still a state of flux. Whereas currencies have been like this for a while, stocks have now joined this choppy party. That, to me, is a good thing. This might sound weird but I’m relieved to see that stocks and currencies now seem to be aligned, albeit they’re aligned in their choppiness!
What I’m watching:
E/U and G/U Ichimoku charts: Both of these pairs are trading above their 4hr Clouds and both are currently trying to break up and out from their daily Clouds. They may not manage to do so and this could then prove to be resistance that turns them BUT I’m watching in case they do break out as this would be a bullish signal. I’d then look for a TS signal to confirm any entry.
E/U daily Ichimoku

G/U daily Ichimoku


Tuesday 4th June (9.10 pm)

Still seeing USD weakness and Euro strength. This might prove to be a good night for SPY trades:

Tuesday 4th June (6.20 pm)

Seeing some Euro strength:



Tuesday 4th June (5.45 pm)

The Ichimoku charts are still divergent and so the 4hr charts are still very choppy. Both the USDX and EURX are trading above their daily Clouds. Safer trading is to be had off 30 min charts during the US session during these periods.
USDX

EURX

E/A: this signal has now closed for loss of -100 too:
A/U: this has too:

Tuesday 4th June (2.25 pm)

Not a whole lot happening. I’m waiting on RBA rate decision.

Tuesday 4th June (7 am)

The USD has continued to tumble overnight on the back of some weak USD data and is now back down at another old stomping ground….the 61.8% fib level of 82.59.

EURX Cloud: The EURX is trading above the Cloud on the daily chart.

USDX Cloud: the USDX is getting down close to the daily Cloud and note how the Cloud is thinning and, thus, so too is support:

S&P500: stocks bounced on the falling USD 

E/U: no signal yet but this has closed above a bear trend line. the Ichimoku charts look bullish here too:

E/U Daily Cloud: Price is almost out of the Cloud

E/U 4hr Cloud: price is out of the Cloud:

Cable: no TS signal here yet but, like the E/U, the Ichimoku charts are bullish: 

 Cable daily Ichimoku:

Cable: 4hr Ichimoku:

A/U : This has given a new TS signal BUT I would wait until later today and the RBA interest rate release. A rate reduction might see this fall again:

A/U 4hr Ichimoku: this is back above the 4hr Cloud and looking bullish again:

Kiwi: this signal has now closed for a loss of 100 pips

E/A: this has given a new signal on my 3 am candle:

U/J: this ended up as a bearish breakout!


E/J: a bearish break BUT no TS signal yet:

Monday 3rd June (7.40 pm)

G/U: I’m close to getting a LONG signal on this pair on the 4hr charts. I do note also that, like the E/U discussed below, this pair has made a bullish move above the 4hr Cloud but it is still in the Cloud on the daily chart. A close and hold above the daily Cloud would be quite bullish.

Monday 3rd June (12.45 pm)

A/U: I’ve been checking out the Ichimoku charts for the A/U. Price is still well below the daily Cloud. The 4hr Cloud is a little different though and, any new bullish momentum will be seen on the 4hr charts first. There has actually been a weak, bullish signal on the A/U 4hr Ichimoku chart by way of a bullish Tenkan/Kijun cross below the 4hr Cloud. (see arrow on extreme right of chart). This is the first such cross in over 5 weeks. The last such weak, bullish signal came though in April. (see arrow to extreme left of chart). The last cross didn’t ever result in price getting back up through the Cloud though so, the signal never fully evolved. So, now, what I’m watching for is any continuation with this bullish move that might result in price moving up through the 4hr Cloud. I’ll be watching for this along with any new 4hr TS signal. Again, confluence is the aim of the game here:
I am not predicting that the bullish move will evolve. I am simply stating the signals that I am looking for with any continued bullish momentum. The 0.96 remains the key though and, if the RBA cut interest rates again tomorrow, this could send the A/U tumbling again.

Monday 3rd June (11.30 am)

A/U: some ok and some positive AUD data seems to be lifting this pair. There is some more AUD specific data due out later today and, also, throughout the week. It might be a busy week for this pair:

We are seeing some USD weakness in the Asian session:
USDX: trading a bit lower and still below the key 84 level:

EURX: still holding above the 108.5 level. Note the relaxed upper triangle trend line:

E/U: I don’t have any new signal here yet. The Ichimoku charts are most interesting here though. There has been a bullish break up on the 4hr chart. Price is currently within the Cloud on the daily chart. Any close and hold here out of the daily Cloud would be quite a bullish signal indeed. I’m on the lookout for new TS signal that coincides with bullish moves on the 4hr and daily Ichimoku chart. That’s real confluence for you:

Monday 3rd June (7.30 am)

A/U: I see this has opened back above the key 0.96 level. I also still don’t have a SELL signal. It is only early though and liquidity is low:
Today is the first trading day of the month. These days are often more bullish for ‘risk on’ than not. Some traders use a monthly algorithm where they simply trade long on this day each month on the S&P500 (futures index). The theory is that with appropriate risk management they get more trades right than wrong hence, they come out in front. Since hearing this I have noted how this does often seem to be the case. I’ll be keen to see how this first day of month evolves.