Trading Week 14/01/13

Saturday 19th (6.30 am) Pip tally for the week= 740!
Poor US Consumer Sentiment data and Debt Ceiling concern seem to have kept markets flat following on from the previous day of big moves.

The USDX has pushed higher during the last trading session:

The EURX has re-tested but held above the weekly 200 EMA

The only signals still open are the E/J, A/J and U/J:
E/J 160

A/J 50

U/J 100

E/U: only reached 25 pips before reversing. I was stopped out at B/E after the Chinese data.

EUR/AUD: just about closed off now after getting up to 50+ pips


Friday 18th (4.40 pm)
The TS signals are still going but slowly at the moment. Much as they were at the 3pm post.

Stocks: I was just looking over some of my speculative stock trades and thought I’d mention the’stand outs’.

AMAT: I was tracking this prior to the breakout. Since then it has increased from $11 to $12.50. I bought the July $12 Call for 0.60 cents. This Call can now be sold for 0.97 cents. That is an increase of 61%.

DELL: I was tracking this prior to the breakout. Since then it has increased from $10 to $13.00. I bought the May $11 Call for 0.69 cents. This Call can now be sold for $2.08 cents. That is an increase of 200%.

MU: I also stalked this from the breakout. I was selling Puts and was assigned at $6. The stock is now at $7.81. That is an increase of 30%

HPQ: This was another I have been stalking from the $14 breakout level. It is now trading at $17.11, an increase of 20%.

Friday 18th (3 pm)
The Chinese data was positive but, as expected so, there wasn’t a huge reaction. The TS signals look like they’re starting to move again though:
E/U: 25

E/J: 160

A/J; stalling a bit due to the A/U falling

EUR/AUD: now up 45 after being down earlier

U/J: 100


Friday 18th (9.40 am)
The current TS signals are moving on and even the EUR/AUD is clawing back it’s small loss to be up near entry:

There is major red flag Chinese data at 1pm Sydney time. This is expected to be positive which would help the current signals. A surprise poor number could reverse the momentum though so I’d have stops to entry ASAP. Also, I’d be very wary of the EUR/AUD. A strong Chinese GDP value could give the AUD a major boost, perhaps even more so than to the EUR, and impact this signal to the downside.

The S&P500 gave a great SPY trading opportunity on the 30 min chart overnight. A signal to go LONG came in during the early US session and when the S&P500 was at $1467.

Thus, I would have looked to buy the Feb SPY $147 Call @ $2.00. This Call finished the day at $2.59. 

The ROIC for this trade was 29%!   ROIC = [($0.59/$2) x 100] = 29%.
Not bad for one trading session!

Friday 18th (6 am)

The trend line breaks on the indices have held and the EURX has made it up over the weekly 200 EMA…yeah!

Stocks are having a good session. The S&P500 has punched above a psychological barrier of the previous high:

The Dow Jones is not too far behind:

The signals from last night are mostly doing well:
E/J up 100+

EUR/AUD down 15

U/J up 65

I now have a signal on the E/U and A/J, the latter coming in on my 1am candle:
E/U up 25

A/J up 50

Gold: Gold has hit up against the ‘handle’ trend line and is looking quite bullish

Thursday 17th (9 pm)

The indices have both had trend line breaks now but the USDX candle hasn’t had a close out of its break just yet:

The EURX is back up having another go at the weekly 200 EMA:

E/U: this has had a close right on top of the weekly 200 EMA but has NOT quite formed a TS LONG signal yet. It is also going to have to navigate a trend line from the trading channel.

E/J: this pair has formed a very new TS LONG signal but I would want to see this hold:

U/J: ditto here for the U/J 

EUR/AUD: this pair has formed a TS LONG signal

There are a few items of US ‘red flag’ news out tonight. I suspect that a lot of traders are waiting until after the Chinese GDP data. This data is due out on Friday during the Asian session.

Thursday 17th (6 pm)

It’s getting tight for the USDX:

Thursday 17th (3.45 pm)
No real shift on the indices just yet….

The A/U is getting hit hard.

No TS signals yet…for ‘risk on’ or ‘risk off’.
I read this article on our main line media today….funniest article in some time….
It seems they might have sacked the guy…I would have promoted him….and had him running new business development ‘think tank’ sessions!

Thursday 17th (11.10 am)

I’m going to see how the A/U reacts to the employment data.
I’m out straight after that and will update later this arvo.

Thursday 17th (9 am)

The indices are little changed from earlier. I’ve adjusted the trend lines here to reflect most recent S/R:

A/U: this pair has been ticking upwards. There is AUD employment data which is expected to be negative. Any slight improvement in data though might send this pair on to a triangle breakout. It could also be a catalyst for movement with other pairs. Data due at 11.30 Sydney time. No TS signal here yet though:

Thursday 17th (6am)

Not a lot to report as action has simply been sideways chop:

No new TS signals yet BUT they look like they are starting to build:
E/U

 A/U

E/J

A/J

Wednesday 16th (8 pm)

There hasn’t been much change on the indices front. The USDX is still trying to work out whether it will reverse back up steep resistance in the form of the monthly and weekly pivot and weekly 200 EMA. The EURX is still in a trading channel:

Cable: The Cable is currently struggling to stay above a daily bull trend line.


