Trading Week 21/10/13

Sat Oct 26th (5.20 am)

We have bush fires ravaging our state at the moment and there is a much touted warning and status update of ‘watch and act’. I’m following the same mantra here with Ichimoku alignment and my E/U trade! The E/U has crawled back above the 1.38 and I’m watching to see where it closes for the w/e. I still consider that a w/e close above 1.38 might help it visit the 1.40 region next week:
E/U:

U/J: the 97 held.

S&P500: ticked a bit higher. Are the U/J and S&P500 back in positive correlation now?

USDX: didn’t make any gains overnight and that isn’t looking too good for the index. Note the vicious Bollinger bands!

EURX: ‘quiet achiever’ stuff!

AUD/NZD: the ‘no brainer’ trade of the week for sure. A close above the key S/R of 1.145 was the clue. The TS signal has yielded up to 100 pips. The trend line break yielded 120 pips!



EUR/AUD: this signal is still open but going nowhere quickly!

Fri Oct 25th (8.50 pm)

E/U: struggling a little:
U/J: may have found support at 97:


Fri Oct 25th (5.30 pm)

Kiwi: Price is still in a bullish descending wedge BUT I’ve just noticed that this is down at the 78.6 % fib level following the last move up. This is also near the 4hr 200 EMA and psychological 0.83 whole number level so, there’s a bit of support. A breach of this would be rather bearish:
A/J: a similar pattern here with support:

A/U: similar too:

Fri Oct 25th (3.45 pm)

Indices: the USDX is sliding down towards major support:
USDX price is approaching the neck line of a possible major double top from the monthly charts:
EURX: keeps grinding higher:
E/U: trading above the key 1.38:
I still see the 1.40 level as a possible target if price can escape the 1.38 level and the 61,8% fib. The 1.40 level is the region of the weekly/monthly bear trend line:
Note that this monthly chart bear triangle trend line is also the ‘neck line’ of a possible major, monthly chart inverse H&S pattern!

The 1.40 area is also the region of the top of the Ichimoku monthly Cloud. A break up through this level would place the E/U above the Cloud on the 4hr, daily, weekly and monthly chart time frames:



EUR/AUD: still positive:

 
AUD/NZD: higher too:
A/U: looking bullish to me but I seem to be the only one thinking this!

A/J: ditto;

Kiwi: ditto here too:

U/J: testing support:

Fri Oct 25th (8.15 am)

E/U: The E/U daily candle closed at 1.38001. Not hugely inspiring but, still, a close above 1.38! The 4hr chart below shows price still hanging in just above there for now:
The weekly chart shows that price is up just under the 61.8% fib pull back from the last major move down so, this might cause some grief. I still see the 1.40 level as the next major target though if the bullish momentum continues:
Remember, the 1.40 level is the region of the weekly/monthly chart bear trend line (see above) and the top of the monthly Ichimoku Cloud:

Fri Oct 25th (5.45 am)
Forgot to post these earlier:

Cable: double top not avoided just yet. Still hovering below major resistance:
A/J: a bullish wedge here too like for the A/U and Kiwi?

Fri Oct 25th (5.35 am)

Ichimoku Alignment: The Ichimoku alignment for ‘risk on’ kicked in on Thursday 17th October. Since then, the E/U has risen by around 260 pips. The charts are still aligned for ‘risk on’ at this stage:

Fri Oct 25th (5 am)

Indices: 
USDX: edging down closer to major support:

EURX: holding up for now. I still would expect this to pull back though to test the broken trend line:

All the TS signals are positive:
E/U: has made a 4 hr close above the key 1.38. Look for a daily close above this and, if so, then I think 1.40 will be the next stop:

EUR/AUD: doesn’t interest me BUT it has yielded up to 90 pips:

AUD/NZD: holding above key 1.145 support:

U/J 4hr: hovering above support and no current momentum for down movement:

U/J daily:

Kiwi: might be a bullish descending wedge forming here. These seem to be reliable patterns:
A/U: might be one forming here too. If so, the AUD/NZD might struggle:

Thurs 24th Oct (8.15 pm)

E/J: this is a pair that I am stalking at the moment as it lurks under the key 135 S/R level:
The Ichimoku charts are interesting here too. Price is above the Cloud on the 4hr, daily and weekly charts BUT is getting very close to the upper edge of the Cloud on the monthly chart now as well:

Thurs 24th Oct (8 pm)
S&P500: this is up in pre-market:

Gold daily: the bullish wedge break has held so far:


Silver daily: ditto here:

AUD/NZD: this signal is still limping along but a bullish end of week hold above 1.145 needs to be watched for:

EUR/AUD: this signal is ok for now:

E/U: no close above the 1.38 yet. It may not evolve but…..I’m watching:


U/J: Is that a bullish ‘inverted hammer’ just now on the U/J? Looks like it to me:

Thurs 24th Oct (6.50 pm)

E/U: Some weaker than expected Euro data has slowed the E/U. This may not break the 1.38. There is US data due out later tonight and this might determine the direction of the USD and, thus, of this pair:

Thurs 24th Oct (6.15 pm)

USDX: I discussed over the w/e how this index on the monthly chart was getting down close to the neck line region of a possible major ‘double top’ formation. This neck line corresponds roughly to the 38.2% fib level of the pull back from the last major down move. Price is only about 30 pips above this level now and, one to watch. A break below this region would be very bearish:
This neck line region corresponds to the bottom of the monthly Ichimoku Cloud too! Confluence! A break and hold below this monthly Cloud would put the USDX below the Ichimoku Cloud on the 4hr, daily weekly and monthly time frame!

 

Thurs 24th Oct (5.40 pm)

E/U: Woo Hoooooo! I wrote a few weeks ago about the markets being in a ‘waiting for Sue’ mode. Well, I think Sue might have arrived! The 1.38 level is being tested as I type and IF price breaks and holds above this level then, as mentioned earlier, I think then that 1.40 will be the next main port of call. The current TS signal has yielded up to 100 pips:

I am still long the E/U from the previous signal though and my trade is up 260 pips:

 
E/J: this pair is heading back to the key 135 level and it looks like it might be forming up into a TS signal now this time as well. The 135 break earlier in the week didn’t come with a TS signal so….I’m stalking this pair as well:

Remember, a break and hold above the 135 would suggest to me that a move up to the 140 (61.8% fib) could be on the cards:

EUR/AUD: This signal is limping but I’m not interested in cross pairs as much at the moment given the state of the EURX and USDX indices. I see this as a time that is best to trade the direct pairs.
U/J: the slide here has stalled for now:
BTW: Watch your calendar…lots of data tonight.

Thurs 24th Oct (2.40 pm)

It is a much more peaceful Asian session today.
E/U: looks like it wants to take on the 1.38.
I would not be surprised to see this pair head to the 1.40 level IF there is a break and hold above the 1.38 level. The 1.40 level is the region of the major monthly triangle trend line and, also, the top edge of the Ichimoku monthly Cloud:
Note how there has been a bullish Tenkan/Kijun cross on the E/U monthly chart. This is deemed a weak signal as it is positioned below the Cloud and the angles aren’t great but, still, a cross is a cross and worth noting. Remember, too, that the E/U is trading ABOVE the Cloud on the hr, 4hr, daily and weekly time frames. A move up and out of the monthly Cloud would be a very bullish signal.

Thurs 24th Oct (6.20 am)

E/U continued: the weekly chart shows that the 1.38 is a another key S/R level. You can also how the major monthly trend line is not too far above price:

Thurs 24th Oct (6 am)

Indices: just chopping sideways. I actually thought I’d wake to see the EURX down and the USDX back up. Not so:
USDX:

EURX:

S&P500: having an indecision style ‘inside candle’ day:
E/U: hovering under the 1.38:

A/U: down but no TS signal:

Cable daily: this pair looks like there could be a ‘double top’ trying to form on the daily chart. 4hr too messy. That major, monthly chart trend line is just above price and seems to be cramping its style a bit:
U/J: this pair ran the FX show yesterday. price found some support at the daily trend line that obviously lots of others have in place as well. A breach of this would be bearish and would probably continue to drag other Yen crosses with it so, this needs watching as does the Nikkei today:

 

EUR/AUD: this gave a new TS signal off my 4 am candle:


AUD/NZD: this is still above the key 1.145 and it also gave a signal at 8pm last night that I missed:

Wed 23rd Oct (8.45 pm)

Cable: this closed too for a loss of 90:


Wed 23rd Oct (5.30 pm)

EURX: I would not be surprised to see this pull back to test the broken trend line of the monthly 200 EMA.
E/U: Thus, we could see a pull back on a number of pairs. The E/U could easily pull back to test the whole number psychological level of 1.37, or even the 1.365, before making any further gains:

Wed 23rd Oct (3.40 pm)

A/U: this signal has been wiped out by the yen moves:
 

Wed 23rd Oct (3 pm)
U/J: this pair is tumbling and dragging other Yen pairs with it. I closed my long E/J trade for a loss:

Wed 23rd Oct (12.10 pm)

A/U: I have had a TS signal on the A/U:
 
Cable: a TS signal here now too:


AUD/NZD:  no TS signal here yet BUT it has closed above the key 1.145 level, probably best seen on the daily chart:

Wed 23rd Oct (11 am)

Swissie: This pair has been down testing a major weekly chart support trend line for the last few weeks. Price broke below this level again late last week and gave a new TS signal. This move did not get going and the signal only yielded about 40 pips or so before closing off. Price has not recovered back above support though and has subsequently continued to fall with the USD weakness. It is currently about 120 pips below the support trend line and, with hindsight, would have been a trade that was better taken just from the support trend line break. There doesn’t seem to be much support below this weekly trend line now either other than possible Fib levels:

Wed 23rd Oct (9.30 am)

