Trading Week 29/07/13

Friday 2nd Aug (4.30 pm)
Silver and Gold: I have had a triangle break and a new TS signal to short on both of these metals. Positive US data and a stronger USD might be the cause:


Friday 2nd Aug (11.25 am)
E/U: I have had a TS signal to short the E/U. I’d still prefer the flag to break downwards first though.

Friday 2nd Aug (9.45 am)
E/U: no TS signal to short just yet. Also, a ‘flag’ pattern seems to be forming. Trend line breaks will help here perhaps:

Friday 2nd Aug (7.25 am)
The USD has continued its bounce overnight but the EURX is holding up and out of its trading channel for now at least:


S&P500: The first day of the trading month is often bullish for stocks and this was again the case for the S&P500

S&P500 weekly: I’m watching to see if stocks can close above the trend line. This might suggest a ‘double top’ has been avoided:

Currencies have traded ‘risk off’ overnight, opposite to stocks, due to the strength of the USD. The rise in the USD has dismantled my index alignment now too.
E/U: trying to form a new TS short

A/U: TS signal now at 290 pips

A/J: testing the broken S/R level of 0.89

G/U:TS signal up 200 pips

E/A: still going for now

U/J: gave a new TS signal on my 11pm candle

 G/A: still going but only just:

Kiwi: the handle is still forming may not end up yielding the ‘Cup and handle’

Thursday 1st Aug (5.20 pm) Sydney!
USDX: this index is pushing back up into its Ichimoku Cloud on the 4hr and daily time frame. ‘Risk on’ alignment may not hold. This has been the pattern for months now. Rare periods of alignment and, then, it does not hold:

Thursday 1st Aug (3.50 pm) Sydney!
The E/U is back below the weekly 200 EMA ahead of the ECB conference:

A/J: check out the reversal candle on the A/J though:

Thursday 1st Aug (7.40 am) Canberra
There is some Chinese PMI data out in a few hours that may or may not help the poor AUD. It’s getting hit at the moment.

I travel back to Sydney soon so will update later today.

Thursday 1st Aug (6.20 am) Canberra
The USD weakened overnight after the FED commented they will continue with QE as needed. This means that the ‘risk on’ alignment has held.
USDX: back below a key S/R level now

EURX: has made a bullish trading channel break

S&P500: is a bit confused by it all..

Kiwi: I’m posting this first as the rare, but interesting, chart pattern of a bullish ‘Cup and Handle’ seems to be forming up. A close back above the 0.80 level would be quite bullish:

E/U: a close above the weekly 200 EMA would be a bullish signal in itself:

E/J: back above the 130 level

A/U: a daily, and then weekly, close below the 0.90 level would be quite bearish. The TS signal has given 250 pips!

A/J: the triangle break alone has yielded 250 pips.

 EUR/AUD: The TS signal has given 400 pips!

G/U: The TS signal has given 150 pips!

U/J daily: looks bearish to me!

G/A: The TS signal has given 80 pips:

 AUD/NZD: a bearish channel break!

Wednesday 31st July Canberra (9.40 pm)
Maybe FOMC will get these two moving out of their ranges:


The indices are still aligned for ‘risk on’ but FOMC and/or NFP news will dictate whether that alignment holds.

Wednesday 31st July Canberra (7 am)
It’s the ‘same old same old’…mixed data, concerns about growth and looming FOMC jitters have kept markets choppy. The indices are still fairly flat. In fact, if it wasn’t for the Aussie RBA input there might not have been much at all over the last 24 hrs:

EURX: this is edging towards the upper trend line of the channel pattern though!

S&P500: choppy

AUD land: I had mentioned over the w/e how the A/U and A/J chart patterns could be shaping up into bear flags and that it was important to watch for trend line breaks. Well, for the A/U, price is still bound by the trend lines and the bear flag pattern is looking like a higher possibility now:

A/U 4hr: the TS signal has given up to 150 pips

A/U daily

A/J: this has had a ‘bear flag’ break now though. A daily close below the 0.89 would be a very bearish signal and I’d be looking to see if it closes the week below this key level:
A/J 4 hr

A/J daily:

EUR/AUD: this has had a channel break:
E/A 4hr: the TS signal has given up to 200 pips
E/A daily:

Kiwi: this still looks to be shaping up into a bullish ‘cup and handle’ pattern:
Kiwi 4 hr

Kiwi daily

GBP/AUD: this TS signal and channel break has given 100 pips so far:

U/J: a triangle break here too? 
U/J 4hr

U/J daily:

GBP/AUD: not doing much

Tuesday 30th July (5 pm) Canberra
I’m back in Canberra now and it seems my TS system is a better judge than I am! The A/U signal is way up as it the EUR/AUD signal. It’s all been about the AUD today and the RBA comments suggesting more rates cuts might be in store:

Indices: these are still trading fairly flat ahead of FOMC:


A/U: TS signal up 150 pips

EUR/AUD: up around 200 pips:

GBP/AUD: gave a TS signal and triangle break too whilst I was in flight:

A/J: this is under a lot of pressure and back down at a major S/R level at 0.89:
A/J daily

A/J 4hr

E/U: not giving up its weekly 200 EMA spot just yet:

G/U: has given a new TS signal and has also had a trend channel break:

Silver under pressure:

Gold a bit too:

Tuesday 30th July (9.10 am) Adelaide
Some Aussie weakness is boosting the GBP/AUD:

A/U: down through the 0.92 but there is some important red flag AUD news due out later:

Silver and Gold are drifting lower:


E/U: still coasting just under the weekly 200 EMA:

Tuesday 30th July (6.15 am) Adelaide
The indices have traded fairly flat:


 S&P500 choppy ahead of FOMC

E/U: signal closed but it is still lurking below the weekly 200 EMA

E/J: triangle break

A/U: bounced off trend line and has given a new signal to short BUT I’d be wary with this as it is sitting now back at strong support with the 0.92 level:

A/J: triangle break

EUR/AUD trying to give a new signal to LONG. need the 7am close to confirm:

G/U: this gives a new dimension to the term ‘channel surfing’!

Kiwi 4hr: the long signal closed.

Kiwi daily: This is still looking like forming a bullish ‘Cup and handle’ pattern. I mentioned over the w/e that I’d expect it to test the 0.80 level, which it did overnight. Now, to watch how it moves from here!

U/J: triangle break

I travel back to Canberra today so will update later.

Monday 29th July (2.55 pm) Adelaide
The indices haven’t moved much:


E/U: struggling at the weekly 200 EMA

There seems to be some Yen strength:



A/U: bounced off the trend line:

G/U: marking time

Kiwi: ditto here

Monday 29th July (9.30 am) Adelaide

I’m in Adelaide after an early flight. My FX index charts aren’t open yet. 
The E/U is still trading up and knocking on the door of the weekly 200 EMA:

The A/U looks bullish as it nudges the ‘flag’ trend line: 

A/J: still bouncing off its support trend line:

Kiwi: TS still going strong:

U/J:The daily chart shows a trend line break. You would need to see this close and hold though:

Gold and Silver are still in their triangles:


Remember it’s a busy week data wise: FOMC and NFP! These could really impact the USD and, thus, risk sentiment/appetite.