Some stocks:
I am aware that we would need the USDX to keep falling and the EURX to keep risisng to see continued ‘risk on’ and bullishness with stocks BUT the following charts stood out today.

TIF: Tiffany. A bullish breakout here could be construed as a sign of general market recovery;

UPS: looking bullish

FXD: still on its triangle breakout

IYT: Transport ETF…looking very healthy

ANF: A classic triangle breakout.

Wednesday 16th (3 pm)

The USDX is still stuck under the weekly 200 EMA, weekly and monthly pivot resistance levels. The EURX is still in a holding pattern within its trading channel:

I am not at all surprised by this choppy stalling action with the EURX. The weekly 200 EMA is a MAJOR level to negotiate and, even if it does eventually happen, it won’t happen smoothly. There have been some ‘risk off’ moves today but no new TS signals came with any of these. For the time being at least that is.
We still have alignment across the indices for optimum ‘risk on’ moves and this has already delivered long trending trades: 450 pips on the E/J, 220 on the A/J, 200 on the E/J and 180 on the EUR/AUD to date already. I will be expecting more of these kinds of moves if the weekly 200 EMA of the EURX is breached though. 
For now though:
E/U: has broken down from the earlier trading channel but no TS signal

E/J: has broken down from the earlier trading channel but no TS signal

A/U: hugging the major trend line

A/J: no channel and no TS signal

G/U: choppy and I’m not interested in this at the moment.

U/J: no TS signal or channel break yet BUT a daily support trend line looming

Gold: holding up pretty well

Swissie: has had a triangle break BUT I suspect Swiss bank stuff here as it has been very bullish. Thus, I’m ignoring.

Kiwi: chopping around under the major trend line…like the A/U a bit.

I’m keeping an eye out for a channel break on the EURX and, then, TS signals on the pairs.

Wednesday 16th (7.30 am)

The slip in the EURX has stalled and reversed somewhat…most annoying:

The E/U is clawing its way back into the trading channel:

So, too, the E/J:

FX Live is suggesting that the E/U might be a good ‘buy’ here. I will wait now though for a clear new TS signal before jumping in again. “Plan the trade AND trade the plan”.

I am travelling home today and will update when I can.

Wednesday 16th (6 am)

This comment regarding concern over a high Euro has just tipped matters:
Eurogroup’s Juncker: Euro FX rate “dangerously high”–BBG
Written by Jamie Coleman   January 15, 2013 at 18:53 GMT 
Support at 1.3300 being tested.
Watch for stops at 1.3290/95 followed by bids at 1.3280.
The first bit of jawboning heard from the euro group in a very long time, a sign that politicians are concerned that the firmer euro will intensify the Eurozone recession by choking off exports. 

I’m out of my LONG E/U now.

Wednesday 16th (5.40 am)

There was mixed US data and some good earnings results but debt ceiling worries have capped sentiment overnight. The USDX ticked up on this concern:

The EURX is still trading below the weekly 200 EMA but in a somewhat bullish style flag pattern for the time being: 
All of last week’s TS signals have closed off now.
E/U: This has dropped back below its weekly 200 EMA and seems to be in a trading channel. Remember, the E/J took over 2 weeks to shake off its weekly 200 EMA. I am still LONG this pair.

E/J: also in a flag pattern

A/U: starting to look bullish and Gold’s rally is probably helping here:

A/J: also in a flag pattern

Gold: continues to strengthen. Has given a TS LONG signal

U/J: also in a flag pattern

Kiwi: Not giving away too much

The Ichimoku charts are still aligned for optimum ‘risk on’. The EURX will have to hurdle the weekly 200 EMA though before this momentum can continue. I will be watching for new TS signals in line with this if the EURX is able to breach this hurdle. Otherwise, failure to do so, will have me looking for new chart conditions and TS signals to trade ‘risk off’. It is all rather straight forward really BUT I need to wait for new TS signals.

Tuesday 15th (9.30 pm)

Well, the EURX pull back didn’t seem to last too long. It is back up near the weekly 200 EMA again, maybe trying to make another attempt at it. A close and hold above this level would be very bullish for further ‘risk on’ indeed. This is a major resistance level though and may prove too difficult for price to get through. This is a critical level to monitor:

The USDX might be back to breaking down: 

The E/U continues to hold, for the time being at least, above the weekly 200 EMA. The longer it holds above this level then the more bullish that is for this pair. I am still LONG this pair from the triangle breakout: 

The E/J, as with the other Yen pairs, has been spooked though.

U/J: Spooked too:
The A/U continues to hug the major trend line. This pair might be waiting for direction from AUD employment data (Thursday) and Chinese GDP (Friday): 
A/J: might be waiting along with the A/U:
Gold: Gold is looking bullish too, almost a TS LONG and has closed above the monthly pivot. It needs to get over the 4hr 200 EMA now. The upper trend line from the ‘handle’ of the ‘cup and handle’ pattern isn’t too far above current price now either. Continued bullishness here would help the Aussie pairs…and the Kiwi for that matter:

Silver: ditto for Silver:
Kiwi:This is getting back up near its major monthly triangle trend line too:

Tuesday 15th (6.10 pm)

The EURX is pulling back. I’ve drawn in some channel trend lines on the hourly chart:
Price could reverse from here so I’ll be on the lookout for chart signs of this. Choppiness, at this hugely significant level, is to be expected.

Tuesday 15th (6 pm)

The indices have paused and seem to be waiting for some trigger to move further:

The yen pairs reversed after the Economy Minister from Japan made some comments about the Yen. These signals have now closed and I have been stoppped out of my E/J for 330 pips.
E/J max pips of 460

A/J max pips of 220

U/J max pips of 170

E/U: The E/U signal is still holding for the time being and has given a maximum of 220 pips so far:

EUR/AUD: This signal is still open and has given up to 170 pips

Gold looks to be a bit bullish 

A/U: The Aussie continues to hover around the monthly triangle trend line 

There are a number of USD red flag news items due out in a few hours. Be aware of these.

Tuesday 15th (7.45 am)

The EURX is at such a hugely significant level; monthly trend line and weekly 200 EMA. A breach or hold of this level will determine the next market trend:
EURX monthly

EURX weekly

 EURX daily

 EURX 4hr

This bullish pattern on the EURX is complemented by the bearish H&S pattern on the USDX

USDX weekly

 USDX daily

USDX 4hr 
All of this, taken along with the alignment of the Ichimoku index charts towards ‘risk on’ SUGGESTS that continuation is in store. There are no guarantees here at all. This could end up proving to be too big a challenge for both indices and they may reverse. I’ll be on the lookout for that but, at the moment, the momentum still appears to be ‘risk on’.

Ben Bernanke is about to speak. This could shift things!

BTW: DELL has soared. My May $11 Call bought at 69 cents can now be sold for $1.80! That is an increase of $1.11. The ROIC = 160% for just 35 days.

Tuesday 15th (6am)

The EURX has paused just under the weekly 200 EMA. It looks like it is trying to gather strength to navigate this significant hurdle.


The E/U is parked just above the weekly 200 EMA. Like I keep saying, the longer it stays above this key level then the more likely it is to  keep on going. The E/J though took over 2 weeks to get past its weekly 200 EMA:

The E/J has paused too but it is looking a bit ‘bull flag’ like:

The A/U is struggling to break free from its major triangle pattern:

The A/J is also looking a bit ‘bull flag’ like:
The U/J is also bull flag like:
The G/U and Swissie have closed out. I’m wondering if their was some easing with the Swissie?

Monday 14th (8 pm) Woo Hoo….Open TS signals from last week now up to 1,280!

The weekly 200 EMA is giving the EURX some grief…. as expected. I would expect price action to be choppy around this level until it is either breached or rejected, one or the other:

E/U: Price is re-testing the weekly 200 EMA, also as expected. Remember, the E/J took over 2 weeks to shake off its weekly 200 EMA!

I’m away at the moment and will update when I can. The current trend is still ‘risk on’ until the consensus changes and weekly trend lines are broken. There isn’t any ‘red flag’ news scheduled for tonight and that is usually positive for ‘risk on’ so, we’ll see.

Monday 14th (3.50 pm) Woo Hoo….Open TS signals from last week now up to 1,280!

The EURX has reached up to the weekly 200 EMA. Price could stall here a bit or even reverse:

The TS signals from last week are still going:
E/U up 200

E/J up 450 (I have 380 locked in)

A/J up 220

G/U only down 15 now

Swissie still lagging on 60. Swiss Bank to blame here though I think:

U/J up 170

EUR/AUD: up 180 now. I had missed this initial signal though:

I had mentioned in my w/e blog updates that my experience with Cloud Convergence has been that TS signals are more reliable and that they trend for much longer. I am seeing that to be the case again which augers VERY WELL for future trading. Why trade each week when you can wait and trade with more certainty and get greater trends???
BTW: I had been searching for a Trading Chat Forum and recently joined in at Forex Factory. Well, that was short lived. I’d only been there for about a week and it seems that I have been banned! I am trying to find out why I have been banned. They encourage you to post your trading blog/journals. I was a bit of a lone voice suggesting LONG on the E/U last week…maybe that was why???  

Monday 14th (9.50 am)

Risk on seems to be still on at this very early stage in the Asian session. My index charts are not open as yet though.
The E/U is back above the weekly 200 EMA for the moment.

The E/J keeps going:

A/U: this is the one I’m interested in this week

A/J: keeping on with move too

Chinese GDP data due out on Friday will be the key news event to watch for this week.
I’m travelling interstate today and will update later when get back to internet.