I have been running a trial of my TC Trading system throughout June and July of this year and I have been encouraging participants to be selective about which TC signals they trade. I have asked them to try and focus on TC Optimal trade. A TC Optimal trade is one where a NEW TC signal evolves along with a 4hr chart-based trend line breakout and this article contains a discussion and example of this type of set-up.
Example: USD/TRY
The USD/TRY had been forming up within a 4hr chart flag pattern during July 2017 as noted in the following post.
USD/TRY 4hr: There was a Bull Flag type pattern setting up on the USD/TRY as shown below. I would have expected traders to monitor these trend lines on the lower time frame 15 minute chart and to watch for any New TC signal that might form along with a tend line breakout. A 'New' TC signal is one that forms when price action moves through the Cloud and these types of signals generally offer the need for a smaller Stop and, thus, offer better Reward to Risk advantage:
USD/TRY 15 min: Following the chart update in the blog article there was a subsequent trend line breakout that was closely followed by a NEW TC LONG signal. The required STOP for this trade was just 25 pips and this was an ideal set up or what I refer to as an OPTIMAL TC trade.
In summary, an OPTIMAL TC signal trade is one:
- that triggers with a NEW TC signal.
- where the TC signal evolves with a new 4hr chart-based trend line breakout.
- that emerges out of relatively quiet and sideways price action.
- that only needs a small initial STOP.
Note how this particular trade set up ticked ALL of those boxes!
USD/TRY 15 min: this trade went on to give 300 pips for a 12 R trade. The value of R is calculated as the ratio of the REWARD for the amount of RISK taken. The REWARD on this trade was up to 300 pips and dividing this value by the Stop value of 25 pips gives an outcome of 12. That means the REWARD was 12 x the required RISK:
Summary: The TC Trading System uses the TC Trigger to help identify new trades. I always urge traders to watch and patiently wait for the ideal trade set up to evolve. Such a trade set up is referred to as an OPTIMAL TC trade and this is one:
- that triggers with a NEW TC signal.
- where the TC signal evolves with a new 4hr chart-based trend line breakout.
- that emerges out of relatively quiet and sideways price action.
- that only needs a small initial STOP.