Trading Week 30/09/13

Fri 4th Oct (8 pm)

Cable: I have a signal to short here along with a trend line break:

Fri 4th Oct (4.45 pm)

Ichimoku Alignment: the index charts are once again aligned for ‘risk on’. I am watching out for new signals in line with this sentiment but, with the US Government shutdown, momentum has been low and this is reflected in the fact I have received very few TS signals this week.

Fri 4th Oct (6.45 am)

US Government shutdown woes have kept the USD down but has also kept any real momentum at bay. Prices are drifting but without much conviction:
USDX:

EURX:

E/U: looks set to close the day above the 1.36 level:
E/J: I’ve relaxed the top trend line here as price didn’t continue and no signal eveolved:
A/U:  hiding out below the 0.94 S/R level:

A/J:

G/U: looking like it might close below the daily support trend line and is trying to form a new TS short:
U/J: still below the daily triangle:

Swissie:

AUD/NZD:

Kiwi:

S&P500: closed below the support of 1,685 but is still above the support trend line:
I’m out for the day at the International Fleet Review.

Thurs 3rd Oct (7.50 pm)

E/U and E/J have had triangle breaks but no clean TS signal just yet:
E/U:
E/J:

Thurs 3rd Oct (4.50 pm)

Indices: The USDX continues to drift lower and the EURX has broken out of its bullish descending broadening wedge pattern:
USDX:

EURX:

EURX daily: the bullish ‘inverse H&S’ is still brewing here and might try and take on the bearish ‘triple top’:


Ichimoku alignment: the indices are working their way back to ‘risk on’ alignment. Strange and hard to believe yet true. A number of TS signals are trying to form up as well.

Thurs 3rd Oct (10 am)

S&P500: Much is being made in the pullback with stocks but I don’t see any real danger signals just yet.
 
SPX monthly: The monthly chart shows that price is still trading well above the previous 1,577 highs from 2000 and 2007 and, also, well above the monthly support trend line:
SPX daily: this chart also shows that price is holding above the recent new high of 1,685 and, also, above the daily support trend line. This support trend line is edging up closer to current price so is getting closer to being tested. I don’t have any TS sell signal on the daily chart either.
I’m not predicting the next move on this index. I don’t do that. I follow trends and I don’t see any dominant trend here just at the moment. I am conscious that markets fall faster than they rise so I am keeping a close eye on these charts.

Thurs 3rd Oct (6.20 am)

Indices: The USDX continues to drift down and the EURX drifts up. Why so many pairs so choppy then….because the EURX price action is stuck in the Daily Ichimoku Cloud:
USDX:

EURX:

EURX daily Ichimoku: 

S&P500: this index closed above key 1,685 support.
FX:
AUD/NZD: this signal looks set to close after giving just 80 pips:

Many pairs are sitting near important levels:
E/U: made a bullish triangle break and near the 1.36:

E/J:

A/U: back up near 0.94

A/J:

G/U:

U/J: the triangle break is holding for now:

Swissie: still near major support:
Kiwi: back attempting the 0.83 again:
No new TS signals yet though.

Wed 2nd Oct (3 pm)

Two of the three TS signals have closed off for losses. The A/U and E/A ech for a loss of 50 pips:
A/U:

E/A: 

The AUD/NZD signal has given up to 80 pips though:
U/J: it’s like this pair knows there’s a trend line there:


E/J: ditto here. Trending down BUT no TS signal:

E/U: seems to be biding it’s time before ECB rate news:
 
 
Euro pairs: caution needed here ahead of tonight’s ECB rate data.

Wed 2nd Oct (8 am)

AUD/NZD: this pair is really capturing my interest at the moment. It has been struggling at a ‘triple bottom’ level that happens to be the area of the 78.6% fib pullback level from the last major move up from the swing low  back in 2005 to the last swing high in 2011:
Last week’s bullish reversal ‘inverted hammer’ candle pointed to this week’s price action. Trading from that candle alone would have given you up to 150 pips! I am finding, more and more, that the weekly candle are very reliable indicators.

The daily chart is showing how a ‘triple bottom’ seems to have formed up here now:

I have had a signal to go LONG on this pair but you would need to be cautious ahead of the Aussie data later this morning.

Wed 2nd Oct (6.15 am)

U/J: Is this one awfully big, bullish ‘Cup and handle’ pattern forming up here on the weekly chart?

Wed 2nd Oct (6 am)

Well, as is more often than not the case, the first day of the trading month was a positive one for stocks, even with all of the global mayhem! The S&P500, as one measure of stocks, actually closed at 1695 and back above key 1,685 support:
The USDX is still fairly flat although the EURX is getting tetchy:
USDX:
EURX: sitting near the safety of the monthly pivot:
The TS signals from yesterday are down a bit but that isn’t surprising given they’d pretty much moved more than their recent daily range already by the time the signals had formed:
A/U:

E/A:

A/N:

Other pairs are coasting along:
E/U:

E/J:

Cable:

Kiwi:

U/J:

Swissie:

G/A:

Silver: has slipped below $21.50 support:

Gold: has also slipped and is below $1,300 support:

An observation from a fellow Aussie:
says perhaps the American government should hit CTRL-ALT-DEL and restart in safe mode?

Tuesday 1st Oct (8.30 pm)

Look what happens when I go out for a few hours!
A/U: triangle break
E/A: channel break:
A/N: triple bottom!
E/U: continuing in triangle for now:

U/J: looking heavy:

Tuesday 1st Oct (2 pm)

A/U: poised under the bear trend line ahead of RBA rate announcement. US budget concern might moderate movement here though:
I am out for the next few hours.

Tuesday 1st Oct (1 pm)

NUE: the monthly candle closed below the $50:

Tuesday 1st Oct (10.45 am): Lot’s of data today

Chinese PMI in 15 min and AUD rate data later.


Tuesday 1st Oct (9 am): Monthly Candles

Forex Monthly Candles: the monthly candles on a few of the FX pairs are worth noting:
USDX: bearish engulfing candle and just above Cloud:

EURX: small and bullish but just below the Cloud:

E/U: bullish engulfing and just under  fairly thin Cloud. Also note the bullish Tenkan/Kijun cross trying to form up:
E/J: large bullish and ‘engulfing’ and nearing top of Cloud:
A/U:  large bullish and almost ‘engulfing’ and working its way up through the Cloud:
A/J: large bullish and almost ‘engulfing’ and above the Cloud:
E/A: bearish and struggling at Kumo:
Cable: large bullish and taking on the Cloud:
Kiwi:  large bullish and almost ‘engulfing’ and has bounced off the Cloud:
U/J: ‘spinning top’ struggling to break out of Cloud:
Swissie: bearish engulfing and struggling to break into the Cloud:
AUD/NZD: bearish engulfing and well below the Cloud:
GBP/AUD: Doji but almost a bearish reversal-style ‘Hanging Man’ candle as it tries to break up though the Cloud:
Silver: bearish coloured ‘inside candle’ reflects indecision but below the Cloud:
Gold: bearish coloured ‘inside candle’ reflects indecision and in the Cloud:

Tuesday 1st Oct (6.30 am)

You’d think they were different days looking across from stocks to FX. The mood was definitely ‘risk off’ with stocks but that wasn’t quite the same with FX. The month and quarter have now closed and I’ll be checking over the monthly candles later today.
 
Indices: the USDX is still ‘planking’ but the EURX recovered much of the ground lost from the market-open gap lower:
USDX:

 

EURX: I’ve relaxed the trend lines here but the pattern is still looking bullish for now; a ‘descending broadening’ wedge:
S&P500: closed lower and below the 1,685 BUT it is still trading above the daily support trend line for now and the daily candle does have a bit of a bullish reversal ‘hammer’ look to it. Be aware of two things though:
  • any US budget resolution could send stocks higher and
  • the first day of the trading month is usually a positive day, more often than not.
Price is also still above the support of the Ichimoku Cloud:
FX: I have reviewed and revised many trend lines here in light of the large moves.
A/J: this signal has closed:
 
A/J revised: relaxing trend lines here gives a bit of a bullish looking ‘broadening descending wedge’ too!
E/U: still in the ascending wedge:

E/J:

A/U: still trading under the daily bear trend line. Has bounced nicely off the 38.2% fib from the last up move:

E/A: doing little:

Cable: that ‘Bull Flag’ might have knocked the ‘double top’ off!
Kiwi: looking bullish but no TS signal yet:
U/J daily: still triangle bound:
Swissie: not doing too much:
AUD/NZD: triple bottom under pressure again:
GBP/AUD: signal still open but not much movement:

Monday 30th Sept (7.10 pm)

E/U: no new TS signal here:

A/U: this TS signal has now closed:

Monday 30th Sept (4.50 pm)

S&P500 Ichimoku: Price is above the Cloud and this support is pretty much in line with the daily support trend line:
Cable: this ‘risk off’ mood might be enough to turn this Flag breakout into a ‘double top’!

Monday 30th Sept (4 pm)

‘Risk off’ still seems the main play given the US Congress budget and Italian political dramas.
S&P500: this is still down in pre-market and might give a daily chart TS signal to short if sentiment still weighs at market close.  I’d be watching the daily support trend line though:

AUD/NZD: I discussed this over the w/e and the possibility of support at the 1.12 level and triple bottom. We might be seeing the start of that formation now:

E/U: has my interest as it tries to form up a TS signal to short and make a trend line break:
Aussie pairs: these might be looking like the best of a bad bunch so I’d be wary holding these TS signals short and I’d have stops to entry:
A/U:

A/J:

Monday 30th Sept (11.05 am)

The concern about issues surrounding the Italian parliament has shaken up the the markets a bit this morning with significant gaps on a few charts. The mood seems to be one of ‘risk off’ today but care will be needed in case exuberance returns with any US budget resolution.
Stocks: I have posted a few more charts in my Stocks:Sept page.
Indices: The EURX has gapped lower on the Italian news but, a bit surprisingly, the USDX has held fairly flat:
USDX:

EURX:

S&P500: is down in pre-market:
The open TS signals are all in profit still:
A/U up over 30:

A/J up around 110:

G/A: up over 100:

The rest of the pairs:
E/U: down but still in the ascending triangle:
E/J: a huge gap lower but no TS here just yet:

E/A:

Cable: gave a new TS signal but it took too long to form so I’m not including it. The technical triangle break is up almost 100 pips but watch for any ‘double top’ jitters if ‘risk off’ sets in:

Kiwi: hovering

U/J: a big gap down:
Swissie: flat, like the USDX:

A/N: heading for that triple bottom region?