Trading Week 14/10/13

Friday 18th Oct (5.40 pm)
U/J: the Cup ‘n’ Handle does not seem to have evolved on the 4hr chart of the U/J but I haven’t given up on my weekly chart version!

U/J 4hr

U/J weekly:

Friday 18th Oct (4.40 pm) 
S&P500: The S&P500 Ichimoku daily chart looks like it could be setting up for a bullish Tenkan/Kijun cross. This has not evolved yet but may do so over coming sessions and needs watching. Any bullish cross that does evolve would be deemed a ‘strong signal’ as the cross would be positioned above the Ichimoku Cloud. One to watch guys!

Friday 18th Oct (3.45 pm)
I’m back from hospitals and highways!

Indices: There is still a ‘risk on’ Ichimoku alignment across the indies and I’m on the lookout for signals in line with this sentiment.

EURX: The parent in me wants to give the EURX one big ‘high five’ and a ‘well done’. It’s finally closed above the monthly 200 EMA. It only took it 10 months of trying!

USDX: is still down:

S&P500: it would come as no surprise that this gave a great SPY trading opportunity during the US session:

E/U: this signal kicked on to give up to 60 pips. Note how price has closed above the key 1.365 level. I took this long.

The following is a monthly chart of the E/U. Take a look across the chart and you will clearly see the significance of this 1.365 level!
Another interesting point to note but this time on the E/U monthly Ichimoku chart. Note how the top of the Cloud is in a similar region to the triangle bear trend line!

A/U: this signal is still going and has given 160 pips:

Cable: this gave a TS signal off my midnight candle and has yielded up to 60 pips.

Swissie: this has given a measly 40 pips:

Nothing else cooking at the moment.

Thursday 17th Oct (10.30 pm)
Indices: there has been a break down on the USDX and a break above the monthly 200 EMA for the EURX. This is a significant development.:


Ichimoku Index alignment: we are back to having a ‘risk on’ Ichimoku alignment across the 4hr and daily charts on the USDX and EURX.

E/U: a TS signal did form up on the 8pm candle. Note also how price is near the major S/R level of 1.365:

A/U: this signal has kicked on now too:

Kiwi: No TS signal here but a triangle break that is zooming along:

Swissie: a new TS signal here:

Silver and Gold: these are breaking up from their bullish descending wedge patterns:


I am away tomorrow morning but will update when I can.

Thursday 17th Oct (5.15 pm)
Indices: the USDX is looking the weaker of the two:


E/U: it looks like a signal is trying to build up here but I’ll need my 8 pm candle close:

Cable: maybe here too!

EUR/AUD: this TS signal has now closed:

My collapsed lung son isn’t well and we’re heading back off to hospital so…. TS signals might just have to wait a bit I’m afraid.

Also, I’m supposed to head interstate again tomorrow and won’t update during the morning.

Thursday 17th Oct (3.40 pm)
Indices: it looks like a ‘Battle of the Ascending Triangles’ is on:


Thursday 17th Oct (3 pm)
Indices: the USDX is back below the weekly 200 EMA and the EURX keeps heading higher towards the resistance of the monthly 200 EMA:


I keep wondering if we will get a return to any classic style of ‘risk on’ if the EURX does manage to break up over the monthly 200 EMA? I am seeing varying reports that the days of traditional ‘risk on’ / ‘risk off’ are long gone but I am yet to be convinced. The EURX has essentially chopped around under this major resistance for most of this year since making an initial attempt back in January. I consider that much of this year has been choppy due to this struggle. I believe that we need a clean make or break of this level before any kind of ‘normality’ or momentum can return.

Thursday 17th Oct (6.30 am)
Tortoise and Hare: My option trades are definitely more of the ‘Tortoise’ type! I sold Puts yesterday on INTC and MSFT that close out tomorrow. The gains seem small but crunching the numbers for a 3 day trade gives a slightly different view:
INTC: (11 cents/$22) x (365/3) = 60% AROIC
MSFT: (15 cents/$34) x (365/3) = 53% AROIC

Thursday 17th Oct (6 am)

Indices: The USD had momentary excitement on the US debt deal resolution but, yet again, has balked at the major S/R level of the 50% fib from the last big down move. This level is best seen on the monthly chart. Price seems stuck between this upper level and the weekly 200 EMA just below:

EURX: the monthly 200 EMA is still a major hurdle for this index but it looks like it hasn’t given up just yet!

Stocks: have rallied on the US news and would have given another great, low risk SPY option trade during the US session:

FX has been a little undecided as it waits to see what the USD is going to do:
E/U: I’m still really waiting for any break of the 1.365


A/U: TS signal still going:

A/J: the bullish wedge break has now given up to 270 pips!

E/A: still going too:

Cable: the hourly chart inverse H&S gave a few scalping pips BUT the daily support trend line seems to be the major guide here:

Kiwi: still going strong!

U/J: there has been a bullish break up and out of the Cup ‘n’ Handle pattern. The break has been tested and it remains now to be seen if there will be bullish continuation:

Swissie: choppy

GBP/AUD: as suspected, price has fallen back away after testing the broken trend line!

Silver: still below the $21.50 but only just:

Gold: is also below support of $1,300 but only just:

Wednesday 16th Oct (8 pm)

Indices: the USDX is slipping a bit and is back below the weekly 200 EMA just now:

EURX: holding up for now

A/U signal still positive

E/A: ditto

GBP/AUD: back at the broken trend line and closed for a 50 loss:

E/U: no signal but holding above the 1.35:

Cable: news helped the inverse H&S to form up!

Kiwi: the triangle break and close above 0.835 has yielded up to 70 pips:

U/J: I still see a bullish ‘Cup ‘n’ Handle’ pattern forming up here:

US news could turn momentum in a heart beat so I wouldn’t leave open orders.

Wednesday 16th Oct (6.30 pm)
Cable hourly chart: a bullish ‘inverse H&S’ pattern? Neck line would be at the 1.6:

Wednesday 16th Oct (3.45 pm)
U/J: a bullish Cup ‘n’ Handle pattern setting up?

Aussie Stocks: I have used some of this down time to review Aussie Stocks worth watching.

Wednesday 16th Oct (2 pm)

Aussie Stocks: I have used some of this down time to review Aussie Stocks worth watching.

Wednesday 16th Oct (12.45 pm)
EUR/USD: This video from Dean Malone just came into my e-mail. It is worth watching.

Wednesday 16th Oct (12.30 pm)
USDX: this rallied over night but stalled at the 50% fib retrace level. This is the 50% pullback move from the last swing high (mid 2010) to swing low (April 2011) and is best seen on the monthly chart:
USDX monthly

USDX 4 hr

EURX daily: this bullish inverse Head and Shoulder has not been wiped out just yet. As I have been saying for some time now, the monthly 200 EMA remains key here:

Wednesday 16th Oct (7 am)

Indices: it seems like the push with the USD was on thoughts of a debt resolution but that ended up being short lived. The USDX has drifted back down to the weekly 200 EMA:


S&P500: a bit was made about a new close back below 1,700 BUT price is still above the major support of 1,685 for the time being:
S&P500 Ichimoku: price is still above the Cloud too:
FX: it is no surprise that this has been choppy. These are not markets for longer term chart trading:
E/U: tested the 1.35:


A/U: signal down but has given up to 60 pips:


E/A: gave up to 80 pips:
Cable: chopping around under the 1.6:
Kiwi: back testing the 0.835:
U/J: signal now closed for a loss  of 30:

A/N: choppy

GBP/AUD: closed off for a loss of 60. Is back testing the broken ‘neck line’ and I’ll be keen to see if this is respected or not:
Silver: still below the $21.50:
Gold: still below the $1,300:

Tuesday 15th Oct (8 pm)

Indices: not sure where this push is coming from:


E/U: trying to form anew TS short:

E/J: this long signal has closed:

Tuesday 15th Oct (6.20 pm)
I have updated my Stocks:Oct page with a look at the Financial ETF: XLF.

Tuesday 15th Oct (5.30 pm)

Indices: are still chopping sideways as they await the big US news, which ever way it goes!


A/U: this TS signal has given 50 pips. I’m sure some folk snickered weeks ago when I suggested 0.97 might be on the cards here! Don’t seem so funny now!

E/J: stalling but has given 130:

U/J: down but not out!

EUR/AUD: flat

GBP/AUD: ditto

Tuesday 15th Oct (12.45 pm)

GBP/AUD: this has now given a new TS signal on my 4hr charts. This signal came along with a break of that trend line ‘neck line’ I discussed this morning:
EUR/AUD: a new signal here too:


Tuesday 15th Oct (10.40 am)
E/U: this signal has closed off for -20

Tuesday 15th Oct (8.30 am)

A/U: I have received a TS signal on the A/U BUT I’d prefer to see a close above the 0.95 AND I’d wait until after RBA news later this morning. The 0.95 could cause some grief as a double top as it is also the 38.2% fib pull back level after the last down move:
U/J: I have a signal on the U/J as well:


Tuesday 15th Oct (6.45 am)
Indices: haven’t moved too far:


Stocks: are still trading as if a resolution is coming:
S&P500 30 min chart: gave a great SPY Call Option trading opportunity overnight:
FTSE: ditto for the FTSE

E/U: drifting:

E/J: TS signal now up to 130:
A/U: trying to form a new TS signal but need the 8am candle close and trying to break 0.95. There is AUD later this morning though:
A/J: this wedge breakout just keeps giving!
Cable: hanging near the safety of the 1.6:
Kiwi: no new TS signal but has been a triangle break and a close above the S/R level of 0.835:
U/J: trying to form a new TS signal too:
Swissie: hanging near the major S/R level of 0.91:
GBP/AUD: this is down near a support trend line and it also has the look of a neck line from a possible ‘double top’. AUD and GBP today so needs watching for any break/respect:

Monday 14th Oct (7.40 pm)
Kiwi: looking bullish at the moment.

Monday 14th Oct (5.30 pm)

Indices: are holding fairly steady as many markets are closed today and the US Government remains shutdown:



Stocks: I’ve posted some charts in my Stocks: Oct page of stocks that have my interest as they push up against trend lines.