Trading Week 15/04/13

Sat 20th (6 am)

Cable: The G/U 4hr signal got whacked overnight:

I keep saying how these choppy divergent markets are best traded off the 30 min charts during the US or even London session. The 30 min chart of the Cable shows how this could have been a favorable trade last night. A short, small profit 30 min LONG trade and, then, a SHORT trade. 
E/J: defeated again. Price on the E/J is above my entry but my tight stop saw me taken out. That will teach me…I should have either waited or stuck to my usual trading plan! I need a drink….good think we’re off wine tasting this w/e.

Friday 19th (9.50 pm)

E/J: I’ve actually taken this trade again. A small ‘stop’ but it probably comes under the heading of ‘revenge trading’.

I still think this pair will hit 140…eventually….after one of these break outs!

Friday 19th (7.50 pm)

EURX: I have a feeling that this might take on the 108.5 level tonight!

E/J: I’ll be somewhat annoyed if this new TS signal takes off as I got whipped by this earlier in the week!

Friday 19th (7 pm)

I just got a post in my e-mail warning me of a major stocks (risk on) correction where the Dow could PLUMMET and fall 800 points. I’m no expert for sure and I don’t make predictions BUT I just ain’t seeing signs of that yet. The EURX, proxy for ‘risk appetite’ of late, is still looking a bit bullish at the moment. It is above its daily Cloud and knocking on the 108.5 door. Sure, it may reject this and turn south BUT that ain’t happened yet:

The USDX on the other hand, whilst still above its daily Cloud for the time being, is looking vulnerable and as if it’s trading in a bearish descending triangle:  

So, time will tell if the PLUMMET occurs. I would end up getting an alignment of ‘risk off’ signals on my Index Cloud charts but this would lag a bit behind this current warning. 
Yen: I’ve only got a signal on the E/J so far. I got caught on this pair once this week so I’m passing for now…esp with G20 and IMF being on:

Cable: I’ve got a signal here after a big move on the last 4 hr candle:

Signals are trying to form up on the U/J, A/J and Gold too.


Friday 19th (5.55 pm)

Yen pairs: so I go and make a birthday cake and….

BTW: I’m away for the w/e. It is school holidays here and a family birthday so we’re off for some wine tasting in the Hunter Valley. Thus, my weekend posts might be late. The IMF meetings go through to Sunday so I’m not too sure much will happen until they’re out of the way anyway.  

Friday 19th (4.15 pm)
Compass FX video on waiting for IMF and G20 outcomes.

Friday 19th (4 pm)
Gold: on the move?

The TS signals have closed :
A/U for 50 pip loss:

G/U: for 50 pip loss

A/J: triangle breakout but no TS signal yet

Friday 19th (2.30 pm)
Ichimoku Update:

Daily chart: both EURX and USDX are above the Cloud:

4 hr charts: USDX is in the Cloud and EURX are above the Cloud:

Friday 19th (12.20 pm)

Kiwi: something ruffling its feathers!

 Aussie pairs too!
A/U:

A/J:

Friday 19th (10.45 am)

S&P500: The week isn’t over yet but, for the time being, the S&P500 looks to be setting up to form a ‘bearish engulfing’ weekly candle. I’ll need to confirm this after today’s close but I thought I’d check the follow through on any other bearish engulfing weekly candles for the S&P500. I have noted some of these on the chart below. There have been a few of them but they haven’t always resulted in bearish follow through. In fact, the tally is roughly 50:50 here so, that is something to keep in mind.The upward arrows denote ‘no bearish follow through’ and the downward arrows denote ‘bearish follow through’:

Friday 19th (10.15 am)

EURX: Not a huge break but the EURX has closed above the daily Ichimoku Cloud:

Friday 19th (8.40 am)

USDX and descending triangle:
Descending triangle patterns: are usually considered to be bearish patterns as explained through this link and illustrated below:
The current print of the USDX daily chart has a descending triangle look to it except for that bit of a spike:
The base line of this triangle has some S/R significance going back in time as can be seen from the weekly USDX chart:

Friday 19th (7.40 am)

USDXdaily: I do love a good triangle. This one is just ok though. Let’s see if it conforms:

Friday 19th (7.20 am)

I have now posted the charts of potential Put Buying stocks in my Stocks: April page. I hope I’m wrong as I’m ‘long’ a couple of these!

Friday 19th (6.30 am)

Some mixed data and earnings results have seen a shift back to a bit of ‘risk off’ overnight with stocks and currencies. The one thing pleasing me now though is that these teo major trading instruments are back in tandem!
I’m sure some folk think I’m rather odd when I harp on about the significance of the 82.59 level on the USDX. This being the 61.8% fib level for the pull back from the last swing low. It seems to be the safety fence level for this pair. Check out where price on the USDX is sitting right now!
USDX:

EURX: chopping around

EURX daily Cloud: price is still trying to hold up and out of the Cloud. You’ve gotta hand it to the EURX. It’s one tough little guy! 
I have drawn some more triangle trend lines in on some of the pairs.I’m not sure whether technical analysis is too valid at the moment as news seems to be driving most of the moves but, heh, I did it anyway!
E/U: hanging in above the 1.3 level:

E/J: triangle trading:

A/U: chopping around above the major monthly support triangle trend line: 

A/J: in a triangle it seems too: 

G/U: just choppy 

Kiwi: triangle trading now too just under a major triangle trend line from the monthly charts: 


U/J: triangle trading too:

Gold: trying to decide which way to move next!

Stocks: it pays to wait for the US session! A decent SPY trade could have been had here!
I analysed a few commodity stocks yesterday; ones that have broken through key support. I’ll post them in my Stocks: April page later this morning.

Thursday 18th April (8.30 pm) 

Trade carefully over next two days….G20 meetings are on!

Thursday 18th April (8.15 pm) 

E/J: I wouldn’t be surprised if this pair forms another buy signal over the next candle or two. I’ve drawn in some new S/R lines and note that any upward breakout would coincide with a break in the monthly 200 EMA, the 129 level and the weekly pivot. This will no doubt happen, if at all, whilst I’m asleep:

Kiwi: I’m noting on the weekly chart how this pair looks quite bullish. There has been a bullish triangle breakout and, then, a re-test of this broken level. It looks like it could launch upwards from here!

Thursday 18th April (8 pm) 

EURX: This is pushing back up again…

Gold: is pushing back up and trying to make a new signal BUT check out them there Bollinger bands: 

There is a bit of ‘risk on’ across the currencies and also in pre-market US stocks. I’ve had a signal on the S&P500 BUT I would want to see how the US session opens:

Thursday 18th April (4.30 pm) 

USDX: this is struggling to get over the monthly pivot and 61.8% fib level of 82.59 (82.60 on this chart!). price is still above the daily Ichimoku Cloud though:

EURX: price is trying to get back above the daily Cloud! 

USDX 4hr: price is back in the Cloud on the USD index 4hr chart!

EURX 4hr: ditto for the EURX

The two latest 4 hr signals have chopped and reversed too:
A/U

G/U

EURX and USDX: The current market choppiness can be easily testified to by the daily Index cloud divergence and, also, by price action embedded within the Cloud on the 4hr charts. It makes it hard to trade and generally means that 4 hr chart trading is nigh on impossible and that better trades are to be had off the 30 min charts during the US or later London session. Not much point complaining. You’ve just got to roll with whatever the charts dish up and, as the song goes…..Don’t fight it!

Thursday 18th April (11 am) 
Stocks and the S&P500
There is much trading chatter about a major stock correction setting in upon us. That may well evolve but I don’t see the signs of it just yet.
The signal for me that a major stock pullback might be under way would be a break of the S&P500 monthly support trend line:
The current stock rally has had a few pull backs along the way. The following weekly chart shows these as occurring last April/June and Sept/Nov:
The Ichimoku Cloud daily charts for these two time periods are shown below. For both periods of these pullbacks there was:

  • a clear cross of the blue Tenkan-sen line below the pink Kijun-sen line AND 
  • price dipped below the Ichimoku Cloud:
April/June pull back

Sept/Nov pullback 

Current chart:The current Ichimoku daily chart does not yet show a cross of the Tenkan-sen below the Kijun-sen or of price moving below the Cloud:
This current price action MAY devolve into a pull back and, then, even on to a more significant correction BUT that can’t be confirmed, for me at least, until there are some clear chart signals. 

Thursday 18th April (8.45 am) 

USDX: this is now back at its old stomping ground of the 61.8% fib level of 82.59!

Thursday 18th April (8.15 am) 

My Go Market charts are back in action.
I have had 2 new TS signals off the 4hr charts but I’m still very wary of these longer term signals.
A/U: a new signal to short BUT price is currently just above major support in the form of a bull support trend line:
A/U 4 hr:

A/U daily:

A/U weekly:

G/U: a new short signal

E/U: NO new signal here though! The 1.3 level might provide an entry if ‘risk off’ continues:

EUR/AUD: this long signal has now closed off:

Thursday 18th April (6.30 am) My Go Markets Charts are down: limited update.

My Go Markets platform charts are down, again, which is annoying but, also, worrying. I don’t have access to my S&P500 charts and, based on what I’m seeing elsewhere, I’m sure there was a good trade there. I’ll check this out if, and when, the charts come back on line.
The USDX rallied last night, I suspect on fear, due to concerns about global growth and some weak Earnings:
USDX: bounced up off the Ichimoku Cloud:

EURX: has not managed to hold above the 108.50 yet:

TS signals: the E/U and E/J both reversed for losses. This is another week of mixed 4 hr signal performance. There have been great 30 min trades though during the US and late London session though. This remains the usual pattern during these Ichimoku divergent markets. Whilst frustrating, at least this regular pattern is of some comfort. Last night was no exception. There was a great 30 min trade on the E/U that gave up to 130 pips. 


E/U: Up to 130 pips starting off in the London session:


G/U: The Cable also gave up to 100 pips during the London session:

Wed 17th April (9 pm) SPY trade could have given 72% ROIC!

EURX: is back below the 108.5 level now. It needs to close above this on the daily time frame to confirm any bullish momentum:

USDX: the Cloud is giving this some support: 

E/U: signal is struggling

E/J: ditto here

E/A: has given up to 170 pips:

Wed 17th April (6.15 pm) SPY trade could have given 72% ROIC!

EURX: It is currently sitting right on the 108.5 S/R level:
The E/U and E/J signals are down a bit. My Go Market platform is down so I can’t see my live or demo platform at all. I use my demo platform for all my charting.
The Ichimoku Index charts are still divergent so, as per usual, I am expecting choppy and variable 4hr charting signals to continue along with better trading opportunities off 30 min charts during the US session. 

Wed 17th April (3.30 pm) SPY trade could have given 72% ROIC!

E/J: a signal came through on the E/J on my 3pm candle:

EURX: this needs to clear the 108.5 level though: 

Wed 17th April (11.30 am) SPY trade could have given 72% ROIC!

E/U: I’ve had a TS 4hr signal on the E/U. This might be risky given the EURX is pushing up against the 108.5 S/R level:
Swissie: I’m somewhat comforted by the fact that the Swissie gave a signal to short though too:
E/J: is trying to form up a signal now too:
G/U: is trying too:

Wed 17th April (8.30 am) SPY trade could have given 72% ROIC!
USDX: This is sitting above a key S/R level at the moment; the 81.70 level. Look across the chart and you can see the significance of this level:

Wed 17th April (6.30 am) SPY trade could have given 72% ROIC!

I’ve decided it is quite expensive for me to go to sleep. There were lots of great trades overnight, during the US session, whilst I slept. The E/U bull flag breakout gave 100 pips and the SPY gave a possible 72% ROIC. Not bad! I had pointed towards these trades last night before they triggered. Details down below.
The Indices are looking like they’re gearing up for more ‘risk on’:

I had been aware of this possible breakdown on the USDX since last week when I noticed and alerted about the bearish Dark Cloud Cover pattern on the weekly chart: 

The USDX fell last night:

The EURX is up attempting to get through the 108.5 level…again: 
The A/U and Kiwi shorts have closed but the EUR/AUD is now up 150 pips:
A/U gave 100 pips

Kiwi gave 100 pips

E/A up 150 pips:

E/U: I was suspecting a bull flag breakout last night and this has indeed evolved:

This gave a great and easy 30 min trade starting during the US session. There was a signal and trend line break that went on for 100 pips…all whilst I slept!


BTW: this is setting up for a 4hr TS signal! I need my 7am candle close.

S&P500: This also kicked off during the US session and gave a signal when price was at the $1,556 level:
I would then have looked to buy the April SPY $156 Call Option:

This Call opened up at $1.25 and, at the time of this number crunching, was at $2.16, an increase of $0.91 cents or 72%:
ROIC= ($0.91/ $1.25) x 100 = 72%
This is all very bitter sweet for me. I spot these great trades setting up, in advance, and, then, due to time zones….I miss them. 


Tuesday 16th April (9.15 pm)

There is a bit of US data out tonight as well as Super Mario speaking. These events could shift momentum either way. This all makes technical trading quite challenging at the moment.

Tuesday 16th April (8.45 pm)

EURX: I need to see where this daily candle closes BUT, for now at least, price has popped out of the Cloud:

USDX: price is still above the Cloud but doesn’t have too far to fall to get below the Cloud:

The 4hr Cloud Index charts are aligned for ‘risk on’. We are probably closer to having a ‘risk on’ alignment than ‘risk off’ BUT I am keeping an open mind. I’ll be on the lookout for any alignment.

S&P500: price action is steady for the time being and might set up for another good US session. This tends to happen often during periods of Ichimoku divergence, like we have at the moment:

Tuesday 16th April (7.30 pm)

S&P500: I’m on the same page as this guy with his S&P500 analysis:
EURX: laugh all you like at me BUT if the EURX pops out of the Cloud on the daily chart THEN we will have a strong shift back towards ‘risk on’. We would need the USDX to drop below its Cloud too though:

E/U: the Bull Flag might be just looking a bit more bullish!
Tuesday 16th April (6 pm)
E/U: a bit Bull Flag like at the moment?

Tuesday 16th April (4.30 pm)

EURX: bouncing off its 4hr Cloud!

It doesn’t have too far to go to get out of its daily Cloud now. The upper edge of the Cloud will act as resistance though

Tuesday 16th April (3.30 pm)

EURX trying to get back up out of the Cloud?

I am mindful of the bearish pattern that set up on the weekly chart of the USDX. Although this was all before the spate of recent bad news and data: 

Tuesday 16th April (11.45 am)

The big moves have paused. It seems to be ‘steady as she goes’ for now. 

Tuesday 16th April (7.30 am)
Stocks: S&P500

Stocks are down but I’d be waiting to see a few more technical signs before jumping in to short. These divergent and choppy markets are giving good opportunities to trade during the US session. I would want to see the following situations evolve though before taking a longer term bearish view on stocks:
  • A close below the Daily Ichimoku Cloud
  • A cross of the Tenkan-sen below the Kijun-sen
  • the weekly trend line broken:

S&P500 Daily Ichimoku chart:

S&P500 monthly chart: 

S&P500 weekly chart:

Tuesday 16th April (6.30 am)

The Chinese data sparked a much wider sell off and a shift back to ‘risk off’. The USDX is up and the EURX is falling:
USDX: bouncing back up off the Cloud

 EURX: Price back in the Cloud!

SPY Put Trade: This fear, and these choppy divergent markets, gave a great SPY Put Option trade though for during the US session. A signal came though on the S&P500 when price was at $1,566.92. I would therefore have looked to buy the May $157 Put:

The May $157 Put opened at around $1.55 and is now at $2.79. This is an increase of about $1.24: 

The ROIC for this trade is around 80%!  ROIC= ($1.24/$1.55) x 100 = 80%
The Put would have moved in price before the purchase could take place though so these figures, as always, are the best approximation given the available data.
The A/U TS signal has given 120 pips:

Kiwi TS signal has given 100 pips:

Gold: the weekly chart looks very ugly. The weekly 200 EMA at $1,440 has now been broken.

Gold monthly chart shows there isn’t much support now, apart from the whole number values, until  the monthly 200 EMA at around $850! 

Silver isn’t looking too good either!
The EUR/AUD gave a signal on my 11pm candle. It has given 90 pips:
No signal on the E/U, Swissie, Cable, E/J or U/J yet though. It seems to be more a Gold/Silver related sell off dragging the commodity currencies for the time being.

Monday 15th April (8 pm)

The EURX is sliding and could slip back down out of its Cloud:

Monday 15th April (7.25 pm)

I’ve had signals on my 7pm candle close to short the A/U and Kiwi:
A/U: I’d probably wait for a close below 1.04 first though

Kiwi:

Monday 15th April (5.30 pm)

EURX: is still getting some support from the Ichimoku Cloud:

Monday 15th April (4.45 pm)

Just back in. My son thought he might be an engineer. After a trip to the orthodontist, I suggested he might re-consider! 
Anyway, some big moves after the Chinese data BUT no follow through ‘risk off’ TS signals yet. They may evolve when Europe and US traders get going though.
Gold seems to have found support in the weekly $1,440 level at the 200 EMA:

The Aussie got some support in the 4hr 200 EMA. We’ll see if it holds!

Monday 15th April (1 pm)

Some more ‘risk off’ creeping in but no new signals that way just yet. 
Gold is finding a bit of support at the $1,440 level of the weekly 200 EMA:

Any wider ‘risk’ fear may see some more support creep in for the yellow stuff!
I’m away for a few hours now taking my Gen Z to orthodontist.

Monday 15th April (12.15 pm)

Some poor Chinese data has hit the Aussie, Kiwi and metals:
A/U:

Kiwi:

Silver

Gold

This might just tip the markets back to ‘risk off’.

Monday 15th April (11.25 am)

The USDX is slipping a bit in early Asian trade:
The EURX is getting some support from the Cloud: 
No 4hr chart TS signals anywhere yet. I’m really not expecting too much until the indices, most notably the EURX, get a move on.