That ‘risk on’ shift is getting underway.

I wrote the other day wondering about a shift to ‘risk-on’ and this sentiment shift seems to be getting underway. Stocks, Commodities and the Commodity currencies are all enjoying some classic style ‘risk-on‘ at the moment. I’m keeping an eye on the US$ to see if this might last.

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Slow-mo action as S&P500 attempts a breakout.

The US$ is a bit weaker but the S&P500, Oil, the A/U, E/U and Kiwi are all bit higher in what appears to be general slow-motion activity whilst the S&P500 carves out new 2016 highs. There is CNY Trade Balance data out today that might shake things up though so keep an eye on this during the Asian session.

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Weaker US$ begs the question: some Risk-On on the way?

Janet Yellen’s soothing words about the jobs market helped to lift US stocks but did little for the US$. The US$ index looks likely to close the day with a bearish candle and is trying to avoid falling below the support of the weekly Ichimoku Cloud and this bearish bias must be perplexing for US$ Bulls. With the US$ lower but the U/J, stocks, Oil Gold and A/U higher, it looks like a bit of classic style ‘risk-on’ could be trying to emerge. Of particular interest, to me at least, was that the USD/JPY traded higher on the day, perhaps preferring to run with stocks than the US$?

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FX, SPX & Gold: Was NFP enough to shift the US$ paradigm?

Last week: Friday’s NFP result was much weaker than expected and this news sent the US$ tumbling from the key resistance level it had recently stalled at. This US$ shift triggered movement with a number of currency pairs and commodities and I have posted charts of some of these in this update for consideration. The big question now is, as I see it at least, has this NFP result been enough of a miss to undermine the recent US$ rally?

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