E/J: I didn’t ever get a clean TS signal with this latest move upwards. Today’s close above the 135 level seems quite bullish to me though and may pave the way for a further move up to the 61.8% fib retrace level at around 140. Thus, I have placed a technical trade here to LONG from 135 with a stop at 134.50 and a take profit at 140:

Wed 23rd Oct (7 am)

Indices: NFP fueled data speculation that QE easing won’t be resuming anytime soon. This has resulted in the USD falling heavily:
USDX:

EURX:

This is how the EURX weekly chart is looking at the moment. A hold above the monthly 200 EMA for the week would be a major development:
S&P500: stocks rallied with the weaker USD. There was another great SPY tradining opportunity last night.
S&P500 Ichimoku: This indicator gave a strong buy signal on the index after yesterdays close and was spot on the money!
Daily chart: there was a TS long signal on the S&P500 after Friday’s candle close. I have found that when Ichimoku and TS overlap there tends to be good reliability!
Gold: the bullish wedge break is continuing and a TS daily chart signal is building:

Silver: ditto here

 
E/U: I had a new TS signal on the midnight candle. Price is way outside the Bollinger bands now though. An order to long back down at 1.37 might work for traders wanting to trade this pair to the up side:

I am still long on the E/U and up 230 pips:

E/J: No new TS signal but a break and hold above the 135 might be a reasonable technical trade:
A/U: no signal just yet:
A/J: grinding higher:
Cable: the previous short signal never got going and closed for -10 pips. There has been a bullish wedge break but no new TS just yet:

Kiwi:  There has been a bullish wedge break but no new TS just yet:

U/J: previous long closed for -50. I did advise that I would not have taken either the Cable or U/J new signals as they were before NFP.


Tue 22nd Oct (8.50 pm)
Indices: paused ahead of NFP:
USDX:

EURX:

E/U: Bollinger bands clamping down hard here:

A/U: still within a flag:

G/U: I’ve adjusted the flag trend lines here but not a lot happening:

Kiwi:

U/J:


AUD/NZD: the 1.145 is getting closer!

Tue 23rd Oct (4 pm)
I have had two TS signals on my 4pm candle BUT I’d be waiting until after NFP before taking any new trades!
U/J:

Cable: 


Tue 23rd Oct (12 noon)

S&P500: there has been a bullish Tenkan/Kijun cross on the S&P500 daily Ichimoku chart after the market closed today. This signal is deemed a ‘strong’ signal as it occurred above the Ichimoku Cloud:
There is important US NFP data out tonight and, as discussed in Dean Malone’s video (link below), this may tip the RORO balance but this bullish stock signal needs to be noted.
BTW: I actually had a TS signal to LONG the S&P500 after Friday’s daily close.


Tue 23rd Oct (10.30 am)
Dean Malone’s take on NFP and the E/U and Cable.

Tue 23rd Oct (8.45 am)
I have updated my Aussie Stocks page.

Tue 23rd Oct (8.45 am)

USDX: this is what waiting for today’s NFP looks like. I’m not expecting much to happen anywhere today until this data is out:



Tues 23rd Oct (8.25 am)

UJ: no TS signal evolved.
Not much happening.

I’ve got a few Option trades to write up so will get on to that. I sold some X and INTC Puts and some ABX calls this morning.

We 23rd Oct (5.30 am)

Indices: in a bit of a holding pattern. The EURX is still above the monthly 200 EMA S/R level though!
USDX:

EURX:

S&P500: choppy

E/U: till above the 1.365 but TS signal closed for 80. I’m still long here though.

E/J: grinding higher:

A/U: hovering under 0.97 and TS signal also closed after giving 190 pips. Possible bull flag? Watch for trend line breaks:
A/J: pausing a bit after a 340 pip wedge breakout:

G/U:  TS signal also closed after giving 110 pips. Possible bull flag? Watch for trend line breaks:

Kiwi:  Possible bull flag? Watch for trend line breaks:

U/J: trying to give a new TS long signal. Need the 8am candle:
Swissie: still looking heavy:
AUD/NZD: getting up closer to key S/R of 1.145:
Silver: grinding higher:

Gold: not too sure where it wants to go. Watching for any clean break of the 4 hr 200 EMA:

 
The few ‘flags’ around suggest a pause and wait and see approach.
 

Tuesday 22nd Oct (9.20 pm)

Data: much of the US data that was scheduled for release on Monday has been shifted to later in the week (compared to when I posted my w/e notes that is!). There is only ‘home sales’ data scheduled now for Monday.
 
Indices: the USDX is trying to retrace a bit. Good luck there dude!

EURX: this is still above the monthly 200 EMA atm

E/U: treading water above the 1.365 for now:

A/U: hovering under the 0.97

U/J: Nikkei was up today….so too the U/J:
Swissie: this TS short signal has closed off but price still looks heavy:
Not a whole lot happening. Waiting for some direction.


Monday 21st October (5.30 pm)

It’s been a bit quiet today.

I’m at a trading meeting for the evening and will update later.