Trading Week 04/03/13

Saturday 9th (6.45 am)
The US jobs report was very positive with the unemployment rate coming in much lower than expected. This seems to have re-kindled thoughts of an end of monetary easing and, thus, has boosted the USD. There was a also a downgrade of Italy helping to stem the support for Euro.

The USDX has popped above the 61.8% fib resistance level:

The EURX, after breaking out from the smaller flag pattern, is still contained by the larger flag pattern.


There is red flag data out of China today at 12.30 which might help to shape the outlook for next week.

I may not post further blog updates until Sunday. I am spending much of the day working with a friend on my new web site.

Friday 8th (9 pm)
The indices are quiet ahead of NFP:

The E/J signal is up 200 pips!

I have bought some XLF Call Options June $19 @ $0.29 cents. I missed getting in on the $17 Calls. I’ve had a lot happening here recently..no excuses….just facts:

My other directional Calls are all doing well and all have good profit locked in. My DELL Options are currently up 350%!

The G/U signal has gone nowhere ….slowly. I’m cutting it….loss = 40 pips.
Friday 8th (5.40 pm)
I’m waiting until after NFP but I’m watching the U/J 95, A/J 97, E/J 125 levels. These are major levels and, even if they’re passed, I would not be surprised to see them re-tested.

At the moment we have both indices above their daily and 4hr Ichimoku Cloud. I want a clear new trend.

Friday 8th (11.30 am)
U/J: What about a run to 103 IF we get a close and hold above the 95 level?

EUR/GBP: I missed this long signal the other day. I’m wondering if this pair is gearing up for another go at a monthly channel breakout? It tried a few weeks ago and failed. Second time lucky?

We’ve had a bit of sickness and hospital stays in our house this week so it has been a bit hard to focus. We’ve had chart divergence though so I’m not too bothered. I’m more annoyed about missing some stock Option trades. Took my eye off the ball there a bit. I have to go out for a few hours again now.

Friday 8th (9.30 am)
The A/J and U/J have also broken out of their bull flag patterns. Both gave signals on the 4hr charts earlier that I missed.
U/J daily: this pair has broken up from its flag but is now sitting under major S/R in the 95 level. I think it would be safer to wait until after NFP then if it breaks above the 95 level, try and enter then:

U/J 4hr

A/J daily: ditto for this pair. Then, try to enter at 97

A/J 4 hr

Friday 8th (6.45 am)
No bad news overnight has added accelearant to the ‘risk on’ moves with the indices:
The USDX has turned down from the 61.8% fib level:

The EURX has broken and held out of the smaller of the bull flag patterns:

The Cloud supported price on the daily EURX:

We now have the EURX 4hr chart aligned for ‘risk on’ too:

The USDX 4hr Cloud chart is still above the Cloud for now but doesn’t have to move too far to be below the Cloud and aligned for ‘risk on’:

The USDX daily Cloud has some way to go yet though:

 Stocks are up but more cautious than the Euro pairs:

The E/J signal took off and is now up 170 pips:

The E/J has now broken out and up from the Bull Flag I had on the daily chart:

This E/J move could have been played off 30 min charts during the US session. Something that is quite typical during these divergent markets:

The E/U gave a LONG TS signal after my 5am candle:

I’ll be more comfortable once the E/U breaks up the downward daily trend line though:

The EUR/GBP is up too. It gave a signal but I missed it. It has been a bit messy lately though:

So, the Euro pairs partied hard last night. There is NFP data out over the next 24 hrs and this could really kick things along.

I’m waiting to trade until after NFP. Then, if this moves things along towards more ‘risk on’ I am looking for:

  • a daily trend line break on the E/U to take the LONG momentum
  • a break above the 125 on the E/J to take the LONG momentum
  • alignment of my Cloud Index charts to buy Call options on some of the stocks I’m stalking.

Thursday 7th (9.15 pm)
The indices are still tracking in ‘risk on’ mode but I want to see some follow through:

The signal on the E/U closed off for -60. The G/U is still open but down.

I’ve had a new signal on the E/J:

There is major GBP and EUR news out later.

Thursday 6th (7.15 pm)
Starting to see some ‘risk on’ with the EURX trying for a breakout:

For the EURX daily Cloud, in horse racing terms, this is what you would call ‘leaving your run a bit late’:

The point to note here is that because the indices have chopped sideways for so long then the other Cloud charts have shifted as well. The EURX 4hr chart would not have to rally much to see this switch back to a ‘risk on’ alignment too, as with the EURX.

Similarly, the USDX 4hr chart would not have to fall much before flipping back to ‘risk on’ too!

Interesting times…..flat trends now but things could go either way, quite quickly, from here.

Thursday 6th (5.50 pm)
Not much has changed. The E/U is at 1.3 and the G/U at 1.5. Key levels on both.

Thursday 6th (3 pm)
The USDX is stumbling at the 82.59 level. This is a major level as it represents the 61.8% retrace from the last major swing high back in mid 2010:

The EURX is still chopping sideways:

The EURX is running out of room on the daily Cloud chart. It has to either bounce or enter the Cloud:

I’m not shorting the E/U until the EURX breaks below the weekly 200 EMA.

There is major news tonight that will impact the Euro and the GBP. IMHO…..I think you’d be crazy to trade these before this news is released.

Thursday 6th (11.40 am)
I have been out at hospital.

The USDX is butting up against the next resistance level of 82.59

Anyway…I have new signals to short the E/U and G/U. There is an ECB release later today and also GBP interest rates. I’ve waited this long so I’m going to wait until after those releases.

It is ‘do or die’ time soon for the EURX on the daily chart:

Thursday 6th (8 am)
An interesting view on the state of the USD. From Adam Button @ FX Live:

http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2013/03/06/why-the-us-dollar-will-continue-to-go-higher/comment-page-1/#comment-535416

Thursday 6th (6.45 am)

The USDX has broken out and up from its flag but the EURX is still trapped within its flag:

The Cloud still seems to be giving some support to the EURX:
Strangely, as things tend to go with divergence, the rally in the USD has tracked along side a continued up trend with stocks:
The E/U is trying to form a SHORT and is currently below the 1.3 level. I’ll keep an eye on it.
Swissie: Well, after saying I wasn’t going to track the Swissie as closely…it has got back at me. It gave a clear TS signal last week that stretched 120 pips. It has given a new signal now after my 5am candle:

There were, as suspected, some good 30 min chart trades during London and the US session:

G/U: The cable often moves in the London session

U/J

E/U


Wednesday 6th (9 pm) Another great SPY trade opportunity worth 58% ROIC

The indices are both still tracking within their respective flag patterns:

The EURX is running out of room on the daily Cloud chart: 
The G/U signal closed off at -80.

The Kiwi has given up to 50 but I’d have stop to b/e here at least:

The pattern of choppy 4hr chart trading during divergence continues. That consistency is some comfort. It will be interesting to see if the 30 min charts during the US session give any trades.

I really do suspect that this sideways stuff might continue until NFP Friday!

Wednesday 6th (6 pm) Another great SPY trade opportunity worth 58% ROIC

I suspect that this sideways stuff might continue until NFP Friday!

Wednesday 6th (5 pm) Another great SPY trade opportunity worth 58% ROIC

No new TS signals.

Wednesday 6th (4.30 pm) Another great SPY trade opportunity worth 58% ROIC

I have been a bit annoyed about missing some breakouts on a few stocks. YHOO was one I was stalking but it got away without me. Anyway, I have charted about 30 other US stocks and a number of Aussie stocks too that are in charting breakout patterns. The US stocks are from the Dividend ‘Champion’ and ‘Challenger’ watch lists. There are too many to chart in a post and I’m at my ‘page’ limit for this blog site! I’d be better to video my commentary on these. Something I’m looking to do with the new site.

Wednesday 6th (11.20 am) Another great SPY trade opportunity worth 58% ROIC

There isn’t too much happening today so I thought I’d re-cap market matters a little.
USD index: I have been tracking a bearish H&S pattern on the USD index for many months now. This bearish pattern suggests a ‘risk on’ bias and higher stocks prices. This pattern is still valid. I posted over the w/e that I thought a break and hold above the 82.59 area might void this pattern. This has not evolved as yet:

EURX weekly: The print of the weekly Euro dollar index chart complements the USD index chart quite nicely. There has been a bullish ‘inverse H&S’ pattern in play here for many weeks now and this has seen ‘risk on’ sentiment. The price rise here had been quite rapid though and actually entered into the ‘parabolic’ sphere. Such a rise was never going to be sustainable and the monthly 200 EMA created a road block that was sufficient enough to give the index some pause. 


S&P500 weekly:The issue for me is that I don’t think the market pause has been significant enough. Stocks have paused a little but they have hardly pull backed:


S&P500 monthly: I have posted this chart before discussing the appearance of the approaching  triple top. The previous market highs, in 2000 and 2007, were periods where the bullish trend was waning (ADX: DMI green line declining) and the overall trend was waning (ADX: black line declining). The set up on the ADX now though looks quite different. The bullish trend (ADX: green line) looks to be ticking upwards and the ADX momentum line (ADX: black line) also looks to be just starting to build momentum.


I’m not making predictions here I’m just noting the chart patterns. I consider the charts are suggesting further bullish moves though. It is just that I thought we might have had more of a pull back before this next assault. There just isn’t enough bad news around at the moment creating sufficient fear for a sell off and, any bad news seems to gather comfort from the knowledge that there is always QEternity. In fact, to me, the ‘fear’ seems to be traders worrying about getting left behind!

Wednesday 6th (9.20 am) Another great SPY trade opportunity worth 58% ROIC

The indices are still chopping sideways.

So, it’s no surprise that there are no new TS signals on 4hr charts.

Wednesday 6th (6.30 am) Another great SPY trade opportunity worth 58% ROIC

It has been another session of ‘risk on’ with stocks but not with currencies. The USDX and EURX both continue to chop sideways with neither making a clear break just yet:

The EURX daily chart is still in limbo here too:

The G/U signal is down: 

The Kiwi signal is up and this has now broken out and up through the daily bear trend line: 

The E/U is not moving much and staying near the safety of the 1.3 level: 

The A/U is heading for the daily trend line: 

The usual pattern of good 30 min trades for the S&P500 during US session in these choppy divergent markets has continued though. A signal came through when the S&P500 was at $1,531:
Thus, I would look to buy the March 27 $153 Call Option. This opened at $1.47 and, at the time of this write up, had risen to $2.33. That is an increase of $0.86 cents.

The ROIC = ( $0.86/ $1.47) x 100 = 58%

Tuesday 5th (9 pm)

The EURX hasn’t moved much:
The USDX has pulled back a bit though: 
The Cable gave a new signal after the good data:

The Kiwi signal hasn’t done much and I said I’d be wanting a trend line break here first anyway: 
I thought I might have had new signals on the E/U and A/U but they haven’t evolved as yet. This divergence is very consistent…I’ll give it that! Choppy 4hr charts! 
There is US red flag data out overnight so that might help for some trading off the 30 min charts during the US session. It won’t help me though….I’ll be asleep!

I’m hoping this chart will have evolved by morning. Up …down….don’t care….just EVOLVE!

Tuesday 5th (7.15 pm)

Something has to give soon……surely!

Tuesday 5th (6 pm)

This is a another ‘My Fair Lady’ moment here with the EURX…….“C’mon Dover….move yer bloomin’ arse”!   http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y3ywa-9Cu4M

Tuesday 5th (5.30 pm)

Is this the end of the so called pull back for ‘risk appetite’? I’d thought we’d get more than this. The parabolic rise of the Euro, a measure of ‘risk’ of late, has stalled and is reverting back to the mean, albeit slowly. Is this it though?

Stocks have certainly paused a bit at their new highs BUT this has hardly been a ‘pull back’ for them. I thought we’d see more of a pull back here too: 
I’m keeping an open mind about which way things could swing from here. I just wish it would get going…one way or the other! I’m wondering if the NFP jobs report will kick start a new trend?

Tuesday 5th (5 pm)

The Kiwi has given a new signal but I’m still wary of trading ‘risk on’ with the current divergence. I would be happier if price could break the bear trend line first:

The A/U is TRYING to form a signal too. I’d prefer to see the bear trend line broken here too though:

Tuesday 5th (2.28 pm)

AUD rate decision out in a min…


Tuesday 5th (1.20 pm)

No new TS signals.
I want a clear break on the indices. The USDX is hovering near the 82.59 level and the EURX is clinging on to the weekly 200 EMA:

Tuesday 5th (10 am)

I’m happier now. The E/U has had a pullback allowing minor EMAs to cross. So, if there is a switch to ‘risk off’ I will be able to get a new TS signal:

Tuesday 5th (9.45 am)

FX has been choppy but look at some of my recent stock picks and how they have fared!
TIF

ADBE

KBH

KBE

BTW: I have updated my Aussie Stocks page.


Tuesday 5th (9 am)

No new TS signals.
Check out the A/U daily candle! A hold in Interest Rates could send this pair up! AUD Rate news out at 2.30 pm.
BTW: I have updated my Aussie Stocks page.

Tuesday 5th (6.45 am)

The markets continue to be choppy with risk appetite picking up during the US session.
The USDX has failed to break above the next S/R level of 82.59 and the EURX has yet to close below the weekly 200 EMA:

The EURX daily Cloud is still supporting price:

The E/U will probably hold above the 1.3 level for the daily close:

The A/U on the daily might be printing a reversal style ‘pin bar’ candle. Or, is it just re-testing the major breakout level of 1.2 before tumbling again: 

The Cable is holding above the 1.5 level:

Stocks are trading up:

The E/A signal reversed for -80
These FX markets are still hard to trade off 4 hr charts so I’ll continue to wait for a clear trend to emerge.
BTW: My stock and Option picks are powering along…Yahoo, Adobe, KBH, Tiffany etc. I’ll update these charts later. 

Monday 4th (8.50 pm)

There has been some more data from GBP and EUR but this has been poor so we are seeing ‘risk off’ creep in:
The weekly 200 EMA is supporting price on the EURX for now but I’m not sure how long this can/will hold: 

Monday 4th (7.30 pm)

Some positive Spanish employment data has helped to support the Euro:

Monday 4th (6 pm)

A tad frustrating here. Key levels are being broken across many pairs BUT they are not coinciding with new TS signals. Hmmm. I’m trying to be patient after my poor efforts here last week though.

I keep referring back to this EURX Cloud chart too:

There is still some work to be done here before price either rejects or breaches the Cloud so, there might be new opportunities in store for new TS signals.

Monday 4th (5.15 pm)

I have had a TS signal on the E/A. This pair has made a significant move already today though:
I might wait to see if it breaks the monthly pivot and trend channel first.

Monday 4th (12 pm)

Not too much to report just yet. My index charts are online and I’m watching the EURX daily Ichimoku chart to see if the Cloud (Kumo) will offer support :
BTW: I have updated my Stocks+ Triangles page with some Gold stocks I’m stalking.

Monday 4th (9 am)

My charts have just come on-line and, interestingly, there are no gaps. I thought there might have been after the sequester and poor w/e data from China. There is red flag AUD data out in a few hours at 11.30 am local time.

2 thoughts on “Trading Week 04/03/13

  1. All ok thanks Viv. So many weird market signals at the moment: USD up.. stocks up, Gold flat, VIX (fear) down….it’s a sign. What of? Not quite sure…..but….I’m waiting for a clear new trend with the currencies.

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