Trading Week 24/06/13

Friday 28th (8.30 am) Lone Pine, Death Valley

Stocks: The S&P500 still has some work to do. It is still below the daily trend line and below the Ichimoku Cloud. These resistance areas need to be broken to allow for any possible bullish continuation.

I head to Yosemite today so won’t be updating much, if at all, for the next couple of days.

Friday 28th (6.30 am) Lone Pine, Death Valley

The indices still seem to be battling it out to see who is going to reign in the next momentum move. The USDX seems to be stalling at the monthly pivot and is still in its daily Ichimoku Cloud.

EURX: I’ve relaxed the lower trend line here to reflect latest support. This is now breaking up from its Cloud but has yet to have a clear daily Close out of the Cloud:

Thurs 27th (8 am) Las Vegas

S&P500: Stocks are trading up this morning. The S&P500 is back above the 1,600 and the Dow is above the 15,000 level. Will these hold? I don’t know but if the fed keep muttering about continued easing and bond buying, as per comments today, then the USD might fall thereby helping to boost stocks and….even Gold.
S&P500 daily: price is back to testing the previously broken trend line. This often happens and I’ll be watching to see if it can keep a lid on gains:


S&P500 Ichimoku: price is back in the Cloud but no bullish Tenkan/Kijun cross just yet: 

S&P500 weekly:  The bears have been saying that the sky is about to fall in. This may well happen but I’m not seeing signs of much bearish follow through just yet. The weekly flag pattern is holding for now and I’ll continue to be guided by trend line breaks here:

Gold: this is almost back down at the 61.8% fib level from the last major swing high. So, it might be getting ready to turn back up from here. A falling USD would help this along. Gold is close to testing the $1,200 mark and this is not too far from the 61.8% fib level. Confluence!:
We are about to be Leaving Las Vegas! Hopefully in better condition than Nicolas Cage from the movie of the same name!

Thurs 27th (6.30 am) Las Vegas

The indices are still in limbo. Both the EURX and USDX are trapped in their daily Ichimoku Clouds, So what you say? Well, I say this is a clear indication that there is no overall or dominant trend. So, no trend….no trend trading.:

Stocks: are up in pre-market though:

Wed 26th 10.30 pm Las Vegas
The USDX has slipped back below the daily Cloud:

EURX: still in the Cloud

Most of the pairs still seem to be at the mercy of the USD and the direction that it will eventually decide to take.

E/U: still holding up

A/U: having a rally on political grounds most likely:

G/U: choppy:

U/J: tied to the USDX


Wed 26th 6 pm Las Vegas

Both indices are embedded in their daily Ichimoku Clouds. They will be choppy until they sort out this tussle of which one is set to rally:

I reckon it’s gambling trying to predict which way momentum will head from here; either ‘risk on’ or ‘risk off’. I’m in Las Vegas at the moment and I think the tables and slot machines would be a safer bet here! I head to Death Valley tomorrow.

Wed 26th 7 am Las Vegas

It’s all about the USD at the moment. This is still stuck at the 61.8% fib level from the last swing high back in mid 2010. This is a MAJOR level.
USDX:

Note how the USDX has not been able to get over the Cloud

EURX: looking bearish still BUT this is at the mercy of the USD. Falls on the USD will most likely give this a bounce:

E/U: going nowhere….fast

A/U: happy!

U/J: flat

S&P500: a great SPY trade here from the 30 min charts but I’m too late here on the west coast and heading to the Grand Canyon now:

S&P500 weekly: this could still be seen as a possible ‘bull flag’. I’d be waiting to take shorts just at the moment. It all hinges on the USD and sentiment there:

Tuesday 25th (11 pm)

The EURX is looking a bit bearish as it stays below the 108.5 and moves into the Cloud. the USDX is still below its Cloud though too:
EURX

 USDX

E/U: still holding up for the time being

A/U: ditto here

S&P500: same here too

I still think it is still anyone’s guess if the next major move will be up or down. The Ichimoku Clouds seem to be drifting towards a ‘risk off’ alignment BUT trading instruments continue to seem reluctant to head that way.
I’m out all day on Wednesday 26th but will update if I can.


Tuesday 25th (8.20am)

The indices are shifting towards a ‘risk off’ alignment now. Both the EURX and USDX are butting up against their respective daily Clouds. The EURX daily Cloud is thicker so may offer greater support than any resistance the USDX daily Cloud can offer:
USDX

 EURX

Stocks: The S&P500 is trading up today and may be holding up sentiment across the currencies. Note the weekly chart flag pattern that is still holding price in:

I don’t have any new TS signals yet with all this choppiness. 

I am travelling from LA to Vegas today so will be out of action.

Monday 25th (10.20am)

Indices:The EURX has bounced off the daily support trend line that seems to be forming a bullish ascending triangle:

USDX: this is really struggling to break up and free from the 82.59 level. This is a major S/R level as it is the 61.8% fib level from the last major swing high back in mid 2010:

Monday 25th (8.15am)

Many pairs are trading in channels and breaks of these trend lines might help decide the next major directional move. I’m also keeping an eye on the daily Clouds for both indices.


E/U

A/U

G/U

U/J


Monday 25th (7.45 am)

The indices have shifted towards ‘risk off’ with both the EURX and USDX nudging their daily Ichimoku Clouds:
USDX

EURX 


EURX 4hr: has bounced off a daily support trend line….for now!

USDX 4hr: some reversal candle patterns and it seems to be stalling. For how long though? That is the BIG question:

Stocks: are down at the moment:

E/U: seems reluctant to shift:

A/U: not moving too far below the 0.92. I find it strange that this is holding whilst stocks fall:

Sunday 23rd June (LA 9.30 pm)

The markets have been open across Asia but without too much movement so far. The EURX is still above its Cloud and the USDX is still below its Cloud BUT….. both only just! There could be a shift back to traditional style ‘risk off’ here and I’m on the lookout for this:

S&P500: Price action is certainly bearish with a daily trend line broken and price below the daily Ichimoku Cloud:

I really would like to see a bearish break down here on the weekly chart though before getting too worked up about a wider sell off. This current pattern is looking somewhat familiar…so far at least: 
I’ll happily ‘go with the flow’ ……. once it emerges though.