The ASX-200 has lagged well behind many global stock indices in recovery efforts following the Global Financial Crisis but this might all be about to change!
The major US indices have all broken back above their previous Highs following troughs after the GFC, but, not so the ASX-200. The S&P500, DJIA and Russell-2000 indices have also completed ascending triangle breakout moves and the NASDAQ recently embarked of one of its own. The ASX-200 though, whilst not yet started on any ascending triangle breakout, does look to have triggered a symmetrical triangle breakout and also a Cup 'n' Handle breakout suggesting that new bullish momentum looks to be building here.
S&P500 monthly: pulled back from its 1,600 High with the GFC but has now rallied well past this level:
DJIA monthly: dito:
NASDAQ monthly: pulled back from its tech-boom High and retreated again with the GFC but has now rallied up past this 5,200 level following a recent ascending triangle breakout:
Russell-2000 monthly: pulled back from its 880 High with the GFC but has now rallied well past this level:
XJO monthly (ASX-200): no ascending triangle breakout here yet but there has been a symmetrical triangle breakout and, also, a recent Cup 'n' Handle breakout. The bear trend line of this triangle had been in play for the last 10 years and so this is a major achievement and, to add some confidence here, note also the slight uptick with the ADX. Things might be staring to gear-up on this index!
The 6,000 level is a significant psychological hurdle to navigate though so keep an eye on this level for any new make or break. Any new weekly close above 6,000 would be rather bullish however and would bring the 6,800 S/R level into focus.
Any bullish breakout above 6,800 would suggest the start of an ascending triangle breakout and would bring the 10,400 level into focus.
XJO weekly (ASX-200): note the recent Cup 'n' Handle breakout and note also the ADX momentum here; a rather bullish bias for now. Keep an eye on the 6,000 level for any new make or break:
XJO daily (ASX-200): a test of 6,000 seems certain here:
ASX-200 4hr: watch the 6,000 level for any new make or break:
Summary: the ASX-200 has lagged many other global stock indices in recovery efforts following the GFC. However, the recent breakout above a 10-year bear trend line and a Cup 'n' Handle breakout suggest that the index might be starting to try to correct this imbalance. The 6,000 level will be a significant test for the ASX-200 and is the one to watch for any new make or break. A bullish breakout above 6,000 though will bring 6,800, as the previous High, and then 10,400, as the triangle breakout target, into focus.