Trading Week 25/03/13

Good Friday 29th (11.20 am)

The E/U signal has closed off now too:
The E/G is the only signal still open and limping along:

Thursday 28th (9.20 pm)

There seems to be a shift to ‘risk on’ creeping in:
Now, call me cynical……. whatever……. I don’t care BUT I’ve seen this before on a holiday w/e. The markets, in the face of much adversity, trade up. It’s as if no one wants to go in to a long w/e feeling down! We shall see.

Thursday 28th (5.40 pm)

Asian markets sold off on some Chinese market concerns and Italy is back in the spot light BUT it seems that European session is seeing some bias towards ‘risk on’ at this early stage. Cypriot Banks open again today so that may trigger some action.
EURX Daily Ichimoku: both the USDX and EURX charts are laigned for ‘risk off’ on the daily and 4hr time frames. They are not keen to get going though; the ‘Bernanke Put’ and the constant drip feed of encouraging data are working against this momentum.

E/U 


The E/A trade signal has closed off now:

BTW: I have updated my Stocks: Triangle page.

Thursday 28th (12.30 pm)

Not much happening just yet:

Thursday 28th (10.30 am)

E/U: I’m not sure whether this quiet here is just a pause before the next major move down. Price might just be simply retracing to test the broken trend line before falling further. I’m cautious given  that the other pairs aren’t racing towards risk off just yet. The E/U is currently about 150 pips above a major support trend line at the 1.26220 level. This support trend line can be clearly seen on the daily and weekly charts and it formed the ‘shoulder’ in my inverse H&S pattern:
E/U 4hr

E/U daily

E/U weekly

Thursday 28th (7.10 am)

Cable: I’ve relaxed the bottom trend line to reflect the latest support….given the other support was broken without momentum. I also note that the current print of the monthly candle is still a reversal style long legged Doji. So, I’m keeping an open mind here:
G/U 4hr

G/U monthly

Thursday 28th (6.30 am)

Risk off has been the major mood of the day but some positive US data has buoyed matters somewhat. The USDX has moved up and out from its flag pattern and the EURX has moved down and out from its flag:
USDX

EURX

EURX Cloud: price remains below the Cloud. All index charts are in alignment for ‘risk off’:

The E/U signal got going:

A few pairs have made trend line breaks but not produced TS signals. They may still evolve though:

The E/J has had a daily trend line break but no signal:

The A/U has had a daily trend line break but no signal:  

The G/U has had a daily trend line break but no signal:  
The E/A signal is up:

 The E/G is up too:

Gold has been choppy but note the significance of the monthly pivot! 

Stocks were down on Euro glum but then bounced on the good data:

The Kiwi refuses to fall too far as well:
I was in the E/U after the signal but it bounced sideways for ages so I baled. So, I’m not a happy camper now that it has moved almost 100 pips!

Wednesday 27th (9 pm)

Maybe the ‘risk off’ moves are just starting now!
EURX

E/U

E/J
A/U

G/U

Kiwi 
S&P500

Wednesday 27th (7.30 pm)

I noted earlier how the indices are aligned towards ‘risk off’. Well, so far, most pairs have been reluctant to join any ‘risk off’ party. This has been the case of late; most pairs seem to prefer a ‘risk on’ bias. 
So…..I’m being quite cautious here and I’ll tell you why. The EURX weekly chart is now almost back down near the major support level of the weekly bull trend line. We have the Dutch Finance Minister to thank for this:
This trend line could prove to be a difficult level to break. It may even prove to be a turning point back towards ‘risk on’. Now, given the global situation, I find this all rather hard to believe BUT you have to trade what you see. Right now I see the E/U holding up pretty well considering all that has been thrown at it this week. I also note that it wouldn’t take much of a move for the 4hr EURX and USDX index charts to flip back towards ‘risk on’. 
I actually think it would be best to wait to see whether this EURX weekly trend line holds, or fails, before taking any new positions. Just my 2 cents worth. I’ll trade either way BUT I want a clear picture first.

PS: I do note however that there are about 180 pips between current EURX levels and the weekly support trend line. So, we could still see some ‘risk off’ movement down to that level before any possible reversal.

Wednesday 27th (6.30 pm)

This chart kind of sums things up for the moment:
BTW: I have updated my Stocks:March page about one stock; Avon Products AVP. I’ll add some more updates later on too.

Wednesday 27th (2.30 pm)

The indices are aligned for ‘risk off’ or, for bearish Euro etc and bullish USD:
USDX: both the daily and 4hr chart show price action above the Cloud:

EURX: both the daily and 4hr show price action below the Cloud: 

Previous periods of such alignment have displayed long trending moves on various pairs but these moves have not appeared, for the time being at least.
I’m on the lookout for these moves and signals though.

A/U: I’ve got a bull support trend line in here now. I’ll be watching this level in case there is any widespread move to ‘risk off’ trading:

USDX: The bull flag pattern is currently being tested here:

Wednesday 27th (10.50 am)

Hmmmm…is this one almighty huge Bear Flag on the daily chart of the cable?

The upper and lower flag boundaries here will be key. A break up might confirm the reversal I was musing about in my w/e updates. A break down would suggest continuation of the bear trend.

Wednesday 27th (10.40 am)

There isn’t a whole lot happening. I’m waiting to see if the EURX holds below the daily Cloud:

The Yen pairs might be starting to march on a bit though now.

It may stay relatively quiet now until after the Easter break.

Wednesday 27th (6.15 am)

The Index charts are still setting up to be aligned for ‘risk off’ but this is not translating into market action. The EURX remains below the daily Cloud:

The USDX is struggling to move up: 

The EURX is struggling to get back above the 4 hr trend line: 

The A/U LONG signal continues to climb:

Kiwi: as does the Kiwi LONG signal

Stocks are up a bit too:

So, we have a mix of index alignment for ‘risk off’ but ‘risk on’ moves happening.
The signals from yesterday are mixed. Not surprising given they were for short Euro:
E/U

E/J

E/A

E/G

Tuesday 26th (9.10 pm)

These markets are being driven by news. It is anyone’s guess as to what item will drive the E/U tonight:

Tuesday 26th (8.30 pm)

I’m watching to see if the EURX holds below the daily Cloud. If so, then we have both indices, on the daily and 4hr time frame, aligned for ‘risk off’. There seems to be an overwhelming desire to trade ‘risk on’ though at the moment:

Tuesday 26th (6.30 pm)

There has been a shift to ‘risk on’ just now. I looked to see why and noted this:

Cyprus: ECB’s Couere says cyprus not a new model for europe

Written by 
March 26, 2013 at 07:27 GMT 
  • says Dijsselbloem was wrong
  • sees no risk of new turbulence in eurozone
  • better to keep cyprus banks closed while work is being done
EUR a little firmer at 1.2882 and 121.48

Tuesday 26th (6 pm)Tuesday 26th (6 pm)
There is more Cyprus news hitting the wires. from FX Live:

Cyprus: Piraeus banks says it expects to sign deal to take over cypriot banks in Greece by noon today

Written by 
March 26, 2013 at 06:21 GMT 

This could send the Euro back up. There is a bias for instruments to seemingly ‘want’ to trade ‘risk on’. I keep saying that trying to apply longer term technicals in a minefield of fundamentals, news and data is difficult at the moment. I’m still looking out for the 1.29 level on the E/U though.

Tuesday 26th (11.20 am)

The EURX has now closed out of the Cloud…Yeah! I would expect it to retrace a bit to test the Cloud though:

The E/U SHORT signal is still valid but I suspect it might re-test the 1.29 level, especially after such big moves from yesterday. I’m waiting to see that before shorting. I will also wait until closer to London open to see if there are any more dynamite comments to counter yesterdays from the Dutch Finance Minister. I would also be happier if I could see other pairs start to trade ‘risk off’:

Tuesday 26th (8.30 am)

USDX: looking at this index again there seem to be some support/resistance levels emerging:
USDX daily

USDX 4hr

Tuesday 26th (8.20 am)

A signal on the EUR/GBP has kicked in now too:
The risk now is for some further Euro remarks, trying to counter earlier comments, that could spike the Euro back up.

Tuesday 26th (7 am)

What did I say about trying to trade ‘technically’ through this ‘fundamental mine field’? 
It seems I missed some fireworks overnight:
http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2013/03/25/dijsselbloem-getting-a-lesson-in-choosing-words-carefully/
This caused huge moves in the Euro pairs and eased stocks. The USDX is back above the 82.59 level and the EURX has broken down from the 4hr flag pattern:

The EURX now looks set to close out and down from the daily Cloud. It is chopping around a bit at the moment so I’m waiting to see where it closes. This would put both indices in alignment for bearish Euro and bullish USD on the 4hr and daily time frame, a rare alignment: 
These moves could have been caught off the 30 min charts overnight:
E/U 30 min gave 150+ pips:

E/J 30 min gave 280 + pips:

These big moves have now triggered some signals on the Euro pairs from the 4hr charts too:
E/U:

E/J:

E/A:

The Aussie and Kiwi are still positive but I wonder for how long?
A/U:

Kiwi:

Monday 25th (9.45 pm)
The weekly 200 EMA is proving to be a key level for the EURX:

The E/U has re-tested the breakout trend line from the descending wedge pattern. It is currently ‘parked’ at the safety of the 1.3 S/R level:  

A/J: this might be building up for an attempt at the 100 level:

Monday 25th (8 pm)

No new signals. Just the A/U and Kiwi from last week:
A/U:

Kiwi:

EURX daily: this is telling me to ‘go and have a glass of wine…’ It is my birthday so…that’s what I’m gonna do!

Monday 25th (6.30 pm)

Ok so it seems the Euro party was short lived and now the hangover has arrived….along with some common sense. This Cyprus/Euro saga ain’t over:

These are challenging time for the Euro zone and could prove to be a real game changer. This article from the WP sums it up quite clearly:
http://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2013/03/25/commentary/cyprus-mess-portends-unsafe-world-for-deposits/#.UU_gARfilF8
Trying to deploy technical strategies for longer term trend trading during these murky fundamental waters is nigh on impossible.

Monday 25th (4.20 pm)

No full signal yet on the E/U…or others…momentum might pick up when Europe comes on line.

Monday 25th (3 pm)

I’ve been out all day. Have come home to see some Euro excitement but, really, what’s to get excited about!!!!! The EURX is trading up but still hasn’t cleared the flag pattern OR the daily Cloud so…I’m waiting:

E/U: this has broken up and out from the descending wedge but has yet to give a clear TS signal. The 4pm candle may deliver a signal. I’m wary though with the state of the EURX:


A/U: this signal is still positive:

Kiwi: this signal is positive too

There isn’t much of a ‘risk on’ party yet. No other signals yet but they might form if Europe gets behind these preliminary moves.