Upbeat US economic data continues to fail to launch the US$ higher and this divergence must surely be worrying US$ Bulls. I’m an agnostic here but have not failed to note how the US$ is struggling to breach resistance despite help from US data and various Fed speakers talking up the US rate hike agenda. This is most likely why the precious metals, Silver and Gold, are holding up so well but I still think we need to see a clean US$ break higher or lower before we’ll see better movement across on FX markets.
USDX daily: above 100 support but below resistance from 102 and the daily Ichimoku Cloud. This could be one big Bull Flag forming but, until there is a break of trend line, its just consolidating.
Trend line breakouts so far this week:There have been three: Gold, GBP/AUD (now closed) and GBP/NZD. Silver continues to hold up and out after last week’s breakout.
Gold 4hr: this breakout took until the US session to trigger but has moved around 70 pips. The break of trend line also came with a new 15 min TC signal:
Gold 15 min:
Silver 4hr: no pull back here thus far following the break of this multi-year bear tend line:
Remember, a 6-year bear trend line has been broken here as the weekly Silver chart reveals:
GBP/AUD 4hr: this gave 80 pips before stalling at the daily chart bear trend line I had highlighted in my w/e analysis.
GBP/NZD 4hr: this broke to the downside during the US session after testing the upper trend line during the Asian session. The 15 min chart would have been useful for tracking this move once the lower trend line was under pressure:
G/N 15 min:
TSLA: I Tweeted over the w/e about TSLA noting that any weekly close above $280 would be rather bullish. This level has been peppered since mid 2014 but without managing to hold a weekly close. Here is the weekly chart from that Tweet:
Here is how the chart is looking this morning following some upbeat TSLA data that helped to lift the share price over the $280 threshold. Watch for a weekly close above this level to help support the start of the next trading range for this stock with $280 being the new base:
EUR/GBP daily: I missed updating this pair on the w/e but I note there has been a daily chart SHORT TC signal received although I’d rather see a break of trend line and the daily 200 EMA support first:
EUR/USD 4hr: not much happening yet:
EUR/JPY 4hr: drifting lower:
AUD/USD 4hr: holding at daily support ahead of today’s AUD Trade Balance and RBA rate update:
AUD/JPY 4hr: back down at the daily support trend line ahead of today’s AUD TRade Balance and RBA meeting:
NZD/USD 4hr: drifting higher but watch to see if tonight’s GDT Price Index data impacts here:
GBP/USD 4hr: this is also holding up and out from the daily chart triangle breakout. Watch the smaller 4hr trend lines for any make or break with today’s GBP Construction PMI data:
USD/JPY 4hr: consolidating:
GBP/JPY: I Tweeted last night about this pair and this was the 60 min chart from that Tweet:
This is the 60 min chart from today though showing the bottom trend line finally giving way during the US session:
So, it seems we are back to consolidating on the 4hr chart after thinking there might have had a bullish breakout:
USD/CAD 4hr: a bit of a breakout here? Watch with today’s CAD Trade Balance data:
The 15 min USD/CAD chart would have been some help yesterday:
EUR/AUD 4hr: holding above trend line support for now:
EUR/NZD 4hr: drifting lower:
USD/MXN 4hr: consolidating under the key 19 level:
USD/CNH 4hr: consolidating here too:
USD/TRY 4hr: ditto here: