Trading Week 13/05/13

Friday 17th (6 pm)

Just 2 signals open now still:A/U and EUR/AUD:
A/U: has given 340 pips

E/A: has given 110 pips


Friday 17th (3 pm)

No new signals with the 3pm candle BUT the A/U has now closed below the 98 level:
I’m wondering if this might be like opening the flood gates here?
The EURX is starting to look bearish. A small down move here could tip all the index charts into ‘risk off’:

Friday 17th (6.20 am)

USDX: Some mixed data and Fed comments about reducing easing had the USD chopping around a bit overnight but still under the key 84 level:

EURX: this is still chopping around in that pink zone and, more importantly  it is STILL trading above the Cloud but below the 108.5 level. It just refuses to fall…for the time being at least! 

Stocks: chopped around and down a bit on the mixed messages:

Some signals closed off overnight:
E/U:

G/U

Swissie

 U/J closed flat

One New signal: I had a new signal on the EUR/AUD on my 3 am candle:
The Aussie signal is still going but is being held up by major support at the 98 level which also happens to be the area of the weekly 200 EMA and a weekly support trend line. I’m watching to see if this closes below the 98 on the daily candle:

A/J: has not given a clean signal on the 4hr chart BUT is looking quite bearish. A close below 100 might be a better confirmation of any bearish follow through: 
A/J daily

A/J 4hr


Kiwi: is sitting on a major support trend line:

Thursday 16th (9 pm)

S&P500: It might be another good night for a SPY trade:
A/U: The Aussie is at a critical level here…weekly trend line, 98 whole number level and weekly 200 EMA. The TS signal here has already given 260 pips:

Thursday 16th (2.50 pm)

It would not take much of a down move with the EURX to put both index charts into a ‘risk off’ alignment. The last time there was such an alignment the pairs were reluctant to trend that way and the alignment was short lived (about a week). There has been a run of weak global economic data lately that might prompt a different outcome this time though. I’m on the lookout for it!

Thursday 16th (1.30 pm)

Back home now and the temperature is double and the dog was very pleased to see me.
The USDX is still under the 84 level and I’ll be watching for any daily close below the bull trend line:

EURX: is still in the pink! 

Thursday 16th (8.40 am)

Kiwi: I forgot this earlier. The SHORT signal has now closed off:

Thursday 16th (5.50 am)

Some weaker than expected US data seems to have halted the ascent of the USD. It has stalled just under the 84 S/R level. It might just be catching its breath before the next run up though:

EURX: this is still chopping around in a trend channel and wedged between the 108.5 level and the daily Cloud:

The TS signals are still trading up but have paused a bit too:
E/U

A/U

A/U weekly chart: I included an alternative weekly support trend line on my A/U charts when I posted my analysis last w/e. I note that price is sitting here now. This will be a level to watch here over coming days as stocks and the USD negotiate their current lofty levels. Any pull back with stocks would most likely send the A/U tumbling. Conversely, a new rally in stocks might drag the A/U with it given its looking a little more attractive again compared to the E/U just recently:

G/U

U/J

Swissie

Gold and Silver have tumbled further in the last 24 hrs:
Gold

Silver:

Stocks: have still managed to scrape out some gains. The Dow and S&P500 both touched new high levels:
AAPL: Apple never did manage to close up and out of its daily Cloud. The Cloud has demonstrated its value here as better support/ resistance than traditional trend lines!

Wednesday 15th (9.50 pm)

More poor European data is hurting the EURX. It looks to be finally heading down. The USDX is trying to punch up above the 84 level too. This could be a tipping point back into a ‘risk off’ alignment:

Strangely, most European stock markets are trading up at the moment. US stocks seem flat or down slightly in pre-market. It will be interesting to see if they join any new ‘risk off’ alignment.

Wednesday 15th (5.15 pm)
USDX 4hr: you can see price pausing a bit at the monthly 200 EMA:

Wednesday 15th (4.50 pm)

Some weaker than expected European data is weighing on the Euro just now. This might get the EURX moving. It has been stuck between the Cloud and the 108.5 level for some time now:

USDX weekly: the USDX is approaching resistance though so, just maybe, it might slow a bit here:


E/U: The second 4 hr TS signal is now up on this pair. The H&S on the weekly chart looks to be forming up too. It will need to break through the weekly support trend line though first:

Wednesday 15th (7.30 am)
The EURX rally stalled and the USDX continued overnight:

EURX

USDX

USDX weekly: it seems to have the 84 level in its sight: 

I had 3 new TS signals on my 3 am candle: E/U, U/J and Swissie:
E/U:

U/J: 

Swissie:

The other TS signals continue to deliver more pips:
A/U: now up 200

G/U: now up 230 

Kiwi: now up 170 

S&P500 SPY trade: This USD rally has again been accompanied by a further stock rally. These divergent markets contine to give better trading opportunities off the 30 min charts during the US session. Last night gave another opportunity as well. A TS signal came through when the S&P500 was at 1,637:
I would then have looked to buy the May $164 Call Option. The data for this Option is below but I obviously would not have got in at the open price but somewhat higher. Based n the available data though, the May $164 Call opened at $0.62 cents and closed at $1.64. That is an increase of $1.02:

The ROIC= ($1.02/$0.62) x 100 = 164%.
As stated above, I would have had to pay more than $0.62 for the call by the time my signal came though but, even it had increased to $1 that would still be a return of 100%!
Swissie: This pair also gave a 100 pip haul off the 30 min charts. These continue to be low risk, high probability and high reward trades during these choppy conditions:

I continue to be perplexed as to why this USD rally hasn’t seen the Euro fall more than it has.

Tuesday 14th (7.10 pm)

It’s clear as mud at the moment. The latest Euro red flag data was poor but some other lesser data was encouraging. So, the E/U is bouncing around at the moment.
EURX: this keeps trying to close up above the key 108.5 level. To me, it seems to be now just a matter of ‘when’ not ‘if’:

USDX

E/U: has taken off…. for now at least:
The US markets are down in pre-market trade BUT the Aussie markets closed above the key 5,200 level. There are mixed messages across the markets for sure.

Tuesday 14th (5.50 pm)

The E/J and U/J signals have closed off too now:

Tuesday 14th (12.20 pm)

EURX: this index is acting quite pesky today. It is currently trying to break up through the 108.5 barrier. 

USDX: dipping down to the support of the Cloud: 

E/U: has taken off back up. The short signal is now closed. It is back above the 1.3 again.

Aussie stocks: Our Opposition party like to talk negative BUT our stock market is testing that 5,200 level again today. A monthly close above the 5,200 level would be very bullish:

XAO: All Ordinaries

XJO: ASX 200 

Tuesday 14th (9.20 am)

You’d be forming a different picture of things if you just looked at the index daily candle close. For all the rise in the USD, the Euro just seems to refuse to give up and fall. The EURX actually closed up for the day and looks like it’s getting ready to take on the 108.5 level again:

USDX: closed down for the day and with an indecision style ‘spinning top’ candle:

USDX weekly: there is a lot of talk suggesting that the USD will rally further from here. This is thought to be due to expectations of reduced US monetary easing. The USD has a few barriers in its path though in the psychological 84 level and, also, the monthly 200 EMA: 

Tuesday 14th (6.45 am)

The USD is holding up but so too is the Euro. Both indices are trading above their Cloud patterns and neither seems keen to give way to the other:
USDX

EURX

Stocks: chopped around and were fairly flat. They seem a bit lost. It’s like they know they’re meant to trade down with a rising USD but the mood isn’t gloomy enough:
The current TS signals are all doing well:

E/U: still below the 1.3 and would be vulnerable if stocks start to sell off at all: 

E/J

A/U: this is approaching that alternative weekly support trend line I noted over the w/e: 

A/J: no signal here at all yet: 

G/U: this has been one of the better signals for sure! 

Kiwi

U/J

Swissie

Monday 13th (5.30 pm)

There hasn’t been much movement but I suspect the markets are eagerly awaiting the US retail sales data. A good result here might see the USD rally continue which would put pressure on the Euro, AUD and NZD etc. The point here, though, is that this would be more of an optimism based rally. There is also the chance that the result might be worse than expected. We might then have the weird possibility of this causing a pullback with the USD which could then boost the Euro, AUD and NZD etc. So, poor data causing ‘risk on’ moves??  It will be interesting to see how the market reacts to the data.

USDX:

EURX:

Monday 13th (2.15 pm)

Not a lot to report. The Indices are both holding up above their respective Clouds for now:
USDX

EURX

A/U: has slipped below the 1.00 parity level:

E/U: still below the 1.30: