US stocks: thoughts going in to 2015 trading.

The four main US stock indices, S&P500, DJIA, NASDAQ and Russell 2000, have all been in recovery mode since the end of the Global Financial Crisis. All four have held above monthly support trend lines but there are technical indicators suggesting a pull back is in store on all of them. I would greet any pull back with optimism though as the longer term picture on all indices is bullish.

S&P500

The index has been bullish since the end of the GFC and broke through previous highs near 1,600 in early 2013. Price has rallied since making that bullish triangle breakout. The Elliott Wave indicator on my monthly chart has been suggesting for some time now that a deep pull back is due. The December candle just closed has printed a bearish-reversal 'Hanging Man' candle but traders need to be aware that similar bearish reversal candles were printed back in January and July of 2014 without any bearish follow through. I am on the lookout for a pull back on this index though and any move down to 1,600 wouldn't have me worried....it would have me excited!

S&P500 monthly: IMHO: a pull back to test the breakout 1,600 region would offer good buying opportunity as the index trades in an overall bullish market:

S&Pmonthly

S&P500 monthly Cloud: gave a weak bullish signal back in April 2010 and has been heading up since then:

S&PmonthlyCloud

S&P500 weekly: Holding well above the weekly Cloud. This gave a strong bullish signal in Dec 2014 that is still open. Both the Tenkan and Kijun lines are angled upwards supporting this signal:

S&P500weeklyCloud

S&P500 daily: This gave a strong bullish signal in Dec 2014 BUT the flat Kijun line (pink) is yet to support this signal fully:

S&PdailyCloud

DJIA

The DJIA is not all that dissimilar to the S&P500. The index has been bullish since the end of the GFC and also broke out from its previous high of 14,000 back in early 2013. Elliott Wave suggests a pull back here too and and I would see any dip as bargain buying opportunity.

DJIA monthly: The December candle here was bearish-reversal pin bar candle but, as with the S&P500, there have been others before that didn't give any decent bearish follow through (Jan 2014). IMHO: A pull back to test the breakout 14,000 region would offer good buying opportunity as the index trades in an overall bullish market:

DJIAmonthly

DJIA monthly Cloud: gave a weak buy signal in May 2010 and has been open since then:

DJIAmonthlyCloud

DJIA weekly: gave a strong buy signal in Dec 2014. Both the Tenkan and Kijun lines are angle upwards supporting this signal:

DJIAweeklyCloud

DJIA daily: This also gave a strong bullish signal in Dec 2014 BUT the flat Kijun line (pink) is yet to support this signal fully:

DJIAdailyCloud

NASDAQ

The NASDAQ has also been in recovery mode since the GFC but, unlike the S&P500 and DJIA, it has not made a monthly/yearly break above its previous high of 4,800. I'm on the lookout for this index to keep testing this region and to make an eventual breakout at some point and to follow the S&P500 and DJIA but it may take a few more dips and consolidate prior to any bullish continuation.

NASDAQ monthly: Like the S&P500, this index printed a bearish-reversal 'Hanging Man' candle for December. IMHO: A pull back to test the support trend line would offer good buying opportunity though as the index trades in an overall bullish market:

NASDAQmonthly

NASDAQ monthly Cloud: this gave a weak bullish signal in early 2010 too:

NASDAQmonthlyIchi

NASDAQ weekly Cloud: gave a strong signal in Dec 2014 but the flat Kijun (pink) line has yet to kick in and support the signal.

NASDAQweeklyIchi

NASDAQ daily Cloud: This gave a strong bullish signal in Dec 2014 BUT the flat Kijun line (pink) is yet to support this signal fully:

NASDAQdailyIchi

Russell 2000:

The US small caps index has also been in recovery mode since the GFC and has held above a monthly support trend line. The Elliott Wave indicator suggests a pull back here too and, like with the S&P500 and DJIA, this pull back target is near the breakout region and for the Russell 2000 this was near the 880 level.

Russell 2000 monthly: Unlike the other three indices, the Russell 2000 printed a bullish, almost bullish engulfing, candle for December. As the 'Canary in the coal mine' for US stocks this suggests some hope that any correction may not be too deep. It has been bullish since the GFC and broke out above previous 880 high region in Jan 2013. IMHO: a pull back to test the breakout 880 region would offer good buying opportunity as the index trades in an overall bullish market:

RUTmonthly

Russell 2000 monthly Cloud: this index gave a strong bullish signal in July 2012 that is still open:

RUTmonthlyCloud

Russell 2000 weekly Cloud: gave a neutral bullish signal in Dec 2014:

RUTweeklyCloud

Russell 2000 daily Cloud: gave a strong bullish signal in Dec 2014 but the flat Kijun (pink) line has yet to kick in and support the signal.

RUTdailyCloud

VIX: The 'Fear Index'

The Volatility or 'Fear' index is trading higher but is still under the 30 level for now. Any breakout above 30 would be a warning signal for stocks:

VIXweekly

The Ichimoku weekly chart shows that the index, whilst below 30, is above the Cloud BUT gave a 'weak' bearish cross back in December 2014. Any new bullish cross above the Cloud would be a significant warning signal for stocks:

VIXweeklyCloud

VIX monthly Cloud: the monthly Cloud chart shows that the VIX has been below the Cloud since the GFC but price is drifting up towards this problematic region:

VIXmonthlyCloud

TLT: Treasury Bond ETF

The Treasury Bond ETF has given two separate bullish breakout signals: a bullish triangle breakout and a bullish Cup 'n' Handle breakout. 

TLT weekly: The Elliott Wave indicator suggests a pull back here BUT if stocks suffer any dip I would expect this ETF to continue on its bullish path:

TLTweekly

TLT weekly Cloud:this actually gave a bullish signal back in March 2014 and has continued on since then:

TLTweeklyCloud