Trading Week 11/03/13

Saturday 16th (5.30 am)
Mixed US data has given choppy trading overnight:

The USDX is testing the broken daily trend line:

The EURX is holding it together near the weekly & monthly pivot and 4hr 200 EMA:

The A/U signal is undeterred though

The Cable reversed and, I suspect, will test the 1.58 level:

The EUR/GBP reversed too

So, it’s more of the same really: Cloud divergence = choppy 4hr charts

The E/U and Kiwi look promising though!


Friday 15th (8 pm)
No new TS signals just yet.

The 3 current TS signals are ticking along ok though; A/U, G/U and E/G:

Friday 15th (6 pm)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uSD4vsh1zDA

USDX

E/U


S&P500


Friday 15th (4.30 pm)
We are still at major levels EVERYWHERE!

E/U 1.3    E/J 125     A/U 1.04    A/J 100      G/U 1.58…a bit above     and    U/J 96.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see a flip back to ‘risk on’ alignment soon. Check out the 4hr Cloud charts:

The USDX is edging closer to the daily bull trend line:

The EURX is edging up closer to the flag pattern trend line:

E/U: looks like it might be building for a move:

Friday 15th (8.20 am)
I’ve got a smaller bull support trend line is in place on the USDX daily chart. A break of this might be telling:


Friday 15th (8 am)
We are at major levels EVERYWHERE!
E/U 1.3    E/J 125     A/U 1.04    A/J 100      G/U 1.58…a bit above     and    U/J 96.

Cable: I did get a TS signal to long BUT I’d be very wary as this came after a big 4hr candle move. I’d actually wait for this to re-test 1.58 to go long. I’d also wait for the London session before trading this pair anyway.

Friday 15th (6.40 am)
I’m wondering if the Kiwi is setting up in a bullish descending wedge pattern on the daily chart?

Maybe the E/U too??

I’m keeping an open mind though….

Friday 1th (6 am)
The USDX is back into falling mode whilst stocks have continued to tick up. The USDX is back at the 82.59 level. This is proving to be a hugely significant level for the index:

The EURX has bounced along sideways:

Stocks chopped upwards:

My TS signals, whilst few this week, have been better. The AU signal has extended to 120:

The EUR/GBP signal has moved on too:

These divergent markets often give good 30 min chart trades during the US session. Some upbeat comments out of the BOE sent the Cable flying. This gave an easy 100 pip haul off the 30 min charts:

The E/U is back above the 1.3 level and getting close to a daily bear trend line:

‘Risk on’ still seems to be the preferred path for most pairs at the moment. I’m watching the USDX and the 82.59 level. A ‘make or break’ of this level might determine the next major move. I am starting to suspect that if this level fails to hold again soon then it might trigger a rather significant ‘risk on’ move.

Thursday 14th (8.30 pm)
The USD seems to be marching upwards along with stocks in pre-market trade:

EUR/GBP: I’d still wait to see if this closes below the support trend line

The Yen seems to be weakening again though. I’m not sure I’m going to get my U/J 95!

Thursday 14th (5.30 pm)
Little has changed. No new signals. There is a bit happening today on the red flag news front which might cause some movement.

Thursday 14th (3 pm)
The A/U has gained on the good jobs data. My TS signal is now up 100 pips:

The E/U is down but has not given a short signal:

The EUR/GBP gave a signal this morning BUT I’d want to see it close and hold below the trend channel before jumping in here:

The USDX is above its Ichimoku Cloud on the daily and 4hr charts. The EURX is below the Cloud on the 4hr but in the Cloud on the daily chart. I’m watching for alignment to possibly kick in here:

Thursday 14th (5.30 am)
Stocks have been choppy, the USD is up and the Euro down:

The USDX is back above the 61.8% fib level:

EURX

A/U: the signal is still up but I’d have stop to entry. There is Aussie data out later today which might shift things here:

E/U: No TS signal here! Not really surprising I suppose as there is still risk appetite around at the moment. The US retail data was positive but there was some poor Euro data overnight. A close below the 1.3 level would be bearish for this pair though.

Swissie: I thought I’d look at the Swissie as it often trades inversely to the E/U but no signal here  yet either:

G/U: might have formed a floor…for the time being at least:

Looking at the Ichimoku Clouds:
USDX: is above the Cloud on the daily and 4hr so bullish for USD
EURX: is now currently IN the Cloud on both the daily and 4hr time frame so will be choppy at a minimum. I’ll be watching to see if the daily candle closes in the Cloud:

So, we still have Cloud divergence across the indices. We still also have the situation with a rising USD and rising/holding stocks. I’m still watching with interest to see whether this is a new trading paradigm unfolding before my eyes.

I have to travel a bit today so will update when I can. It seems that the choppiness will be with us for a bit longer though.

Wednesday 13th (9 pm)
The USDX is trying for a run back up to the 82.59 level. There is US retail data out in a couple of hours which might get things going.

Wednesday 13th (5.50 pm)
Not much happening. The USDX has dipped below the 82.59 level though:

The EURX is getting cramped and something has to give soon:

Wednesday 13th (12.30 pm)
It feels like the calm before the storm…only I don’t which way it’s coming from or heading to!

The USDX is literally hugging the 61.8% fib level:

The EURX is bouncing around under the upper boundary of the flag pattern and the 108.5 S/R level:

The E/U is fairly typical of most pairs at the moment. They all seem to be in holding patterns:

Wednesday 13th (10 am)
The EURX is kind of between a rock and a hard place at the moment:

I’m watching the pull backs in the Yen pairs closely.

Wednesday 13th (6.20 am)
Stocks and currencies chopped about in thin trading.

The USDX is hanging on to that key 61.8% fib retrace level:

The EURX is trying to get up through the flag trend line and resistance of 108.5. It touched there once overnight:

The A/U signal is up just 55 pips:

Stocks have been choppy too:

The E/U is still hanging in above the 1.3 level:

Gold has ticked up but I don’t have a TS signal just yet:

The E/G is edging up closer to the upper trend line of the monthly trend channel. Choppy action means no TS signal yet though:

No new TS signals on 4hr charts with this choppiness.

Tuesday 12th (8.35pm)
Poor GBP data helping the EUR/GBP:

Tuesday 12th (8.25pm)
The A/U signal got a new wind:

Tuesday 12th (8.10pm)
It’s choppy guys. No new signals. None on the horizon. Market topping stuff for sure. We need to be patient and to wait and see the next major new trend/direction. Whatever it is…I’ll trade it. It’s just gotta show itself first!

Tuesday 12th (7.15 pm)
This topping market action is soooooo monotonous as FX has been very choppy and with few trades off 4hr charts. I’m lucky I have a few distractions…a teenage son…husband on crutches BUT…also my stocks watch list.

One key stock/ETF I’m stalking is the Banking ETF: KBE. Check out the charts below. I’m watching for any close above the $30 resistance as, then, I think the previous high of $60 might be the next destination:

I’m keen on the Sept $28 Call Options….currently @ $0.95 cents. Jan $29 is @ $1.05. I’m watching out out for any pull back to get in cheaper. I do LOVE a bargain!

Tuesday 12th (5.15 pm)
The EURX is struggling at the flag trend line:

The USDX is still supported by the 61.8% fib level:


The A/U signal gave just 30 pips or so before pulling back. The last candle looks like a reversal candle too:

Here is an article discussing the conundrum for stocks with a higher dollar: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100543086
Tuesday 12th (2.20 pm)
Note how the daily Cloud has supported the EURX:

Tuesday 12th (1.40 pm)
I’m beginning to think this rally must be conforming to a geometric progression rather than an arithmetic one!

Tuesday 12th (1 pm)
I see it so I believe it…I just don’t get it. The EURX rally:

The A/U signal is up a bit:

 No other new signals yet.

It will be another London/US session with little news…just some GBP news.

Tuesday 12th (8.20 am)

The EURX is getting up close to the upper trend line of the bull flag pattern. This is also near the major S/R level of 108.5. I would consider a break and close above the 108.5 level to be very bullish:

I’ve had a new TS signal to LONG on the A/U. This pair has also broken up from a descending trend line on the daily chart:

I almost have a signal to LONG the E/G and I am watching this:

Tuesday 12th (5.45 am)

It seems like no news was good news for sentiment during the US session. Stocks have bumped along happily:

This ‘risk appetite’ was accompanied by a soft USD though last night so…just maybe…that new paradigm might not be upon us! 

The soft USD saw a stronger Euro:


Now…for the life of me….I cannot see why the Euro should rally BUT you’d be a fool to ignore this bullish looking flag pattern on the EURX daily chart:

A bit of ‘Risk appetite’ has been evident with the currency pairs too:
The E/U is holding above the 1.3:

The A/U has bounce back up from the 1.02 level BUT I don’t have a TS LONG here yet:

U/J: I’m wondering if I should have just taken this from the 96 level. I’m not sure we’ll get a pullback to 95:
So, choppy markets continues with this major divergence. 

Monday 11th (8 pm)

I’ve just had a 4 hr candle close but little has changed. No new TS signals.

Monday 11th (6 pm)

The USDX is slipping back to test the 61.8% fib level:

The EURX is moving up to test the flag pattern trend line:


Asian stocks were mixed today. It will be interesting to see how London and US markets move in a relatively news free day. 

Monday 11th (2.20 pm)

We still have the unusual phenomenon of both the USDX and EURX trading above their Ichimoku Clouds on the daily and 4 hr time frames. The USDX is also holding above the 61.8% fib retrace level of 82.59…. for the time being:

The A/U and E/U are holding up and the w/e Chinese data may have helped. There isn’t much scheduled news ahead during the London /US session and that often sees stocks/risk appetite drift higher. Kind of like…’no news is good news’.
I’m not rushing in to any trade. I don’t have any new TS 4hr signals anyway. I’m keen to see the U/J back at 95 for a LONG and the G/U back at 1.5 for a SHORT. Dream on though perhaps.
BTW: My chart updates times have been changed and are now at 8am, 12, 4pm, 8pm, 12 midnight & 4am.