Trading Week 12/08/13

Friday 16th Aug (4.50 pm)
USDX: this seems to be bouncing off the strong support level of the weekly trend line….again!

EURX: still range bound within a triangle construct:

Stocks: Lots of stocks are pulling back and this gets me rather excited….shopping opportunities ahead perhaps! The S&P500 is down a bit but could drift all the way back to the 1577 area without being too out of the ordinary and as part of the normal ebb and flow of any continued bullish move:

Friday 16th Aug (2.45 pm)
USDX: this is bouncing off the strong weekly support trend line again. it will be interesting to see if this bounce can hold up during the US session:

Price is well below the Cloud on the daily Ichcimoku chart but trying to test the Cloud again on the 4hr chart:

A/U: I’m still seeing that ‘Cup & Handle’:

Kiwi: is very choppy under the weekly 200 EMA. price might fly if it gets past that barrier though!

I’m in at the hospital and it looks like we’ll be here for a number of days still 🙁

Friday 16th Aug (6 am)
USDX: this is back down at the weekly support level. This is a major development and a failure of this level could prove to be a significant turning point:

EURX: still chopping within the triangle

S&P500: stocks drifted lower though, even with a falling USD, with worries over some poor data and earnings.

E/U: has enjoyed the USD’s misery

E/J: flat

A/U: pulled back with stocks. My TS signal was thwarted!

I haven’t given up on my bullish ‘Cup & Handle’ here just yet though. I’ve adjusted the trend lines to capture the latest choppy action and the pattern still looks like a possibility …for the time being:

A/J: previous signal has closed off after giving 200 pips!

G/U: the wedge and then triangle break has given pips!

EUR/AUD: the TS signal closed as this pair bounced off support:

Kiwi: very choppy as it reaches up to the weekly 200 EMA. These levels do seem to cause a great deal of havoc!

U/J: has been pretty predictable:

Thurs 15th Aug (8 pm)
USDX: this has turned and looked to have evolved into the bearish ascending wedge pattern:

EURX: still trading in the newer triangle pattern

Note how price is getting down close the weekly support trend line though! This needs watching!

E/U: maybe a bullish break out and up from the descending wedge pattern starting?

A/U: the bullish ‘Cup & Handle’ seems to have evolved and I have a new TS signal to LONG. Stocks have slowed yet this pair remains bullish:

 G/U: the bullish descending wedge pattern evolved here too reversing the previous TS signal.

Kiwi: this TS signal is still going as is the bullish break from the descending wedge here:

EUR/AUD: a new TS signal to short but a support trend line is close by:

E/J: this TS signal closed off after giving 80 pips:

U/J: price is lurking under resistance

Silver: this TS signal and triangle break is up 220!

S&P500: the 1,685 is under some pressure:

Really though, the S&P500 could pull back to the 1577 area, or thereabouts, without being too much of a drama. This area was a major break and it would not be a surprise to this tested again or even a few more times!!!

USD data: there is a bit of red flag data out tonight that might move the USD and, thus, impact on pairs so be careful.

My son is probably going to be in hospital for a few more days 🙁
I’ll be tied up there for a bit longer then.

Thurs 15th Aug (11.30 am)
A/U: bullish break on my Cup & Handle:

G/U: flag break here too. Watch that upper trend line above price:

Kiwi: bullish break continuing here too so far:

U/J: the 61,8% fib and 4hr 200 EMA proved too much!

I’m heading back to the hospital. I won’t update again until later.

Thurs 15th Aug (6.30 am)
USDX: has stalled a bit.

EURX: is still trading within the triangle pattern. Note that the looming lower support trend line is the major weekly support trend line. A failure of this support might see a return to ‘risk off’, especially id the USDX continues to hold or even rally off its support:

S&P500: down but no momentum

E/U: holding

A/U: might even be viewed as a bullish break

Kiwi: bullish break here AND with a TS signal

I’m heading back to the hospital now so will update further when I return.

Wed 14 th Aug (8 pm)
I’m home now but dog tired. Thankfully, I’ve haven’t missed too much. The USDX is a little bullish and the EURX is just plain choppy. US PPI data later might add some direction.

USDX 4hr Cloud: trying to punch above the Cloud

EURX: I’ve adjusted trend lines to reflect latest S/R levels:

S&P500: choppy in pre market trading. I’m wondering if the bullish breakout on AAPL might be a stimulus for ‘risk appetite’ on the broader markets:

E/U: still in a bullish pattern for me…a falling broadening wedge…time will tell though!

E/J: in a holding pattern at the monthly pivot and above the 130:

A/U:  in a holding pattern above the monthly pivot. Also, I see a bullish descending broadening wedge here too!:

A/J: in a holding pattern below the monthly pivot and above the key S/R level of 0.89…. for now that is:

G/U: short signal closed for a loss of 10 pips or so:

Kiwi: still looks bullish to me! A bullish descending broadening wedge here too!

U/J: as mentioned this am…stalling under key resistance…the 61.8% fib and the 4hr 200 EMA

I’ll be in at the hospital again tomorrow. I hope to take my laptop with me though so should be able to blog…it keeps me sane!

Wed 14th 12.40
I’ve had to take my son to hospital today for an emergency procedure.

Will update when I can but will be at hospital for today.

Wed 14 th Aug (6 am)
Carl Icahn must have been following my blog updates on Apple!

Wed 14 th Aug (5.45)
USDX: has bounced off support for sure BUT this bounce hasn’t had the same momentum as previous ones:

USDX 4hr : bumping up against resistance in form of the Cloud

EURX: choppy but not dead! Still at the monthly pivot and near triangle trend line:

S&P500: choppy too

TS signals:
E/U: My TS system clearly knows better than me. We’ve broken the support of the weekly 200 EMA. Signal up about 80 pips.

E/J: also given 80 pips. Sitting near monthly pivot:

 A/J: still going and has given 150 pips. Also struggling at the monthly pivot:

Silver: TS signal still going

Gold: TS signal has closed off now after giving 250 pips!

A/U: the support trend line was broken and price is at the monthly pivot. This still looks bullish to me as it still seems to be setting up as a ‘Cup & Handle’ pattern. The descending wedge (Handle) pattern is a bullish pattern in it’s own right: 

Kiwi: choppy but also looking bullish. Also, NO TS signal to short here!

G/U: going nowhere quickly!

U/J: has pulled back now to the 61.8% fib level and the 4hr 200 EMA. These technical barriers might help to hold price. A breach of these levels might give the U/J some run though:

Tuesday 13th Aug (7.45 pm)
USDX: this index is struggling at the moment:

EURX:  this has had a triangle breakout:

USD retail sales data out later tonight might sway these indices.

Silver and Gold continue to give pips from their TS signals too:


Tuesday 13th Aug (5.50 pm)
E/U: the signal didn’t close off BUT I’d still want a clean break and hold below the weekly 200 EMA first:

A/J: up 130 pips now:

E/J: up about 40 pips already

A/U: still watching here:

G/U: waiting here ahead of important GBP CPI data out shortly:

Tuesday 13th Aug (3.50 pm)
USDX: this has been a bit subdued but the EURX has made a trend line break:


E/U: this signal has just about closed for about a 10 pip gain. I was never keen on it as it didn’t ever close and hold below the weekly 200 EMA:

E/J: this has given a new LONG signal on my 3pm candle and a channel break:

A/U: I’m looking for a new signal here and a flag break:

A/J: this TS signal from last week is still going!

G/U: This gave a TS short BUT I’m on the lookout for any bullish break too:

Kiwi: ditto for here:

U/J: looking bullish but no clear TS signal just yet:

Tuesday 13th Aug (11.05 am)
G/U: just a signal to short here. I’m wary though. Price is below the Ichimoku on the 1 hr chart but is above the Cloud on the 4hr and the daily. It could be due a pull back though to the area near the 61.7% fib level which happens to be near the 4hr 200 EMA:

Tuesday 13th Aug (10.55 am)
A/U: another ‘Cup & Handle’ pattern forming up here?

NB: US retails sales data is out tonight. This may trigger moves with the USD that impact the pairs!

Tuesday 13th Aug (10.30 am)
AAPL: this stock is starting to look more bullish as it holds above the Ichimoku Cloud and nudges up against a resistance level:

Tuesday 13th Aug (7 am)
Gains with the USD were capped so there was only choppy action overnight. Basically, it looks like everything is still in a ‘holding’ pattern for the time being:



S&P500: choppy

A/U: TS signal now closed off BUT it may be a bull flag forming under key resistance of 0.92

A/J: TS signal still open and it may also be building momentum under the key S/R of 0.89:

Silver: still going strong!

Gold too!

E/U: the weekly 200 EMA has held up so far. I see a new flag forming here. The TS signal is in profit but I’d have any stops to entry in case this reverses to the upside:

E/J: a bullish descending wedge?

G/U: another bullish holding pattern under a key trend line:

E/A: drifitng

Kiwi: this may also be a ‘bull flag’ forming up:

U/J: not too sure here but it could also be a ‘bear flag’ forming:

G/A: a bullish descending wedge here too?

AUD/NZD: still in its channel

Monday 12th Aug (7.20 pm)
A/U: struggling at the Cloud on the daily Ichimoku chart:

Monday 12th Aug (7.05 pm)
E/U: I still prefer to see a close and hold below the weekly 200 EMA before shorting.

I had always expected the weekly 200 EMA to be tested, even if the up move continues.

U/J: check out the Bollinger bands on the 4hr chart!

Monday 12th Aug (5.30 pm)
USDX: seeing a bounce off the strong support level here just now:

E/U: getting the trend line break but a while until the candle closes:

Kiwi: ditto

G/U: a TS short trying to form here too.

Monday 12th Aug (4.10 pm)
E/U: it could be a ‘bull flag’ forming up too!

I’d have stops tight now on any AUD or Silver/Gold trades. We may see a return to ‘risk off’ if the USD stays bullish.

Monday 12th Aug (3 pm)
E/U: I have had a signal to short the E/U BUT I have also been expecting the weekly 200 EMA to be tested again as well, even if momentum is to then continue upwards. I’d rather ‘short’ on a clear triangle trend line break and, even, a clear break below the weekly 200 EMA. This is especially so given that the USD index and EURO index are still at critical levels with no real clear new direction on either just yet:

Monday 12th Aug (2.15 pm)

The indices are still drifting around near the same levels from the w/e close. I’m on the lookout for the USD to either breach or respect the major weekly support trend line:


There are 4 open TS signals from last week:
A/U: has given 190

A/J: has given 100 and hit the key 0.89 as suspected!

Silver: on fire!

Gold too! This will help the Aussie: 
Other pairs:
E/U: triangle bound still for the time being

E/A: the technical pattern continues to give:

G/U: stumbling around under the trend line: 

Kiwi: still held by a daily support trend line: 

U/J: still triangle bound too: 
I think we won’t get any real momentum, if at all, until the US session.