Monday 29th April 2013.
The only two other such crosses in the last 12 months resulted in pull backs for general risk appetite.
S&P500 update May 21st 2013:
A weak bearish signal was noted on the S&P500 at the end of April, as discussed above. That involved a bearish Tenkan/Kijun cross but it was above the Cloud. These bearish signals are not deemed as strong as crosses that occur below the Cloud though. In fact, it was only a few days later when this weak bearish signal faded and a stronger, bullish Tenkan/Kijun cross was noted. Bullish crosses like this that occur above the Cloud are deemed to be strong signals:
My charts revealed a BUY signal when price finally broke through the $400 back in December 2011. The charts also gave a SELL signal in October 2012 and this came with a daily support trend line break:
The Ichimoku chart for Apple tracks very closely to my own charting. December 2011 shows a bullish Tenkan/Kijun cross and October 2012 shows a bearish cross:
The point I note here too is that there are no bullish signals yet and price is still trading below the Cloud so, I wouldn't be jumping in LONG here just yet. I'd rather wait for confirmation!
Update for AAPL as of May 21st 2013
My conventional charting package showed a potential bullish trend line break towards the start of May:
I decided to check this breakout pattern against that of the Ichimoku Chart. I noted on the Ichimoku chart that the resistance zone was somewhat more broad than the finite descending bear trend line of my own charts. I noted too how that Apple had not yet been able to break up through the Ichimoku Cloud. In fact, a convincing break of the Ichimoku Cloud did not really set in until August:
The 'take away' learning for me from this exercise has been to cross check my conventional stock charts and any breakout patterns against the Ichimoku charts to assess for confluence. In the case of AAPL I am now aware that there may be more potential upside given the trend line break. I would be waiting for a close above the Ichimoku Cloud though before taking any LONG trades on AAPL.
CAT: CAT has broken down from a weekly triangle pattern but is being held up by $80 support:
A bearish signal came through on the Ichimoku chart as CAT bounced off the triangle trend line. CAT is now trading below the Cloud and without giving any new bullish reversal signal just yet. Thus, I'd be very wary trading Puts here unless you are happy to be assigned shares as it may still have further to fall. The stock might bounce back from here but I'd want to see clear signs of this first:
Update for CAT as of May 21st 2013:
CAT has continued to hold up above the $80 support but has yet to break up through the Ichimoku Cloud. Thus, I'd still be wary that this stock may continue to pull back.
MCD: This stock made a bullish triangle breakout in January:
I note that there was a bullish Tenkan/Kijun cross on MCD just prior to this breakout:
EBAY: I have been selling Puts on EBAY for some months now as this stocks trades within a trading channel. I had been happily selling Puts at levels below the trend channel:
I note on the Ichimoku chart for EBAY though that there has been a couple of bearish Tenkan/Kijun crosses lately and price is trading below the daily Cloud. I definitely won't be selling Puts on EBAY under these circumstances:
CPB: I noted a triangle break and a buy signal back in Aug 2012 with CPB:
The Ichimoku chart reveals a bullish Tenkan/Kijun cross just prior to August :
TGT: I noted a bullish triangle break for Target back in late February:
I now can see that there was a bullish Tenkan/Kijun cross for Target a little earlier than that though, back in January:
YUM: this stock has been trading in an ascending triangle for some time now. Put selling under the trend line may have seemed safe:
I now note that YUM has given a bearish Tenkan/Kijun cross AND is trading in the Cloud. I'd be wary selling Puts here unless you want to own the stock:
PEP: I noted a bullish triangle break for Pepsi back in mid February:
I also now note that Pepsi gave a bullish Tenkan/Kijun cross just prior to that, in mid January:
I now note that the Ichimoku chart gave a bullish Tenkan/Kijun back then as well and that price has traded above the Cloud since then and without any other bearish signals yet: