The FX indices have essentially traded sideways to start the week and, apart from a spike with Gold and Silver, most FX pairs have chopped sideways too. The Aussie keeps trying to break higher though and remains resilient for the time being.
There is a bit of data to navigate today with EUR Ifo Business Climate, US Consumer Confidence and an ECB Draghi and BoE Carney speech.
USDX: holding above 98.50 but not going too much higher just yet. Watch with today’s data though:
EURX: holding up so far this week and watch the 100 level today with the EUR and US data:
Yesterday’s TC Signal Results: the results from yesterday were pretty ordinary.
- There were three SHORT US$ trades that triggered early in the European session that limped along in slightly positive territory for a while before eventually fading. I’ve called these FLAT and they were on the A/U LONG, EUR/USD LONG and GBP/USD LONG.
- There was also a SHORT on the USD/CAD but that never got going and just went sideways before closing off for a LOSS.
- There was a LONG on the EUR/NZD that went over 50 pips before closing off as one WIN.
More bitter sweet for me today in that three signals triggered already during the Asian session on the A/U, A/J and Kiwi for LONG:
A/U: this keeps trying to get above the major bear trend line. Any success could see this take off…despite all the sellers lining up here. Tomorrow brings AUD CPI data and this might be a deciding factor here:
A/J: note also the Bull Flag style break on the 4hr that I had warned about over the w/e. The 80 level will be a tough one though but watch with tomorrow’s AUD CPI data:
E/U: watch today for any breakout with US data and the Draghi speech :
EUR/GBP: a bit wary here with Brexit news and all but this weekly bearish pattern is rather interesting still. Watch for any make or break activity away from the 0.89 level. Watch today with the ECB Draghi and BoE Carney speeches:
E/J: trying to break up and out of a longer-term triangle. Watch with Draghi:
GBP/USD: a nice pattern so watch for any breakout but Brexit looms, as always, as a potential curve-ball. Watch with the BoE Carney speech:
USD/JPY: has broken the 4hr Flag but I think a break of the previous high needs to be seen before being confident of any continuation move here. Continued moves higher with stocks could drag this along for the ride though:
USD/CAD: pretty undecided for now and hugging that major trend line:
EUR/CAD: choppy here for now but watch today with Draghi:
EUR/NZD: choppy and no recent clear-cut signal:
EUR/AUD: a triangle breakdown might be on the way but no clean-cut signal. Watch today with Draghi though:
Gold: spiked yesterday but back above the $1,265 level:
Silver 4hr: holding above that support trend line still for now: