Trading Week 08/04/13

Saturday 13th April (7 am)

The EURX has pulled back a bit:
There were pull backs on many pairs BUT no trend signals on the 4hr charts with these reversals. 
It wasn’t hard to find some good 30 min chart trend trades last night. The metals did not disappoint there at all! Silver fell over $1.40:

Gold fell over $65 and has now broken through key support of $1,525


Friday April 12th (7.30 pm)

G/U: has closed off for -40
Kiwi and A/U have closed off now too.
NB: I can’t seem to load any charts at the moment!

Friday April 12th (6.25 pm)

There is a lot of USD red flag data due out in the US session and I think that these will drive the momentum. It is not clear how this will impact though. Positive news might be met with a USD rally as thoughts turn to an earlier end to US monetary easing. Alternatively, it could prompt some  broader ‘risk on’ appetite. We will have to wait and see.

Friday April 12th (4.50 pm)

EURX: The EURX has worked very hard this week. It has broken out and up from  the Bull Flag pattern and from the Daily Cloud:

It is stumbling now a bit at the next S/R barrier of the 108.5 level. The significance of this level can be best seen on the weekly chart (below). 
I’m thinking the EURX might balk here a bit and this might then give the USDX time to head down a bit further so as to allow all the charts to align for ‘risk on’. I’m not predicting this at all, but I am wishing for it! 
The charts have been choppy for over 2 months now and, if they do align for ‘risk on’ then, we might be in for some big trends. The saying goes that ‘the best trends come out of choppy markets’. Well, we’ve had hugely choppy markets for ages so, I’m hoping the next trends are just as big!!

Friday April 12th (2.40 pm)

EURX: The EURX has closed up and out of the Ichimoku Cloud on the daily chart:
That means that 3 of the 4 charts are now aligned for ‘risk on’. The odd chart out is the USDX daily chart. It is not too far above the daily Cloud BUT the Cloud is quite thick and this means it will offer a fair amount of support:
As it stands now though, we still have Cloud divergence and that usually means better trading off the 30 min charts during the US session. We’ll see if that hold for tonight. 
My son is on school holidays and he only has 11 more school terms left. I’m heading to a US friendly trading zone then!!!!
I still don’t have a TS signal on the 4hr chart of  E/U. 
I’m still keeping a very open mind about trend direction.

I’m a bit annoyed. I posted this stock the other day and it has rallied about $3 since then. This would have been an opportunity to make almost 100% return on a Call Option.

Friday April 12th (5.45 am)

Some upbeat US employment data has helped to buoy stocks but it has also given the USD a bit of a boost. The EURX looks like it will close out and up from the Cloud but the USDX is still holding up, at the moment, above a daily support trend line. I have relaxed this trend line a bit this week but price always seems to punch through it and, then, retrace to close within:
EURX: daily Cloud 
USDX daily 

USDX 4hr

USDX weekly: this bearish pattern looks like it might evolve: 

A/U: has yielded up to 130 pips

Kiwi: has yielded up to 240 pips:

Cable: has given a new TS signal:
I have not had a signal on the E/U yet though.

Thursday April 11th (9.50 pm)

I mentioned that I’m watching for the EURX to see if it can close out of the Cloud. I’m also watching the USDX. It does not have too far to fall to be back below the daily Cloud and, if this happens, then we would have all the charts aligned for ‘risk on’. The last time this happened the moves went for hundreds of pips! So, I’m a watching!

Thursday April 11th (9.30 pm)

EURX: This is pushing up out of the Cloud. I need to see it close out of the Cloud tomorrow though:

E/U: no TS signal yet on the 4hr but I suspect the 11pm candle may deliver on. There was a signal yesterday on the daily candle close though:

Thursday April 11th (4.30 pm)

EURX: I’m still waiting to see if the daily candle closes outside the Cloud:

E/U: This now has the potential of producing a new 4hr TS signal if, indeed, there is any bullish close on the EURX.Yeah!

Thursday April 11th (9 am)

My EURX index chart has just had a daily candle close. Very indecisive as the candle closed right on top of the upper edge of the Ichimoku Cloud. So, technically, it has not closed out of the Cloud yet. Frustrating! In fact, although it closed as a bullish green candle it actually closed as a ‘shooting star’ or ‘pin bar reversal’ style candle. So, I will definitely be waiting for further clues.

Thursday April 11th (6.15 am)

The USDX has retraced a bit and I’m not sure if the EURX will close out of the daily Cloud:

The 108.5 level might be spooking the EURX
The A/U signal has delivered up to 100 pips:

The E/G signal has closed for no gain:

The Kiwi has gone on to give 140 pips but this signal came off the 30 min chart:

These choppy divergent markets continue to give better trading opportunities off the 30 min charts during the US session. Gold and the S&P500 were clear examples last night. I think Gold is suffering from a flow of money into dividend paying equities:
S&P500: new highs. I am noting again though that the stocks have rallied along with the USD during this latest US session. I am still open to this being the beginning of a new paradigm BUT there is no new and definite trend being forged here just yet.

Gold: fell over $24. I think it might be headed for the $1,525 again:

E/U: The good thing here is that the E/U has pulled back on the 4hr chart and this might allow another 4hr signal to set up if the the EURX can continue any bullish move:

Wednesday April 10th (8 pm)

EURX: I’m still waiting to see where this daily candle closes:

Not much by way of scheduled news tonight but be careful with FOMC minutes.

Wednesday April 10th (5 pm)
EURX: things are starting to happen!

Wednesday April 10th (3.30 pm)

EURX: still in the Cloud:

A/U: The A/U is sitting just under a major S/R level in the 1.05 value. This region also happens to be in the vicinity of a major monthly chart trend line that, to me, looks a bit ‘bull flag’ like. I think the A/U would get a boost from any upward breakout of the EURX:
A/U monthly

A/U weekly 

A/U daily 

A/U 4hr: this trade is up 60 or so pips:

Wednesday April 10th (1 pm)

USDX weekly: I just noticed a bearish ‘Dark Cloud Cover’ pattern forming up on the weekly chart of the USDX. It will need this week’s candle close to confirm this though:

BTW: A few more stocks/ETFs have crept into my watch list for April. They are on my Stocks: April page.

Wednesday April 10th (12 pm)
A few more stocks/ETFs have crept into my watch list for April. They are on my Stocks: April page.

Wednesday April 10th (11.25 am)

The currency pairs must be waiting for the EURX to move too. Not much happening!

Wednesday April 10th (9.30 am)

Ok, so the USDX has closed below the daily trend line:

Now, for the next bit, I’m just waiting on the EURX to get up and out of the Cloud, if it can:
This song just came to mind! You’ll pick up on the phrase within that I mean!

Wednesday April 10th (7.10 am)

The EURX is sitting just under a major support and resistance level now in the 108.5 level. This level has come up a lot before. Look across the weekly chart below and you can see the number of hits this level has had:

I have also drawn in this 108.5 level onto the Ichimoku chart of the Euro index chart and enlarged it a bit. You can see that this major 108.5 level is just above, but in the vicinity, of the edge of the Ichimoku Cloud. These resistance levels may prove to be too much for the EURX and there may well be a turn back to ‘risk off’. The recent peak in stocks, and a likelihood of some pull back there, might fit in with exact scenario. A breach of these levels though and, like I said yesterday, I think it will be ‘hold on to your hat stuff’ with ‘risk on’. I have no idea which way the ‘risk appetite’ pendulum will swing BUT I’m watching these levels to give me some guidance. 

The E/U 4hr chart just closed with a reversal style pin bar

The E/U daily chart has given a weak signal but I’m going to wait for a clear sign on the EURX index chart first.

Wednesday April 10th (6 am)

The USDX is looking like it might close below the daily support trend line.

The EURX looks like it might hold out from its bull flag:

The EURX has yet to close out from its Cloud though and this is keeping me cautious: 

The E/G signal has done little: 

The A/U signal was a bit better: 
The Kiwi has been the quiet achiever though. It has broken out and up from its major monthly pattern bull flag. This move didn’t give a clean signal off the 4hr chart:

The Kiwi did give a signal off the 1hr and 30 min charts though during yesterdays London session: 
Stocks are up but my feed to my MT4 charts doesn’t seem to be working. I don’t have any data after the Asian session from yesterday:

Tuesday 9th (7.30 pm)

I’m feeling a bit fazed out tonight so not trading.
I did just get a signal on the A/U though:

Tuesday 9th (5.30 pm)
I’m back from hospital but tired.

EURX: still hasn’t emerged from the Cloud so I’m waiting to see if it can achieve this or if this forms resistance and sends price back down:

The USDX is still being supported by the daily bull trend line:

I’m still keeping an open mind about which way things will trend from here.

Japan’s Finance Minister spooked the Yen pairs’ rally with some ill chosen words and it will be interesting to see how deep a retracement this causes.

There is little scheduled news through the US session so we’ll see how the broader markets fare.

Tuesday 9th (11 am)

The EURX is certainly looking bullish on the daily chart. It has broken up and out from the bull flag pattern BUT has yet to clear the Ichimoku Cloud:
EURX

USDX: this has yet to break down from the daily flag pattern. It also has a LONG way to go before  hitting its daily Cloud. So, any full ‘risk on’ alignment is some way off.

Even so, there are some ‘risk on’ trades I’m still keeping an eye on:
E/U: I’m looking at tomorrows candle close for a possible daily TS signal: 

E/J: I’m looking for a pull back to the monthly 200 EMA (@ 128.5) for a possible LONG entry:

There is Chinese data out soon that might impact all of these though. We shall see.
I have to go to hospital for the afternoon. I’ll be back this evening….I hope!

Tuesday 9th (10.10 am)

Ok, so shortly after noting the EURX on the daily Cloud….check out the movement with the E/U!

Tuesday 9th (10.10 am)

This is actually getting exciting….the EURX is trying to push up through the Cloud:

Tuesday 9th (7.30 am)

Hmmm. No signal yet on the E/U daily chart:

E/J: I think the 140 target might be on if price holds above the monthly 200 EMA:

U/J: I’m still thinking that 103 will be a good target. I’m looking at the 100 level to see if this holds and, if so, it might allow an entry: 


Tuesday 9th (5.50 am)

Well, I didn’t miss too much action overnight. The markets were choppy in the news free zone but it seems traders are cautious ahead of the next earnings period.
The USDX ticked back up but the EURX is holding its ground out of the flag pattern break:

The USDX is back in the Cloud though on the 4hr chart so we are still in for some choppiness: 

EURX daily: This is the chart that grabs me most. I am watching for this to see if it can emerge from the Cloud. If it does, I think then we might be in for another period of ‘hold on to your hats’. Defies logic, I know, but you’ve got to trade what you see and go with trend:

EUR/GBP: I have had a signal to LONG on the E/G. I think I’d wait for it to clear the 4hr 200 EMA and monthly pivot though:

E/U: was choppy. This suits me fine though as it allows another chance for a TS signal to set up if, indeed, the charts do flip towards ‘risk on’

A/U: is much the same as for the E/U. There is some ‘red flag’ Chinese CPI data out later today that might get this going, one way or another:

Yen pairs: these have continued overnight and this causes me great frustration. I got in LONG on the U/J too early a few weeks ago and now I’ve missed the bus. So, a double whammy. I had been emphasising the 95 level on the U/J and it is now 430 pips above this.It does my head in a little!

Monday 8th (9 pm)

E/U: I haven’t got a signal on the 4hr E/U BUT, if ‘risk on’ continues, I might get a signal tomorrow off the daily chart. Then a target of 1.33 looks ok…is the 61.8% fib pull back and the weekly 200 EMA:

The E/U also looks set up to maybe have a good 30 min chart night:

Monday 8th (8.50 pm)

Another look at the USDX: it is falling a bit as I type:
USDX monthly: maybe a double top?

USDX weekly

USDX daily: I’m watching for a break of the daily trend line: 

USDX 4hr 
EURX monthly:

EURX weekly

EURX daily: looking for a flag break on the daily chart:

EURX 4hr: breaking up now. Need to see  a close outside the flag on the daily close though: 

Monday 8th (6.40 pm)

The EURX is having a go at breaking the flag pattern trend line:
There isn’t any red flag news tonight, none scheduled at least. These nights often tend to be positive for ‘risk on’. Kind of….’no news is good news’.

Monday 8th (4.10 pm)

The EURX is struggling at the resistance of the upper boundary of the falg pattern and of the Ichimoku Cloud:

I am expecting the US session will give some movement perhaps; that tends to be the over riding pattern.

Monday 8th (3 pm)

Some indecision apparent:
E/U: hovering just under the 1.30 level:

A/U: stuck between the 1.04 level and the daily 200 EMA for the time being:

Monday 8th (11.05 am)
The EURX has paused in its ascent up towards the potential flag breakout:

The USDX has pushed back up over that key 61.8% fib level again:

This push back up with the USD has stalled the progress of Gold and Silver, for the time being at least, and thus a TS signal has yet to evolve. It will probably take until the US session for the direction of the USD to emerge more clearly.

The A/U is poised and waiting for some job ads data at 11.30am

Monday 8th (8.20 am)

The markets have opened with some ‘risk on’ momentum being evident. The Yen pairs have kept marching up and the E/U is trying to get back above the 1.3 level. I don’t have any signals on the E/U or on, its friend, the Swissie. The Cable is up also but no signal there either. The Aussie isn’t doing much and I suspect it might remain quiet until after tomorrow’s jobs data.
My chart updates times have changed again with the close of daylight saving here. The updates times now are: 7am, 11am, 3pm, 7pm, 11pm, 3am.
I am getting signals forming up on Gold and Silver though but need the 11 am candle close to confirm this.
Gold 4hr

Silver 4hr