This page contains some screen shots of typical TC trades: NB: Please note that these shots show my simplified TC template only. This is not my full trading template that I use to confirm a new trade entry.
GBP/USD: this TC signal came following a channel breakout and has given up to 400 pips:
GBP/JPY: this TC signal came following a flag breakout and has also delivered up to 400 pips:
GBP/JPY: The GBP/JPY rallied and triggered a new TC signal on Wednesday that delivered up to 580 pips before closing off on the Friday! This was the chart of the GBP/JPY that I posted when the TC signal came through on my Wed 7am candle. The chart was posted just after the candle closed:
This rally also resulted in a bullish breakout from the weekly Flag pattern that I have had on my charts here for some weeks now. The TC signal delivered up to 580 pips:
4 hr chat with completed TS signal
EUR/AUD: The following TC signal was from the EUR/AUD and this TC signal came with the added confluence of a triangle break. This TC signal delivered up to 410 pips!
This has been another week of mixed 4 hr signal performance due to Ichimoku Cloud divergence on the Index charts. There have been great 30 min trades though during the US and late London session though. This remains the usual pattern during these Ichimoku divergent markets. Whilst frustrating, at least this regular pattern is of some comfort. Last night was no exception. There was a great 30 min trade on the E/U that gave up to 130 pips.
E/U: Up to 130 pips starting off in the London session:
E/U: I had been suspecting a bull flag breakout this night and this did indeed evolve during the US trading session:
The markets this week have been choppy due to Ichimoku Cloud divergence but there have been some good 30 min trading opportunities during the US session. The A/U gave 50 pips last night off the 30 min charts though:
The S&P500 also delivered an opportunity for a reasonable SPY trade. A TC signal came during when the S&P500 was at 1,512.71. I would have looked to buy the Feb $151 Call Option:
I had mentioned that there are often cases of good 30 min charting opportunities during these choppy markets. The Cable gave another good 110 + pip trade overnight:
Gold and Silver: Both of these have taken a tumble overnight and, sadly, also offered up good 30 min chart trades to SHORT.
Gold 30 min
E/J up to 330. This pair has yielded almost 700 pips since my Cloud alignment started on Friday of last week!
E/A up to 200. This pair has yielded 380 pips since my Cloud alignment started on Friday of last week!
Monday 14th January:
There have been some great TS signals to start the New Year for 2013:
A/J up 220:
EUR/AUD: up 180:
Tuesday 20th November: S&P500 intra day trade gives possible 70% ROIC!
The S&P500 ended up yielding a maximum of 160 pips overnight. There was a TS signal to ‘LONG” just before the US session. This signal came through when the index was at $1368.17:
Thus, if I was able to trade this, I would have bought the $137 Nov Call Option. This Option opened at $1.56 and closed up $1.11 to finish at $2.67:
This represents a return on invested capital of around 70%! ROIC= ($1.11/$1.56) x 100 = 71%
There were also great 30 min chart trades on Gold and Silver:
Monday 5th Nov 815 pips so far from TS signals since last Friday!
I’ve been looking over the TS ‘risk off’ signals that are currently in play. It is interesting to see how much the various pairs have moved. The total (maximum) pip tally from these moves, so far, is a whopping 815!
E/U has moved 100:
Swissie: has moved 70:
G/U has moved 90:
Gold has moved 350:
The first week on November was marked by divergence across the index Ichimoku Cloud charts. As is often the case, these periods tend to be marked by choppy trades on the 4hr time frames but with great trades from the shorter time frame 30 min charts noted during the London and US trading sessions. This day was a perfect example of this with great 30 min chart trades on the E/U, G/U, Swissie, Silver and Gold. see charts below:
There was also a great trade on the S&P500 overnight. The chart below shows how the ADX would have stopped you from entering a ‘LONG’ trade but helped you to get into a profitable ‘SHORT’ trade:
Thursday 01/11/12 53% ROIC on an intra day SPY trade:There was another great intra day trade on the SPY ETF possible on the first day of the month for November. Statistically the first day of the trading month is more often positive than not and some traders use this knowledge as a basis of their trading. A very low risk: high return trade it was indeed. I got a TS ‘LONG’ signal on the S&P500 during the US trading session when the index was at $1406.14:
This is the maximum possible gain as it would all depend on the ETF price at the time of purchase but I think you get the picture here!
Friday 20/10/12: 77% (maximum) possible on a SPY ‘short’ day trade:There was an amazing opportunity for a low risk, intra-day trade on the SPY last night. There had been little movement on the S&P500 for the previous two nights and, add to this, some poor Earnings news, and you had a perfect set up for a SPY ‘short’ trade.A TS signal to go ‘SHORT’ came through during the US session when the S&P500 was at $1444.68:
I would then have looked to buy the Nov SPY $144 Put @ $1.51.This Put Option increased in value throughout the trading session to up to $2.67. This represents an increase of $1.16:
I have sometimes referred to this gain as ROR, Return on Risk. This is not entirely accurate though. Whilst I imagine it would be ‘possible’ I do suspect it is very unlikely that an Option would ever fall to a value of ‘zero’ during one trading session. Thus, whilst the purchase price here of $1.51 is ‘at risk’, it is unlikely that you would lose the whole $1.51 in one day if the trade went against you. Sure, you could easily lose 0.50 cents which would represent a risk, and subsequent loss, of around 30% but I would most likely close the trade at that point, if not before.I am not in a position, just yet, to day trade the S&P500 and I would need to determine clear and concise ‘stop loss’ exit values for trades that do not work out. The ADX would be my guide here, as always though, but you can see on the above chart that the ADX did not stop to draw a breath on Friday!I need to also stress here that I working with back data and these values represent a maximum possible gain. It is unlikely that one ever gets in at the extreme top and bottom of a particular move. For example, in this trade above, the SPY $144 Put would no doubt have moved in price from the open price but the gains on this trade would still be very substantial!
Wednesday 17th October 2012
This was another fantastic opportunity for an intra-day SPY ETF trade. A TS ‘LONG’ signal came in the late London/US session and yielded a clean, low risk 100+ pips.
This TS ‘LONG’ signal came through when the S&P500 was at $1436.23. Thus, I would have looked to buy the Nov $144 Call Option. This Option increased by 90 cents overnight! It opened at $2.43 and closed at $3.33.
The maximum possible Return on Risk for this trade, for just one session, was a whopping 37%. see below:ROR = (0.90/2.43) x 100 = 37%! For just one trading session and a low risk trade!
The US session on Wed 10th October provided another great low risk opportunity to trade the SPY ETF intra-day on the S&P500. A clear TS signals to ‘short’ the SPY came during the US session when price was at the 1432.50 level. Thus, I would then look to buy a November $143 PUT. The PUT cost was $2.23 and this closed at $2.53, an increase of 30 cents. This represents a ROR gain of 13.5% for the low risk, short trade for just one day!
- Buy Nov $143 Put at $2.23
- Sell Nov $143 Put @ $2.53
- Profit = 0.30 cents
ROIC = profit/risk ROIC= (0.30 cents/ $2.23) x 100 ROIC= 13.5%
NB: This represents the maximum possible gain on this $143 ETF for the day. I have used ‘end of day’ and midpoint data to illustrate this example.
I posted a warning to watch out for a potential breakout on the EUR/AUD before the TS signal came through on this pair. The TS signal then came with the added confluence of a major trend line break. The move went for 300 pips and is still running!
There was a great TS ‘Long’ trade possible on the 30 min charts with the A/U during the London/US session. 100 pips so far and still running!
There were a few great TS trend trades off 30 min charts after the ECB news release last night:
A/J 100 pips:
E/J 60 pips:
29/09/12: This month has been quite choppy but at least I had the Ichimoku charts to give me some warning that this was coming:
Last April when price was similarly stuck in the cloud on the daily charts I found trading was safest off the 30 min charts. This pattern is holding true again in August. 4 hr trend trading has been poor for the 1,2 and this the 4th week of August. There have been some ok trend trades off the 30 min charts though. The E/U and Swissie gave two trades last night:
August is proving to be another choppy month for longer term trend trading like it was back in April. I’ve noticed, that like back in April, trading is best and safest from shorter term charts when it’s choppy like it has been. There were two great examples of this last night on the 30 min charts:
The E/U gave up to 100 pips:
Whilst the choppy markets are a bit annoying it is good to see that known strategies can be applied to these conditions to enable some trading!
These pairs are just some that gave great and easy trend trades last night on the shorter time frame charts. This was a night where the sentiment changed from ‘risk on’ to ‘risk off’. I often find that trading from the shorter time frames is more successful during these periods of market flux! These trades kicked in during the later London or US session. Remember, the left hand side of the blue box denotes the Asian session, the right half, the London session and then the rest is the US session:
E/U 100 pips: