Trading Week 16/09/13

Fri 20th Sept (6.45 pm)

EUR/AUD: we might be getting that trading channel break to confirm the TS signal:

Fri 20th Sept (5.20 pm)
EURX: might need a code to get through the monthly 200 EMA…. like here


Fri 20th Sept (3.45 pm)

USDX: still trading under the weekly 200 EMA. Not much happening anywhere!

Fri 20th Sept (12.40 pm)

There ain’t much a happening. I wouldn’t be surprised to this continue until after the German elections. The EURX has rallied back up to be trading just under major resistance in the form of the monthly 200 EMA. This is a region where it has a history of struggling:

Fri 20th Sept (12 noon)

Index Ichimoku: 
USDX: this chart has now formed a bearish Tenkan/Kijun cross. This cross has occurred below the Cloud and so is considered a ‘strong’ bearish signal:


EURX: this index has given a new bullish cross but this signal is considered ‘neutral’ as it occurred within the Cloud.

BTW: That bearish H & S that I noted over the w/e formed up on the USDX 4hr chart:

Fri 20th Sept (10.30 am)

U/J: I’ve gone back out to the daily chart to look at revised S/R levels here and this is what I’m seeing. It sort of ties in with any bullish break being near the 100 psychological level and, also, near the monthly Ichimoku Cloud break:
U/J daily

U/J monthly Ichimoku:

Fri 20th Sept (8.40 am)

EUR/AUD: I did get a new TS signal on my 7 am candle close BUT there hasn’t been a channel breakout just yet. I’d prefer to wait for that and, also, until the German elections are out of the way:

Fri 20th Sept (5.40 am)

Indices: 
USDX: These are still in Ichimoku alignment but, as suspected, the USDX has paused a bit after its huge slide. It has crept back to test the weekly 200 EMA. I’m keeping an eye on it to see how it keeps going from here:
USDX 4hr
USDX daily: that weekly 200 EMA level looks kind of important on this time frame:

EURX: has kept going though:
EURX 4hr

EURX daily: Now, when I look at the daily chart of the EURX I do see the potential for a bearish triple top forming here BUT I would like to note another charting feature. The  previous two tops did not come with a new TS signal forming up on them. This third top that is forming now does have a new TS signal forming up on the daily chart though. Now, I know my TS signals are not bullet proof but, I think that is worth noting.

S&P500: have paused a bit after the rally post FOMC

TS signals: have been mixed:

E/U: down but not out. It looks to be testing the 1.35 but I’m still thinking it might test the bigger 1.34 area. 

E/J: spiked to yield up to 180 BUT note the pin bar reversal candle: 

A/J: also down but not out:


G/U: this has pulled back and the signal has closed out for a loss of 100 pips. BUT…again…I would expect a test of the 1.6 area at a minimum. 

Kiwi: has yielded up to 180 pips: 
Others pairs:
A/U: pulling back to test the 0.94?


EUR/AUD:  this is trying to form up a new TS signal and a channel break:


U/J: This has broken up through a daily bear trend line but I don’t have any TS signal here:


AUD/NZD daily:  This is choppy on the 4hr BUT the daily chart looks like a new bear flag is evolving. I’d be cautious here as it approached a potential ‘double bottom’ area though.

GBP/AUD: another Aussie cross that looks choppy on the 4hr but better on the daily.
G/A 4 hr: 
G/A daily: I’m a little puzzled with this one. I have re-drawn the trend lines here to capture the latest S/R levels on the daily scale. It could be viewed as a ‘bull flag’ setting up BUT it also has a little bit of a bearish H&S look to it. Maybe trend line breaks will be more of a guide here?? 

Silver and Gold:These have both held up:
Silver:

Gold:

The lack of any QE tapering seems to have caught the markets off-guard and have them quite puzzled. Previous stimulus has driven conventional style ‘risk on’ movements but it seems the markets are thinker a little harder about the deeper meaning of this measure this time around. It might take a bit longer for the dust to settle here and before any new and lasting sentiment evolves. The Euro pairs have a big w/e ahead too with the German elections. I do note though that NUE will close today above the $50 again. I see this stock as a bit of a bellwether but I’m keen to see where it closes for the w/e.

Thurs 19th Sept (7 pm)

E/U: This pair has made a new TS signal BUT I’m wary. The E/U made a huge move with FOMC and, obviously, this is due to USD weakness more so then EUR strength. I’m still thinking that this could pull back to test the broken 1.34 area as this was a major S/R level and a monthly trend line. It is trading well outside the Bollinger bands still too.There is also the German election over the w/e and that fact could hamper further moves. Personally, I’m waiting:

A/J: this has given a new TS signal too but is also at a major level as seen from the daily chart:

A/U: no new TS signal here yet though!


Thurs 19th Sept (6.45 pm)

E/U: I’m a little cranky at missing the action here after stalking this pair for so long on the 4hr charts. To annoy myself further I’ve looked back to the 30 min charts. A clean TS signal came through during the US session but just before the big FOMC move:

Thurs 19th Sept (6.30 pm)

Stocks: I’ve updated my Stocks:Sept page. Check out the bullish break on NUE!


Thurs 19th Sept (5.20 pm)

I’ve been at a trading group meeting all day. I see that most of the stocks on my watch lists have taken off.
E/J: this gave a new signal on my 3 pm candle:
No new signals on E/U or A/U yet but they are forming. They might evolve on the 7 pm candle.

Thurs 19th Sept (11 am)

No new TS signals just yet. A/U is trying to though!

Thurs 19th Sept (9.20 am)

Ichimoku Alignment: we have, once again, a situation where the USDX and EURX are aligned for ‘risk on’ on both their 4hr and daily time frames. These periods can indicate the start of long lasting trends when they do form and, more importantly, when they do hold:
USDX daily:

USDX 4hr 

EURX daily

EURX 4hr 

TS signals: 
  • The S&P500 has already given a TS ‘long’ signal back on the 11th September.
  • I’m waiting on new TS signals on some of the currency pairs. Many of them are trading well outside their 4hr Bollinger bands after the FOMC moves so they may pause, or even pull back a bit, before any further continuation moves.

Thurs 19th Sept (7.10 am)

Indices and Ichimoku: It is looking like the Indices will end up being aligned for ‘risk on’ once the daily candles close. This is not until 9 am Sydney time on my Admiral charts. The huge drop on the USD has me wary of some possible pull back though, even if only to test the broken trend line or weekly 200 EMA:
USDX:

S&P500: I just want to re-cap the bullish signals for this index that were reported in earlier posts throughout this blog:

  • Daily candle closed above the Ichimoku Cloud, albeit only just, on 9th Sept.
  • I received a TS signal to ‘long’ on 11th Sept.
  • There was a bullish Tenkan/Kijun cross on 17th Sept.
I’m very happy with using my TS system and the Ichimoku for confirmation!

E/U: a little odd here with no new TS signal forming just yet. Perhaps the w/e German elections are keeping this cautious. I’d prefer to long from 1.34 if one does develop though. This area is a major S/R level and it is possible that price might test this broken region:

A/U: a signal is trying to form up but hasn’t quite fully…..just yet. I’m wondering though if 0.94 might get tested first:

A/J: no signal or break up here just yet:

E/A: channel surfing!

Cable: gave a new TS signal but I’d prefer to long from 1.6 

Kiwi: this signal is still going: 

U/J: no signal here either

Silver: no TS here yet

Gold: no TS here yet either

So, I’m waiting to see how the indices finish up for the day candle AND then will take new TS signals in line with that. Patience…..I’ve buckets of it!

Thurs 19th Sept (5.30 am)

Indices: FOMC got these moving for sure:
USDX: has plunged below the weekly support trend line. It might test this key level again though before further falls. Note that price is well outside the Bollinger bands so, some pause or retrace is more than likely:

EURX: needs to close above the monthly pivot to prove its point!


E/U: has rocketed up through the 1.34 and is taking on the 1.35. No new TS signal just yet though as FOMC occurred within the last 4hr candle time frame.

A/U: bolted up through the 0.94 to now test the 0.95: 

A/J: a little more measured:

Kiwi: this open TS signal has delivered as a result of FOMC: 

Cable: bolted up through the 1.60

U/J: feeling for the sinking USD index

Silver: loved the FOMC update

Gold: ditto

I’ll need my 7am candle to determine any new signals.
BTW: those Call options, posted in my Stocks:Sep page last night,…have all rocketed too! I’ve jumped in on a few of them now this morning though.

Wed 18th Sept (6.30 pm)

Cable: trading higher on data release:
A/U: higher too:

U/J: Yen strength pushing U/J down though:


BTW: I’ve noted some of the Options I’m stalking in my Stocks:Sept page.

Wed 18th Sept (2 pm)

Ascending triangles: there are a few ascending triangle, bullish continuation patterns about:
E/U:

A/U:

A/J:

G/U:

Kiwi:

Wed 18th Sept (1.40 pm)

Indices: Still a whole lot of nothing happening here ahead of FOMC:
USDX

EURX

Gold and Silver: these continue to slide after their H&S breakdowns. These two might struggle even if the USD continues to slide as traders chase yield/dividends etc:
Gold: back at the $1,300 level:

Silver:

Wed 18th Sept (8.50 am)

ADX: The ADX on many pairs is trading below the key 20 baseline level and, for many pairs too, the + and – DMI lines are also below this watermark level. This makes it much easier to see the start of any new trend. I’m suspecting that new trends, for possible ‘risk on’ or ‘risk off’ types of moves, might start once FOMC is out of the way. Thus, the ADX on many pairs will help to guide traders as to what the new trend, and trend strength, might evolve. I have shown a 4hr chart of the EUR/USD below to highlight this fact. The ADX/DMI levels are ‘arrowed’ in:
Note, also, how price on the E/U is trading below a key intersection of:
  • the major, monthly chart triangle trend line.
  • the psychological and S/R level of 1.34
  • a daily support trend line.

I suspect that this area is bound to be a reaction point, of some description, for FOMC.

Wed 18th Sept (6 am)

Kiwi: I missed this pair in my 5 am update. The TS signal from last week finally closed off yesterday after yielding up to 340 pips BUT a new TS signal came through on my 3 am candle earlier today. I’d be careful before FOMC though:

S&P500: A ‘risk’ running mate of the Kiwi has closed above the psychological S/R level of 1,700!

Wed 18th Sept (5 am)

Indices: The USDX is still bouncing along above the key support trend line and the EURX is doing much the same along the 109 level, wedged under the monthly pivot but above the weekly pivot:
USDX:

EURX:

S&P500: hasn’t drifted too far today:
E/U: trading just under the 1.34 and monthly chart triangle trend line:  

A/U: trading below the 0.94 resistance level: 
G/U: sitting just under the 1.6

U/J: within a triangle and still under the 100: 
Gold and Silver have just chopped sideways: 

As I have said before, I’m expecting very little to happen until at least after FOMC.

And yet, whilst it is’paint dry’ stuff leading up to FOMC, there are still a few little signals out there. The A/U and A/J look set to have their first decent bullish candle closes above the daily Ichimoku Cloud:
A/U:

A/J:

Tuesday 17th Sept (4.45 pm)

USDX: still looking a bit heavy above support on the lead up to FOMC:

EURX: going nowhere slowly!

BTW: I’ve been reviewing stocks today, given the quiet on the currency front, and have added a few more ideas to my Stocks:Sept page.


Tuesday 17th Sept (2.15 pm)

Not a whole lot happening on the Currency front so I’ve been reviewing stocks and have added a few more to my Stocks:Sept page.

Tuesday 17th Sept (11 am)
Not much happening atm:
E/U:

E/J: now this is what I call ‘tension’! Check out the Bollinger bands!

A/U: quiet ahead of data: 


Tuesday 17th Sept (8.30 am)

S&P500: the bullish Tenkan/Kijun cross has evolved on the S&P500 daily Ichimoku chart. The ‘shooting star’ style candle suggests some possible reversal, or maybe just a pull back, could be in store though:

The standard chart shows price still trading above key support. FOMC could change all of this so care is needed!

Tuesday 17th Sept (5.45 am)

There was a bit of a drift back last night in a gap fill kind of move. I wouldn’t really be expecting any new and major trends to form up this week before FOMC though anyway, even though there is some key Euro, AUD and GBP ‘red flag’ data out later today!
S&P500: drifted back a bit:
USDX: has bounced a little of support. Not surprising as gaps do often tend to fill anyway. FOMC could send this hurtling in either direction from here so great care is needed with ANY trading:
EURX: this has simply chopped sideways: 


Indices and Ichimoku: The USDX is trading under the Cloud on the 4hr and daily time frames. This supports a ‘risk on’ sentiment. The EURX is trading above the Cloud on the 4hr BUT in the Cloud on the daily so is not fully supportive of any ‘risk on’ move just yet:

Kiwi: this signal looks set to close after yielding up to 330 pips!

Cable: this signal closed too after gapping up yesterday. The 1.6 will be strong resistance:


E/U: is chopping around under a key S/R region. This region is formed up by the 1.34 psychological level and the major triangle trend line on the monthly chart: 

E/J: a classic triangle pattern here forming up around the key 132 level: 

A/U: the TS signal didn’t evolve and there was some selling at the 0.94 area.

A/J: I’ve adjusted the triangle trend lines here to reflect latest S/R: 
U/J: ditto here:
E/A: still channel bound: 
Gold and Silver: have continued to chop around under their H&S breakdowns:

Monday 16th September (9 pm)

USDX: this is still holding above the strong weekly support trend line:

A/U: I almost have a TS signal to long the A/U. The 0.94 is looming and will most likely offer some resistance though. many traders will short from there:
I have been noting in my w/e updates, since the respect of the ‘double bottom’ here, that the 0.97 is a likely target for any continued bullish momentum. The 0.97 is the intersection of the 50% fib pull back, daily and weekly 200 EMA:
Signals on the A/J and E/A are close too. The 11 pm candle may offer these up.

AUD/NZD: this signal has closed off after giving very little:

Monday 16th September (4 pm)

Not much happening after the big moves from market open. I don’t have any new TS signals.
USDX: this is holding above support for now. I don’t expect too much more to happen here until after FOMC:

Monday 16th September (11 am)


No new TS signals on my 11 am candle close!

E/U Ichimoku: this post needs to be read in conjunction with the 10.25 am E/U post. The E/U is starting to form up rather bullish looking prints on the Ichimoku charts. Price is trading above the Kumo on the 4hr, daily and weekly charts and is just under the Kumo on the monthly chart:
E/U monthly: Tenkan and Kijun lines fusing together. Look out for any bullish cross over and move up through the Kumo:

E/U weekly:  There has been a recent Tenkan/ Kijun lines bullish cross over:

E/U daily: above the Kumo: 

E/U 4hr : ditto

Monday 16th September (10.25 am)

E/U: this pair is being lifted mostly due to USD weakness. There has been a gap at market open today and care is needed as these gaps often, but not always, fill. I do note that this gap has seen price lift to now trade just under the major, monthly-chart triangle trend line. I have had this triangle in for over a year now and it is a major feature on the E/U chart. Also note how this trend line is very close to intersecting with another key psychological and S/R level of 1.34:

I’m wary with ECB news later today and FOMC on Wednesday BUT a safe to way to play any continued bullish momentum, post FOMC, might be to look for a close and hold above the monthly trend line and 1.34 area and, then, to long from there.

Monday 16th September (10.10 am)

A new ‘red flag’ news item has just been added to today’s calendar: ECB’s ‘Super Mario’ to speak @ 6 pm Sydney time.

Monday 16th September (9.45 am)

I had stressed in my w/e write up to look for any positive sentiment following on from the Syrian weapons deal. Check out the S&P500 in pre-market trade. Now gaps often close so care is needed here, especially in FOMC week:
The S&P500 made a bullish close to last week when it closed above the key 1,685 level. 

S&P500 Ichimoku: There is the beginning print of a new bullish Tenkan/Kijun cross on the S&P500 Ichimoku chart BUT we need to see this daily candle close first to confirm this. This cross has occurred within the Kumo so is not considered as strong a signal as a cross from above the Kumo. The most recent bullish cross came below the Kumo though and that delivered fairly handsomely.

USDX: the H&S pattern is looking more formed now. Note how price has bounced from the region of major support though!

EURX: I’d like to see this close above the monthly pivot: