Two steps forward and one step back?

The idiom of ‘two steps forward and one step back’ is as relevant to trading as it may be to other aspect of day to day living. In fact, this is essentially the logic underpinning Elliott Wave theory. I mention this today because whilst I might be one of the few who are optimistic about the recent commodity comeback, or at least bounce, I’m not expecting any moves to evolve in a straight line. We may see a bit of ‘two steps forward and one step back’ with some of these charts!

There hasn’t been too much movement so far this week given the public holiday Monday in the USA, Canada and Japan. The US$ index and EURX have barely moved. There is important data today though with CNY Trade Balance and AUD Business Confidence and so this may get things moving a bit during the Asian session. There is GBP CPI and EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment after that to deal with.


E/U 4hr: not doing much yet:


EUR/JPY: no triangle breakout yet:

E/J 4hr:


E/J daily:


AUD/USD: this looks set to make a daily close above the 0.735 level BUT I’m open to the possibility of a pullback here to test the congested 0.715 region. This is near the 4hr 200 EMA and 61.8% fib of the recent swing high move. Watch for impact from today’s AUD and CNY data:

A/U 4hr: 0.735 is important recent S/R and the neck line of the potential daily chart ‘Double Bottom’. There is some divergence evident with recent price action and this is making me think we could possibly see a bit of a pull back here, even if there is to be overall bullish continuation. Either that, or it’s just due to lower volumes so far this week?:


A/U daily: any failure to pull back though would support the bullish ‘Double Bottom’ pattern with the neck line break at 0.735:


AUD/JPY 4hr: this too could pull back a bit before any continuation. Note the bit of recent divergence here as well. Watch for impact from today’s AUD and CNY data :


Cable 4hr: not doing too much but watch for tonight’s CPI data:


Kiwi: This pair is still holding near the key 0.67 level. As with some of the other pairs I’m seeing some divergence and so thinking we could be in for a bit of a pull back here, even if there is to be overall bullish continuation. Two steps forward…one step back? Watch for impact from today’s CNY data:

Kiwi 4hr: 0.67 is key but any pull back would have me looking for a test of the 61.8% fib area near the 4hr 200 EMA:


Kiwi daily: any pull back on the 4hr chart would help to shape up the bullish ‘inverse H&S’ I’m seeing on the daily chart:


USD/JPY 4hr: doing little at the moment:


GBP/JPY 4hr: ditto here but at least it is holding above 184:


USD/CAD: this has pulled back to test the 1.30 level which is no surprise as this is a MAJOR S/R region. I’m also open to even more of a pull back here though and the 50% fib is near the 4hr 200 EMA and could be a target for any deeper pull back:

USD/CAD 4hr: will it sop at 1.30 or pull back further?


USD/CAD daily: any 4hr chart pull back though could still fit in with the larger, bearish move to test 1.25 on the daily. Two steps forward…one step back?


EUR/NZD weekly: still thinking we’ll head lower here…eventually:


GBP/NZD daily: ditto here:


GBP/AUD daily: ditto here too:


EUR/AUD daily: ditto here too:


Silver weekly: no bullish weekly wedge breakout just yet: 


Gold weekly: the bullish wedge breakout is on the go here BUT I’m still thinking this could test the broken trend line region near $1,145 / 1,150 again before bullish continuation: