A/U & Ichimoku Cloud: food for thought!

April 16, 2014

I've noticed lately how the Aussie seems to have been pretty easy to trade from just a 4 hr Ichimoku Cloud perspective.

Price has been above the 4hr Cloud for much of the last 7 weeks. During that time there have been 4 bullish Tenkan/Kijun crosses and these crosses, even those that were below or in the Cloud, led to reasonable gains. Bullish crosses above the Cloud were more profitable though. The bullish Tenkan/Kijun crosses are noted with arrows on the chart below:

 

A/U 4 hr Ichimoku

These bullish crosses were the preferred trades on the Aussie as price was above the 4 hr Cloud for much of that time and also above the daily Cloud:

 

A/U daily Ichimoku

 

Thus, long trades taken following these bullish Tenkan/Kiju crosses, and once price was above both the 4hr and daily Cloud, provided fairly safe trading opportunities.

The A/U is still trading above the Ichimoku Cloud on the 4hr and daily chart so it would be wise to watch out for any new bullish Tenkan/Kijun cross.

There might be a bit of resistance for the Aussie now though as price is butting right up against the bottom of the weekly Ichimoku Cloud. A/U traders will remember this region of the A/U weekly Cloud as it helped to form the target of the previous bullish 'inverse H&S' pattern that completed on the Aussie recently. This recent bullish technical pattern move netted 400 pips! Note the weekly Cloud mass now is rather broad and bearish coloured so it won't be easy going for the A/U, even if it does manage to break up into the Cloud:

A/U weekly Ichimoku
The monthly Ichimoku chart for the Aussie show how price has been battling the Cloud for many months:
A/U monthly Ichimoku
 

Summary: The main point to take from all of this though is that the A/U is still trading above the Ichimoku Cloud on the 4hr and daily chart so it would be wise to watch out for any new bullish Tenkan/Kijun cross.